GW has lost his lead.

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I haven't seen a post-debate Electoral College map. There was an Electoral College poll in Business Investor's Daily today but it was done partially pre-debate.
 
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drivemytrabant said:
if the President wins Ohio and Florida--both of which he leads right now--he wins the election. Gore won the majority vote but lost the election.
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I agree. Whoever carries those states is going to win the whole kit and kaboodle.
 
joyfulgirl said:
Here's one, post debate:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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Actually, none of the state-by-state polls on that map are post-debate polls...yet. If you hover your mouse over each state, you'll see the dates of when each poll was taken. The most recent polls in Ohio and Florida was taken by Rasmussen during Sept 24-30.

This site updates on a daily basis, so continue to watch it for updates as the battleground polls come in this week. Also, the site owner just changed his methodology: He is now averaging the three most recent polls to come up with the current numbers used on his map. Before he only took the most recent poll and used those numbers. So Kerry's post-debate bounce may not be immediately obvious on this map because the numbers will be averaged in with pre-debate polls.
 
GibsonExplorer said:


Actually, none of the state-by-state polls on that map are post-debate polls...yet.
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Oh. :huh:

Thanks for the clarification.
 
Hi folks.:)
It's nice to be back.
I've voted in all the general elections since 1980 (except 1988). My oldest brother took me in 1980 and we voted for Reagan.

With GW's performance in the first debate, I was embarassed to be a Republican.

If he does not show up well in the next 2 debates, thane's wishes may be realized.

db9
 
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I changed my address two months ago -- middle of August. I moved five blocks. I still haven't received the notification that my address has been changed. I got worried considering our deadline is next week so I called the Brooklyn Board of Elections. They are wayyyy behind -- bringing in 45 temp workers to get through all the registrations. And this is Brooklyn, NY! There is not even a sort of close contest here and we have all of these new registrations. Should be interesting.

And as I mentioned in the Gallup thread, their poll is now inline with political samples that reflect political sample make-up in exit polls from 2000, which of course make it a tied race.
 
:eyebrow:

Poll: Bush And Kerry Tied

NEW YORK, Oct. 4, 2004



Kerry Gets Debate Bounce


(Photo: AP / CBS)



Kerry scored a solid success in the first presidential debate. By more than two to one, voters said that Kerry, not Bush, did the best job in that debate; 60 percent declared Kerry the winner, and 23 percent said Bush won.



(CBS) In the days after what most voters saw as a clear win for him in the first presidential debate, Senator John Kerry has bounced back -- his overall ratings have improved and the presidential race has tightened once again. The Democratic candidate and President George W. Bush are tied: 47 percent of likely voters support Kerry, and 47 percent support George W. Bush. In a CBS News Poll conducted the week before the debate, the Bush-Cheney ticket held a nine-point lead over Kerry and his running mate John Edwards among likely voters


db9:eyebrow:
 
diamond said:

With GW's performance in the first debate, I was embarassed to be a Republican.

If he does not show up well in the next 2 debates, thane's wishes may be realized.

db9
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Welcome back! I see you are thinking more clearly these days. :wink:
 
Zogby usually is an accurate predictor-
This just in..

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush three days before the presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.

The White House rivals face a frantic sprint to the finish, hunting for votes in fewer than 10 battleground states that hold the key to a win on Tuesday.

Neither candidate has been able to establish a clear advantage or break the 50 percent barrier since the tracking poll began on Oct. 7.

"Bush continues to hold on to solid support among Republicans, investors, married voters and born again Christians," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry expands his lead among young voters, African Americans and Hispanics."

But Kerry is still getting the support of only 84 percent of black voters, short of the more than 90 percent claimed by Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and enough of a shortfall to make a difference in a few critical states in such a tight election.

The Massachusetts senator had a 48-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.

Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by four points in the daily tracking poll.

The poll of 1,209 likely voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.

Bush gained ground in some of the critical swing states that will decide who accumulates the 270 electoral votes needed to win, leading in six of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls.

Bush led in Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada. Kerry led in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.8 percent.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.


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I honestly don't think or don't hope that it will be as close as 2000, whoever shall win (again GO KIRK SPOCK '04) shall win with a more convincing bit.
 
Last night on The Daily Show Zogby was the guest and he predicted a Kerry win. He said Bush's points were too low for an incumbent president to win when the undecideds generally go for the challenger.
 
joyfulgirl said:
Last night on The Daily Show Zogby was the guest and he predicted a Kerry win. He said Bush's points were too low for an incumbent president to win when the undecideds generally go for the challenger.
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*knocks wood*
 
deep said:
sorry guys

bush will win electorial college vote


w/o supreme help
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I love it when people forget that this election is not based on who wins the most votes.
 
Dreadsox said:


I love it when people forget that this election is not based on who wins the most votes.
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:up: I never thought that the US is a democratic country anyway.
 
Poll: College students moving toward Kerry

Harvard survey shows politics huge on campuses

By Michael Ludden
CNN

ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- College students say they are much more interested in politics this year, more likely to identify with a party and more likely to vote, a new Harvard University study shows.

And it appears a majority of those responding to the survey intend to vote for Sen. John Kerry.

The Harvard University Institute of Politics surveyed students across the country in October.

The institute began tracking students' political leanings in 2000. Since then, there have been some remarkable changes.

But first, the findings:

* The 10-point lead that Kerry held over President Bush in a March survey has grown to 13 percent.

* While Bush's support among students has remained consistent, many undecided voters have moved into the Kerry camp.

* In swing states, Kerry's lead is even higher, about 16 percent. Swing-state students also are saying they are more likely to vote than students in non-swing states.

* Women are far more likely to support Kerry. The race is about even among males.

* Students are divided in the way they rank the candidates' personal attributes. Bush, for example, scores higher on "takes a clear stand on issues." Kerry ranks higher on "understands the problems of people like you."

* More students believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. And support for the war is slipping.

David King, associate director of Harvard's Institute of Politics, said the intensity of feeling among students is significant.

"The energy level is way up, and cynicism is way down. Students are choosing sides now," King said.

More often than not, the side they choose is Kerry's. About 52 percent of students say they would vote for Kerry today, compared with 39 percent for Bush. (Chart: Voter Preferences)

While 87 percent of college students say they are registered to vote today, King says that number can't be trusted.

"It's self-reported. But it's also true that the [registration] levels appear to be much higher."

Look for a big turnout

The National Center for Education Statistics estimates there are more than 10.2 million students enrolled at four-year schools this year.

King predicts more than half of them will vote in the presidential election, a significant increase from a turnout of about 42 percent in 2000.

Curtis Gans also expects a big jump in student voting.

Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, a Washington nonprofit research institute, has spent decades studying American voting trends.

Gans said he expects 40 percent to 45 percent of students will vote, which he says would be "a very good turnout."

"It's a very emotional election. I think there will be a substantial bump in student voting," he said. "And that probably benefits Kerry."

The Harvard study suggests female students are a major part of Kerry's support on campus, with 58 percent of women supporting Kerry and 34 percent supporting Bush. (Chart: Gender Gap)

"Women just don't like Bush's personality," King said. "Among men, Kerry tied Bush for 'has an appealing personality.' Among women, it was 51 to 35 for Kerry."

Nevertheless, 44 percent of students say they expect Bush to win, with 34 percent predicting a Kerry win, according to the survey.

There also were substantial differences among college men and women on which issues were most important. For men, the economy was first, followed by terrorism and Iraq.

For women, the most important question was moral values, followed by Iraq and the economy.

Once those responses were merged, the economy ranked first.

"We consistently found students worried about the economy," said King, a lecturer at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government.
Click to expand...
 
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