namkcuR
ONE love, blood, life
deep said:
But even if he wins a couple more of those Southern states, he can't win the nomination, so what's his endgame?
GOP Nominee 2012 - Who Will It Be?, Pt. 4
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But even if he wins a couple more of those Southern states, he can't win the nomination, so what's his endgame?
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
A brokered convention...
deep
Blue Crack Addict
If Romney does not get the 1144 delegates, he will get over 1000, probably 1100.
Gingrich and Santorum could be in the 450-500 range.
I think Gingrich is practical enough that he would work a deal with the Romney camp
if not VP, then for a place in the cabinet and prominent place in the campaign.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
aside from ND, looks like you were right.
Popmartijn
Blue Crack Supplier
I think this graph is quite telling. It shows the results in Ohio by county.
Romney got the big cities, Santorum got the rest.
2861U2
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
But in the major markets, where that money was spent, Romney won by comfortable margins.
It was a fine night for Romney. He got 6 out of 10 (including Ohio, where he was down in the polls until about 72 hours ago), and came in second in 3 of the 4 other states. He'll win more than 50% of the delegates at stake last night, which is pretty impressive in a four-way race. It also shows that despite Santorum's strengths, he has a hard time closing. His money may start to dry up.
I just looked at the raw numbers, and turnout in Ohio was up more than 100,000 from 2008.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
yes, so Romney won by outspending Rick Santorum by 5-1 and only barely beat him. it seems preposterous to think that Romney is going to take this state from Obama.
he cannot win a Southern state, which is where the heart of the GOP is (VA can't count since it's a weird hybrid and only he and Paul were on the ballot. Romney won states that Obama is guaranteed to win in the fall and only had to beat Paul in VA. he has little support with blue collar workers and evangelicals.
i assume he'll be the nominee but why is this so hard to do?
the biggest hope for Romney is that his weaknesses in the primary -- a Mormon, from Mass, believes in universal health care -- will be strengths in the general.
curious about the numbers -- did some googling and can't find any good data.
he cannot win a Southern state, which is where the heart of the GOP is (VA can't count since it's a weird hybrid and only he and Paul were on the ballot. Romney won states that Obama is guaranteed to win in the fall and only had to beat Paul in VA. he has little support with blue collar workers and evangelicals.
i assume he'll be the nominee but why is this so hard to do?
the biggest hope for Romney is that his weaknesses in the primary -- a Mormon, from Mass, believes in universal health care -- will be strengths in the general.
curious about the numbers -- did some googling and can't find any good data.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Speaking of being concerned about the economy..
Maybe the GOP should adopt this nationwide, right now. Oops, there goes Newt. Or maybe there's a grandfather clause for x number of years of service to the GOP/come to Jesus after screwing around on your wives.
TPM
Jillian Rayfield March 5, 2012
Before you can join the Laurens County Republican Party in South Carolina and get on the primary ballot, they ask that you pledge that you’ve never ever had pre-marital sex — and that you will never ever look at porn again.
Last Tuesday, the LCGOP unanimously adopted a resolution that would ask all candidates who want to get on the primary ballot to sign a pledge with 28 principles, because the party “does not want to associate with candidates who do not act and speak in a manner that is consistent with the SC Republican Party Platform.”
Among the principles, according to Vic MacDonald & Larry Franklin of the Clinton Chronicle, is standard fare like opposition to abortion and upholding gun rights, as well as “a compassionate and moral approach to Teen Pregnancy” and “a high regard for United States Sovereignty.”
But then they get even more specific. From the Chronicle:
You must favor, and live up to, abstinence before marriage.
You must be faithful to your spouse. Your spouse cannot be a person of the same gender, and you are not allowed to favor any government action that would allow for civil unions of people of the same sex.
You cannot now, from the moment you sign this pledge, look at pornography.
It is unclear how they will precisely determine this (or regulate it), but an unidentified potential candidate for office in Laurens County told the Chronicle that candidates will be interviewed by a three-person subcommittee, who will then recommend to the full executive committee whether to allow the candidate on the ballot.
