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Old 01-04-2008, 12:11 PM   #316
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Quote:
Originally posted by deep


I have very low expectations for Obama

and if he gets the Dem nomination
I expect to vote for him
...
so Obama, if you get the nom
please be like Clinton in 92
and surprise me with skills beyond my estimation.
I'm right there with you.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:37 PM   #317
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Originally posted by coemgen
That’s the Rock the Vote political wet dream that never ever comes true… actually coming true.
What this portends for Obama as a national candidate is something truly special. He’s not only proven that he can draw the support of independents and open-minded Republicans. He’s the one guy who can make the Democratic pie higher, bringing new, unlikely voters into the fold. If he could replicate this kind of support among young people in a general election, it’s game over.
Rock the Vote is so 2004. The internet/youtube are much bigger factors among the younger voters now, as people like Jim Webb and Ron Paul can attest. Hillary's support among independent males is very low compared to Obama - the next few weeks will be interesting.
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Old 01-04-2008, 01:35 PM   #318
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Quote:
Originally posted by joyfulgirl
[q]Originally posted by deep


I have very low expectations for Obama

and if he gets the Dem nomination
I expect to vote for him
...
so Obama, if you get the nom
please be like Clinton in 92
and surprise me with skills beyond my estimation.[/q]



I'm right there with you.
Actually, I'd prefer Clinton in the last six years of his presidency, when he was remarkably effective in governing from the center and pragmatic with his policies, rather than the disastrous first two years of his presidency, when he couldn't get anything done.

While I am an Obama supporter, and would probably vote for him in a Huckabee v. Obama showdown, I don't think it's necessarily racist to question his credentials. Someone pointed out here that Bush didn't have credentials to be president, but I'm not sure that anyone wants to see a replica of the Bush years. It's why I won't vote for Huckabee -- his lack of foreign policy experience is terrifying, given the world we live in.

While this election does seem to be about change rather than experience, I do think some experience would be helpful, particularly given what we face today.

However, Obama strikes me as a humble guy who would seek out true voices of wisdom, rather than ideologues with a Middle Eastern axe to grind.
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Old 01-04-2008, 01:43 PM   #319
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Originally posted by nathan1977


Actually, I'd prefer Clinton in the last six years of his presidency, when he was remarkably effective in governing from the center and pragmatic with his policies, rather than the disastrous first two years of his presidency, when he couldn't get anything done.

While I am an Obama supporter, and would probably vote for him in a Huckabee v. Obama showdown, I don't think it's necessarily racist to question his credentials. Someone pointed out here that Bush didn't have credentials to be president, but I'm not sure that anyone wants to see a replica of the Bush years. It's why I won't vote for Huckabee -- his lack of foreign policy experience is terrifying, given the world we live in.

While this election does seem to be about change rather than experience, I do think some experience would be helpful, particularly given what we face today.

However, Obama strikes me as a humble guy who would seek out true voices of wisdom, rather than ideologues with a Middle Eastern axe to grind.
I agree with everything you said, except I know there's not a snowball's chance in hell that I'd vote for Huckabee. I especially like your last paragraph about Obama.
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Old 01-04-2008, 02:16 PM   #320
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The results of Iowa raise some questions that I don't think are being asked, or asked enough.

Obama took the female vote away from Clinton - is this the result of Oprah? If so, how much will she help in the future?

Romney lost big with Evangelicals. Did his Mormon faith hurt him?

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Old 01-04-2008, 03:09 PM   #321
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What is remarkable, is here are those pinko American-hating French.....with Obama all over the Parisian papers, and complimentary stories inside.

Le Monde for example.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:12 PM   #322
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Originally posted by nathan1977


However, Obama strikes me as a humble guy who would seek out true voices of wisdom, rather than ideologues with a Middle Eastern axe to grind.
Hmm. I don't think humble people write books about themselves and run for President of the USA. I wouldn't go so far as to call any Presidential candidate humble--not even Nader. Enormous egos and a thirst for power, all of them.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:13 PM   #323
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Originally posted by Irvine511


they mean nothing. Clinton has a double digit lead over Obama. i think McCain is rising, no question, but he's got the south to deal with, and Giuliani has huge margins in Florida, California, and New Jersey, though i do think he's now DOA.


