In the latest Newsweek magazine they are giving:
Bush 211 Electoral Votes
Kerry 207 Electoral Votes
Each candidates electoral votes for the states are divided into 3 catagories, Solid, Likely, and Leaning.
Then there are the toss up States. Here is how those toss up states are currently swinging:
Toss up States swinging towards Bush:
Florida 49% to 45% for BUSH. (27 Electoral Votes)
Iowa 46% to 45% for BUSH. (7 Electoral Votes)
Nevada 46% to 43% for BUSH. (5 Electoral Votes)
Toss up States not swinging towards either candidate:
Missouri 48% to 48% the ultimate toss up. (11 Electoral Votes)
Toss up States swinging towards Kerry:
Minnesota 48% to 45% for KERRY. (10 Electoral Votes)
New Hampshire 47% to 45% for KERRY. (4 Electoral Votes)
New Mexico 49% to 42% for KERRY. (5 Electoral Votes)
Ohio 49% to 44% for KERRY. (20 Electoral Votes)
Pennsylvania 48% to 43% for KERRY. (21 Electoral Votes)
Wisconsin 48% to 42% for KERRY. (10 Electoral Votes)
So if we were to assign the toss up states to the candidates based on these polls:
Bush: 250 Electoral Votes
Kerry: 277 Electoral Votes
Missouri Electoral votes are not appointed to either since it is 48% to 48% there.
So based on this, Kerry does have the election slightly if it had been held in July when the polling was done.
Here is the source for all the polling and electoral vote totals:
Cook Political Report, Wisconsin Advertising Project and Nielsen Monitor-PLUS. State Polls Compiled by NationalJournal.com and Accessed July 31, including CNN/GALLUP/USA TODAY (Registered Voters), Des Moines Register (Likely Voters), Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. (Registered Voters), American Research Group (Likely Voters) and Strategic Vision, Republican Political Consultancy (Likely Voters). All Polls Taken Between July 6 and July 22. Totals do not equal 100% due to Nader and Undecideds.
But if the Republicans can win Missouri and take away Minnesota and New Hampshire from the Democrats, Bush will win the election with 274 electoral votes to 263 for Kerry. The races in all 3 states are very tight.
Honestly, instead of the national polls, it is these 10 battleground states that are going to decide the election. The other states have essentially been decided already because either candidate is leading the other by 10 percentage points or more in each of them. These are the states to watch from now until election day.
If Bush were to lose Florida, there is no way he would be capable of winning Ohio or Pennsylvania. Because of that reason, I think the Republicans will put an unusual amount of money into Florida to make sure of victory.
Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, and New Hampshire will probably be the States that decide the election. The Candidates are within 3 points of each other in each state.
What I see happening is both parties winning every state they did last time but a trade of Ohio for Minnesota and Iowa, giving the Republicans the victory. While such a trade off would not have resulted in victory 4 years ago, the new electoral numbers make it possible.
Another interesting note:
Missouri: With one exception, it's picked the president in every election since 1900.