Bobby Smith, who chairs the Laurens County Republican Party, explained that “people feel the platform has not been adhered to. We want candidates to believe in and uphold the party’s platform.”
Though at first the resolution would have required candidates to sign the pledge, Smith clarified in a statement Monday that “due to various legal issues” the LCGOP cannot require that the candidates sign the pledge if they meet all of the other qualifications for a run. But, he said, the committee “reserves the right to vet its candidates and will encourage all candidates to uphold the principles of the party’s platform as well as petition candidates to sign a pledge to do so. However, no candidate will be denied access to the Republican Party primary ballot for refusing to sign the pledge.”
State GOP chairman Chad Connelly told the Chronicle that he doesn’t necessarily oppose the idea. “If we are wearing the same uniform I want to be sure we are kicking the ball toward the same goal, or are you moving against me.”
Maybe the GOP should adopt this nationwide, right now. Oops, there goes Newt. Or maybe there's a grandfather clause for x number of years of service to the GOP/come to Jesus after screwing around on your wives.
TPM
Jillian Rayfield March 5, 2012
Before you can join the Laurens County Republican Party in South Carolina and get on the primary ballot, they ask that you pledge that you’ve never ever had pre-marital sex — and that you will never ever look at porn again.
Last Tuesday, the LCGOP unanimously adopted a resolution that would ask all candidates who want to get on the primary ballot to sign a pledge with 28 principles, because the party “does not want to associate with candidates who do not act and speak in a manner that is consistent with the SC Republican Party Platform.”
Among the principles, according to Vic MacDonald & Larry Franklin of the Clinton Chronicle, is standard fare like opposition to abortion and upholding gun rights, as well as “a compassionate and moral approach to Teen Pregnancy” and “a high regard for United States Sovereignty.”
But then they get even more specific. From the Chronicle:
You must favor, and live up to, abstinence before marriage.
You must be faithful to your spouse. Your spouse cannot be a person of the same gender, and you are not allowed to favor any government action that would allow for civil unions of people of the same sex.
You cannot now, from the moment you sign this pledge, look at pornography.
It is unclear how they will precisely determine this (or regulate it), but an unidentified potential candidate for office in Laurens County told the Chronicle that candidates will be interviewed by a three-person subcommittee, who will then recommend to the full executive committee whether to allow the candidate on the ballot.
Bobby Smith, who chairs the Laurens County Republican Party, explained that “people feel the platform has not been adhered to. We want candidates to believe in and uphold the party’s platform.”
Though at first the resolution would have required candidates to sign the pledge, Smith clarified in a statement Monday that “due to various legal issues” the LCGOP cannot require that the candidates sign the pledge if they meet all of the other qualifications for a run. But, he said, the committee “reserves the right to vet its candidates and will encourage all candidates to uphold the principles of the party’s platform as well as petition candidates to sign a pledge to do so. However, no candidate will be denied access to the Republican Party primary ballot for refusing to sign the pledge.”
State GOP chairman Chad Connelly told the Chronicle that he doesn’t necessarily oppose the idea. “If we are wearing the same uniform I want to be sure we are kicking the ball toward the same goal, or are you moving against me.”
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Marcy Kaptur beat Dennis Kucinich, so he's out
COLUMBUS, Ohio—An Ohio plumber thrust into national politics during the 2008 presidential campaign has won the Republican nomination in his home state as he makes a bid for Congress.
Samuel Wurzelbacher gained the nickname "Joe the Plumber" for expressing working-class concerns about taxes to then-candidate Barack Obama during a stop to the region.
The Toledo-area plumber defeated Steve Kraus, a Sandusky real estate agent, early Wednesday to grab the GOP nomination in Ohio's 9th Congressional District.
He faces an uphill climb in the fall against veteran U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who won the Democratic primary. The newly drawn district snaking along the Lake Erie shoreline from Toledo to Cleveland tilts toward Democrats.