[q]The House of Representitives has been overwhelmingly Democratic since World War II, but its been more equal in the Senate. The House of Representitives is a different ball game than the President of the United States. The majority of Americans cannot even name their Representitive. Also, conservative Democrats in the south helped keep their majority through the years, and although many of them may have been Democrats in name, many were certainly more supportive of Repuplican polices as the "Reagan Democrats" showed.[/q]

this is lame. you might as well argue that the northeast and california is filled with Republicans -- like, say, my former representative Nancy Johnson -- were Democrats in disguise. Congress is more broadly representative of the nation as a whole, and you've completely ignored both voter identification (more Democrats than Republicans and growing) and the fact that the Republican stance on nearly all social issues are trending older and older.

[q]The center is important, and when it comes to Presidential Politics over the past 40 years, the Republicans have solidly held on to that center.[/q]

they've been able to recruit the independents in a presidential forum, but not in Congress. the presidential race is far more about the individual than the party as a whole. when people vote for congress, or even state representatives, that's when party affiliations come out and people will pull all R's or all D's across the board. whereas in a presidential election, the individual candidate matters much more than his party. hence, your term, "Reagan Democrats" -- people who voted for Reagan, yet pulled D's across the board for everything else.

[q]That 18-20 years old vote more Democratic than Republican is nothing new and they continue to disapoint democrats in every election by showing up in such poor numbers. But as they age and become better educated and experienced, many move to the right and vote more. [/q]

considering those with higher educations overwhelmingly vote Democratic, there's really no point here. young people are voting in higher numbers than ever, and they vote Democratic. it is true that as young people begin to acquire capital and their incomes increase, they get swayed by the promises of lower taxes. however, these people have NOTHING in common with cultural conservatives who vote for Republicans solely because of issues like abortion. this is the "coalition" -- fiscal conservatives and social conservatives -- that was held together by Reagan and Bush 2 and that Rove used in his 50.1% strategy that brought him two extremely narrow (and one clearly illegitimate) victories.

and now, with the rise of Huckabee, that coalition has fractured. no one on Wall Street will vote for Huck, and no evangelical will vote for McCain, whereas both might have voted for Bush in 2000 (on the basis of low taxes and christianity) and in 2004 (on the basis of war/fear and hatred of gays).

things are grim for the GOP.

again, karma's a bitch.

If congress was more broadly representitive of the nation, voter turnout for mid-term elections would not be so much lower than for Presidential elections. Plus, during Presidential elections when people fill in the R or the D for congress, its in support of the person their voting for President. Thats why Bush increased the Republicans holdings in congress in 2000, 2002, and the historic increase in 2004. 2004 was the first time an incumbent president was able to increase his party's numbers in congress in half a century. That would be impossible if the political situation in the country and relevancy you give the House of Representitives in all this was true. Having the White House is key, which is has been effectively demonstrated by the impotence of the new Democratic congress and the fact that Reagan and Bush Sr. were enormously effective in pushing through their major policy objectives without having a majority in Congress.

The Republican party of the 80s, 90s, and 00's has more in common with the Democratic party of the 40s, 50s, and early 60s than the Republicans of that era. How any party tends to stand on various issues can change over time so the fact that social issues are trending more and more to the older crowd is not really relevant. John McCain is argueably more representive of the center of the country than any other candidate out there. He holds views that cross party lines which makes him very electable in a general election. Provided the Republican party base starts to recognize these things, they will cast off the issues that make them uncompetitive in capturing the center of the country thus continuing their dominance of the past 40 years or if this takes a while longer, regaining it in one or two Presidential election cycles.

I was not refering to "University Education" when talking about 18-20 years old as they move on in life, but more in a general sense. The fact is, people are across the board more liberal on everything at that age, and grow more conservative as they grow older and learn more and become more esperienced in life. The Hippies of the 60s are just as imbedded in today's society and fill the the churches like their parents did before them.

Bush's victories were both legitamite and significant when you realize that his 2004 re-election saw him gain a majority of the popular vote, the first time that had happened in a Presidential race in nearly 20 years. Just as historic was the increases in both the house and senate for Republicans, the first time and incumbent President had achieved that in half a century.


