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Old 08-08-2007, 03:10 PM   #1
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If you were a terrorist... asks the NYT

So, is publishing this a wise move on the part of the Times? An appropriate or responsible move? A predictably liberal heathen move? Do you think the FBI is currently opening up files for the 250 people who have (so far) commented? Is the guy's logic sound, that getting scenarios out in the open is helpful?

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.co...ld-you-attack/

Quote:
If You Were a Terrorist, How Would You Attack?

By Steven D. Levitt

The TSA recently announced that most airplane carry-on restrictions will stay in place for at least another year, until new X-ray technology has been fully installed. Surprisingly, one item that will now be permitted on board is a lighter. While it seems crazy to keep people from bringing toothpaste, deodorant, or water on a plane, it doesn’t seem so strange to ban lighters, which could be used to start fires. I wonder whether the lighter manufacturers were lobbying for or against this rule change — on the one hand, having 22,000 lighters confiscated per day would seem good for business; but on the other hand, maybe fewer people will buy lighters if they can’t travel with them.

Hearing about these rules got me thinking about what I would do to maximize terror if I were a terrorist with limited resources. I’d start by thinking about what really inspires fear. One thing that scares people is the thought that they could be a victim of an attack. With that in mind, I’d want to do something that everybody thinks might be directed at them, even if the individual probability of harm is very low. Humans tend to overestimate small probabilities, so the fear generated by an act of terrorism is greatly disproportionate to the actual risk.

Also, I’d want to create the feeling that an army of terrorists exists, which I’d accomplish by pulling off multiple attacks at once, and then following them up with more shortly thereafter.

Third, unless terrorists always insist on suicide missions (which I can’t imagine they would), it would be optimal to hatch a plan in which your terrorists aren’t killed or caught in the act, if possible.

Fourth, I think it makes sense to try to stop commerce, since a commerce breakdown gives people more free time to think about how scared they are.

Fifth, if you really want to impose pain on the U.S., the act has to be something that prompts the government to pass a bundle of very costly laws that stay in place long after they have served their purpose (assuming they had a purpose in the first place).

My general view of the world is that simpler is better. My guess is that this thinking applies to terrorism as well. In that spirit, the best terrorist plan I have heard is one that my father thought up after the D.C. snipers created havoc in 2002. The basic idea is to arm 20 terrorists with rifles and cars, and arrange to have them begin shooting randomly at pre-set times all across the country. Big cities, little cities, suburbs, etc. Have them move around a lot. No one will know when and where the next attack will be. The chaos would be unbelievable, especially considering how few resources it would require of the terrorists. It would also be extremely hard to catch these guys. The damage wouldn’t be as extreme as detonating a nuclear bomb in New York City, of course; but it sure would be a lot easier to obtain a handful of guns than a nuclear weapon.

I’m sure many readers have far better ideas. I would love to hear them. Consider that posting them could be a form of public service: I presume that a lot more folks who oppose and fight terror read this blog than actual terrorists. So by getting these ideas out in the open, it gives terror fighters a chance to consider and plan for these scenarios before they occur.
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Old 08-08-2007, 03:21 PM   #2
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I think that it is, I mean shooting up a few kindergartens would simultaneously instill a lot of terror and could be done on the cheap.
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Old 08-08-2007, 03:29 PM   #3
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Re: If you were a terrorist... asks the NYT

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Originally posted by Varitek
So, is publishing this a wise move on the part of the Times? An appropriate or responsible move? A predictably liberal heathen move? Do you think the FBI is currently opening up files for the 250 people who have (so far) commented? Is the guy's logic sound, that getting scenarios out in the open is helpful?

I think it's a very smart move to think ahead all possible situations.
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Old 08-08-2007, 03:33 PM   #4
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Oh another question - if the article/invited comments aren't actually trying to solve or protect against these scenarios, are they doing any good? And do the author andc commenters really believe that the FBI/CIA/homeland security/etc haven't thought of all of this already?
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Old 08-08-2007, 06:43 PM   #5
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They already know all of that, unfortunately. They don't need the NY Times. What's more important is that the US govt know it, and know that the terrorists know-and that the US govt acts accordingly.

I bet they (terrorists) have already conceived something similar to the shooting scenario.
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Old 08-09-2007, 10:55 AM   #6
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Right but I doubt the government didn't know it prior to this article - I mean, I'm quite cynnical on how well they function, whether they have the right priorities, etc, but I do believe they aren't so incompetent as to miss these scenarios that 100 joe shmoes who comment on NYtimes blogs could come up with off the cusp.
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