COLUMBUS, Ohio—An Ohio plumber thrust into national politics during the 2008 presidential campaign has won the Republican nomination in his home state as he makes a bid for Congress.
Samuel Wurzelbacher gained the nickname "Joe the Plumber" for expressing working-class concerns about taxes to then-candidate Barack Obama during a stop to the region.
The Toledo-area plumber defeated Steve Kraus, a Sandusky real estate agent, early Wednesday to grab the GOP nomination in Ohio's 9th Congressional District.
He faces an uphill climb in the fall against veteran U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who won the Democratic primary. The newly drawn district snaking along the Lake Erie shoreline from Toledo to Cleveland tilts toward Democrats.
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
That's just scary.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I wouldn't be so quick to assume. If Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul all stick with this and nobody backs out, there's a fair chance that nobody wins through popular vote.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
he is doing very well in the places that matter
and good in the places that don't
what doesn't matter? - red states, those are a lock, those will all go for the GOP, Romney for sure.
the purple and light blue states? doing very well, this what really matters,
all of the people that go to the polls for Gingrich or Santorum, say they will vote for the GOP nominee if it is Romney. The only Santorum voters he will not get are the Democrats that voted Santorum, 5-10 % of turnout. Santorum's numbers in MI and OH were inflated by Dem mischief voting.
This is very interesting, Romney got more Catholic vote than Santorum in both MI and Ohio. Isn't he a life long Catholic? Can you imagine if Romney lost the Mormon vote in any state?
As for Romney's spending. Very impressive, his campaign seems to be very smart. They go from being down two weeks before and spending just the right amount to win. No over spending. Organizational, and management skills are very strong.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Well then, Rick Perry it is.
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
MrsSpringsteen, that story about the party in South Carolina...good lord 
.
I'm afraid to know the answer to that, too (ah, there's that good ol' "small government interference" the Republicans love so much rearing its head again
!).
And it's so good to know Joe the Plumber is back. Sigh.
As for that story from a few pages back about him in comparison to Fluke-here's the thing. Nobody called Joe a "slut". Nobody got on him about personal matters such as sexual activity. And Carrie Prejean came out against gay marriage because of her "good Christian values" all the while doing things that some would consider being against her religious views. She came off like kind of a massive hypocrite. I do agree that a politician's views on such topics hold more weight and concern for me than what Joe the Plumber or Carrie Prejean or even Sandra Fluke think, since the politicians can make the actual decisions and laws about such things that will affect me.
But there's specific reasons why Joe and Carrie got targeted, not so much because their views were conservative, but because they were full of ignorance. And I think if you are going to be in the public eye and say things that can be seen as untrue or hypocritical or whatnot, you should be called out on it. And that goes for both sides.
Thank you.
I wondered about that, too. Lord knows this isn't the first time Rush has said something horrendously stupid/offensive.
And this whole debate is so insane and stupid. Nobody is trying to trample on anyone's precious religious beliefs. All we're saying, ALL we want, is for women to be able to have birth control covered under any insurance their employers may offer them. As I've said before, I don't HAVE any health insurance-I'd love to have that. And yes, I would want birth control covered under it. There are many reasons beyond pregnancy why women use it-anyone with a working brain would know this. Married women use it. Women in committed, long-term relationships use it. This idea that only unmarried women who run around having one night stands are the ones using birth control is crazy and blatantly untrue. If Viagra can be covered and nobody sees a problem with it or finds it "offensive" to their "morals", I don't get why birth control being covered is so much worse. Can somebody PLEASE explain to me why one is okay but the other isn't? Please?
Seriously. It's. Not. That. Complicated.
I truly hope that happens. They could use a massive wake-up call.
.I'm afraid to know the answer to that, too (ah, there's that good ol' "small government interference" the Republicans love so much rearing its head again
!). And it's so good to know Joe the Plumber is back. Sigh.