I wouldn't say things are grim for the GOP in 2008, but they have a big uphill battle to win the Presidency and their not going to win back congress this year. Its hard for any party that has held the White House for two consecutive terms to win another term in the White House and its only happened once since World War II. If the Democrats do win the White House in 2008, it would be better if Hillary Clinton won as she is much closer to the center than Obama and less likely to cause a backlash from middle America as her Husband did in his first two years in office and I might add, the last time that the Democrats held both houses and the White House. The fact that the Republicans hold on all three for 6 years while the Democrats were only able to hold onto it for 2 years just goes to show that this country at the center still has a lot in common with the Republican party and Democrats need to remember that.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:16 PM   #324
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Quote:
Originally posted by coemgen
The results of Iowa raise some questions that I don't think are being asked, or asked enough.

Obama took the female vote away from Clinton - is this the result of Oprah? If so, how much will she help in the future?

Romney lost big with Evangelicals. Did his Mormon faith hurt him?


As silly as it sounds, Oprah has a huge influence on Midwestern housewives. If she can convince them to make a book a best-seller, she probably can convince them, at least somewhat, to support a presidential candidate. It's understandable. I'm a fan of Oprah. She's intelligent, charismatic, and well-versed on what's going on in the world. I would certainly never do something as serious as picking a presidential candidate based on her influence, but for the majority of Americans who aren't too concerned with political issues, she can be a major player.

The majority of Evangelicals from my experience view Mormonism as some weird, scary cult that believes the wrong thing about Jesus. I can't say that as a Christian, I agree with Mormon theology, but I could easily support a Mormon candidate as long as I agreed with his or her policies and he or she did not try to use their religion to govern. Most Evangelicals seem to be incapable of actually voting for a candidate for a reason other than religion unfortunately, so no, I'm not surprised that Evangelicals didn't turn out for Romney.
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:19 PM   #325
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Quote:
Originally posted by coemgen
The results of Iowa raise some questions that I don't think are being asked, or asked enough.

Obama took the female vote away from Clinton - is this the result of Oprah? If so, how much will she help in the future?

Romney lost big with Evangelicals. Did his Mormon faith hurt him?

Sad that they have to be asked though, no?

I for one don't give a flip what Oprah thinks (and I like her most of the time) and I wasn't aware of Romney's spiritual statues (ok, so maybe I'm out of touch, but I guess I never bothered to wonder in what faith each candidate was raised).
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:54 PM   #326
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I wasn't aware of Romney's spiritual statues (ok, so maybe I'm out of touch, but I guess I never bothered to wonder in what faith each candidate was raised).


but Republicans have been arguing since 2000 that someone's religion matters, that it is a reason to vote for or against someone.

so, yay karma.
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Old 01-04-2008, 04:07 PM   #327
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Originally posted by Irvine511


but Republicans have been arguing since 2000 that someone's religion matters, that it is a reason to vote for or against someone.

NO IT ISN'T!!

What religion someone is is not important to me. What is important is their positions on things like abortion, gay marriage or the death penalty, which often stem from principles found in the Bible.
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Old 01-04-2008, 04:14 PM   #328
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What is important is their positions on things like abortion, gay marriage or the death penalty, which often stem from principles found in the Bible.
Why is their position on gay marriage important? WHY?!! This is what I don't get about Republicans...

And the death penalty? How does a pro death penalty(which is what most Reps are) stem from a principle in the Bible?

I really think Republicans are given a different Bible than everyone else...
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Old 01-04-2008, 04:15 PM   #329
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NO IT ISN'T!!

What religion someone is is not important to me. What is important is their positions on things like abortion, gay marriage or the death penalty, which often stem from principles found in the Bible.
Yeah, but to many Christians who live by the Bible they're not going to vote for someone who lives by the Bible and some other book that contradicts the Bible. I honestly think it contributed to some of Romney's results in Iowa.
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Old 01-04-2008, 04:42 PM   #330
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Originally posted by Irvine511




but Republicans have been arguing since 2000 that someone's religion matters, that it is a reason to vote for or against someone.

so, yay karma.
haha, true that! I guess I am voting against voting for or against someone based on religion, if that makes sense...
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