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Old 08-03-2004, 11:32 AM   #91
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Quote:
Originally posted by Scarletwine
I don't get this thread. The polls I read from Friday showed a 4% loss of independents from W's numbers and added to Kerry's.

He was down to 44% and Kerry up to 49%.

edited to add

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/polit...ll_040802.html


Seems like a case of believing what you want to believe. Besides, as a great Republican thinker once said, facts are stupid things.
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Old 08-03-2004, 02:08 PM   #92
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Hey, there was a bounce. In the electoral college which, as we all know from 2000, is more important than the popular vote anyway.
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Old 08-03-2004, 02:44 PM   #93
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It's true, all these popular vote polls mean absolutely nothing, its the state polls that hold water.
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Old 08-03-2004, 06:44 PM   #94
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Quote:
Originally posted by Scarletwine
I don't get this thread. The polls I read from Friday showed a 4% loss of independents from W's numbers and added to Kerry's.

He was down to 44% and Kerry up to 49%.

edited to add

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/polit...ll_040802.html
The GALLOP organization which is considered to be the best at polling shows Bush at 50% and Kerry at 46% among likely voters. After a four day convention, every poll should be showing a good lead for Kerry for the convention to have been a success. Instead, GALLOP reports that Kerry is the first candidate not to get a bounce from his convention since George McGovern's run in 1972.

Even using the poll your reporting from as the standard, that is a poor showing. Conventions are designed to give their candidates large bounces. No bounce, or a bounce that is still within the margin of error is not good.

This does not mean Kerry will lose the election, but they have blown a golden opportunity. The Republicans now of the opportunity to significantly widen their lead with their convention instead of having to cut down a Kerry Bounce gained from his convention.
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Old 08-03-2004, 06:57 PM   #95
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Comventions usually do give the candidates a huge bounce. Gore got a large one after the Dem convention in 2000. However the very small number of undecided voters in this election makes that almost impossible.

And the electoral bounce was a poor showing? Here it is in picture form.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html
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Old 08-03-2004, 08:18 PM   #96
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Quote:
Originally posted by ThatGuy
Comventions usually do give the candidates a huge bounce. Gore got a large one after the Dem convention in 2000. However the very small number of undecided voters in this election makes that almost impossible.

And the electoral bounce was a poor showing? Here it is in picture form.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html
I've not seen anyone predict Kerry so far ahead in electoral votes. Many of the States the Democrats won last time, they won by the skin of their teeth.

The Fact is, the democrats will not get another opportunity like this convention before the election. It was supposed to be strong enough to produce a good bounce and instead, Bush is slightly ahead in some polls now.

It does not mean they will loose the election, but If I were working for the Kerry campaign, I would be worried about getting nothing out of the convention given the Republicans the opportunity to build a strong lead with their convention with no way to really combat that until maybe the debates.
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Old 08-03-2004, 10:55 PM   #97
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In the latest Newsweek magazine they are giving:

Bush 211 Electoral Votes

Kerry 207 Electoral Votes

Each candidates electoral votes for the states are divided into 3 catagories, Solid, Likely, and Leaning.

Then there are the toss up States. Here is how those toss up states are currently swinging:

Toss up States swinging towards Bush:

Florida 49% to 45% for BUSH. (27 Electoral Votes)
Iowa 46% to 45% for BUSH. (7 Electoral Votes)
Nevada 46% to 43% for BUSH. (5 Electoral Votes)

Toss up States not swinging towards either candidate:

Missouri 48% to 48% the ultimate toss up. (11 Electoral Votes)

Toss up States swinging towards Kerry:

Minnesota 48% to 45% for KERRY. (10 Electoral Votes)
New Hampshire 47% to 45% for KERRY. (4 Electoral Votes)
New Mexico 49% to 42% for KERRY. (5 Electoral Votes)
Ohio 49% to 44% for KERRY. (20 Electoral Votes)
Pennsylvania 48% to 43% for KERRY. (21 Electoral Votes)
Wisconsin 48% to 42% for KERRY. (10 Electoral Votes)


So if we were to assign the toss up states to the candidates based on these polls:

Bush: 250 Electoral Votes

Kerry: 277 Electoral Votes

Missouri Electoral votes are not appointed to either since it is 48% to 48% there.

So based on this, Kerry does have the election slightly if it had been held in July when the polling was done.

Here is the source for all the polling and electoral vote totals:

Cook Political Report, Wisconsin Advertising Project and Nielsen Monitor-PLUS. State Polls Compiled by NationalJournal.com and Accessed July 31, including CNN/GALLUP/USA TODAY (Registered Voters), Des Moines Register (Likely Voters), Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. (Registered Voters), American Research Group (Likely Voters) and Strategic Vision, Republican Political Consultancy (Likely Voters). All Polls Taken Between July 6 and July 22. Totals do not equal 100% due to Nader and Undecideds.

But if the Republicans can win Missouri and take away Minnesota and New Hampshire from the Democrats, Bush will win the election with 274 electoral votes to 263 for Kerry. The races in all 3 states are very tight.

Honestly, instead of the national polls, it is these 10 battleground states that are going to decide the election. The other states have essentially been decided already because either candidate is leading the other by 10 percentage points or more in each of them. These are the states to watch from now until election day.

If Bush were to lose Florida, there is no way he would be capable of winning Ohio or Pennsylvania. Because of that reason, I think the Republicans will put an unusual amount of money into Florida to make sure of victory.

Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, and New Hampshire will probably be the States that decide the election. The Candidates are within 3 points of each other in each state.

What I see happening is both parties winning every state they did last time but a trade of Ohio for Minnesota and Iowa, giving the Republicans the victory. While such a trade off would not have resulted in victory 4 years ago, the new electoral numbers make it possible.

Another interesting note:

Missouri: With one exception, it's picked the president in every election since 1900.
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Old 08-04-2004, 12:41 AM   #98
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Interesting. I had not read the Newsweek electoral polls. Thanks for the info.
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