As for that story from a few pages back about him in comparison to Fluke-here's the thing. Nobody called Joe a "slut". Nobody got on him about personal matters such as sexual activity. And Carrie Prejean came out against gay marriage because of her "good Christian values" all the while doing things that some would consider being against her religious views. She came off like kind of a massive hypocrite. I do agree that a politician's views on such topics hold more weight and concern for me than what Joe the Plumber or Carrie Prejean or even Sandra Fluke think, since the politicians can make the actual decisions and laws about such things that will affect me.
But there's specific reasons why Joe and Carrie got targeted, not so much because their views were conservative, but because they were full of ignorance. And I think if you are going to be in the public eye and say things that can be seen as untrue or hypocritical or whatnot, you should be called out on it. And that goes for both sides.
Thank you.
I wondered about that, too. Lord knows this isn't the first time Rush has said something horrendously stupid/offensive.
And this whole debate is so insane and stupid. Nobody is trying to trample on anyone's precious religious beliefs. All we're saying, ALL we want, is for women to be able to have birth control covered under any insurance their employers may offer them. As I've said before, I don't HAVE any health insurance-I'd love to have that. And yes, I would want birth control covered under it. There are many reasons beyond pregnancy why women use it-anyone with a working brain would know this. Married women use it. Women in committed, long-term relationships use it. This idea that only unmarried women who run around having one night stands are the ones using birth control is crazy and blatantly untrue. If Viagra can be covered and nobody sees a problem with it or finds it "offensive" to their "morals", I don't get why birth control being covered is so much worse. Can somebody PLEASE explain to me why one is okay but the other isn't? Please?
Seriously. It's. Not. That. Complicated.
I truly hope that happens. They could use a massive wake-up call.
If the GOP are this divided, they should split into another party. Have the tea party, religious nut jobs split off and form their own party, and quit piggybacking on the Republican platform to get elected.
And hopefully the more moderate, true conservative (not just obstrunctionist type), less focused on social issues can come back to the party.
And hopefully the more moderate, true conservative (not just obstrunctionist type), less focused on social issues can come back to the party.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
keep in mind these nuts are already split offs from the other major party.
U2DMfan
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
It's sad that Romney sold his soul to earn the votes of voters that hate 'flip-flopping' almost worse than anything else.
Or to be more specific, they hate unprincipled 'say anything to get your vote' politicians.
That was part of the John McCain lesson of 2008. I was a McCain guy back in 2000, I like the straight-talk war hero, etc. Hell, everyone liked him a little bit. But he sold his soul too. Of course the 2008 economic downturn (in large part) cost him the election, but you can't convince me that he wouldn't have had a better run at it, had he not compromised and contorted himself.
And it makes me respect John Huntsman just that much more.
Otherwise this thing would have long been over. I think conservatives, urban or rural, get the idea that it takes a more moderate conservative to get elected in November. What they can't stomach is a politician that thinks you are so dumb that he can lie to your face like Romney does. Maybe some of those voters are dumb, but they'll likely be voting for the most Right Wing candidate anyhow. But a lot of those average conservatives, despite the caricatures perpetuated by the ignorant media, aren't dumb at all. They believe what they believe, but they don't like being taken for a fool.
You have to be utterly brain dead to not understand Romney is a flip-flopper, and then to see him denying it...what does that say about how he thinks about the targeted audience of those denials? You'd have to think they are just as stupid as Romney does...and that's why so many people can't understand why they don't want Romney. These same people think 'those people' are idiots. And they aren't.
Think about it. That is the Romney problem in a nutshell.
Will it prevent him from winning in November? I don't know.
Or to be more specific, they hate unprincipled 'say anything to get your vote' politicians.
That was part of the John McCain lesson of 2008. I was a McCain guy back in 2000, I like the straight-talk war hero, etc. Hell, everyone liked him a little bit. But he sold his soul too. Of course the 2008 economic downturn (in large part) cost him the election, but you can't convince me that he wouldn't have had a better run at it, had he not compromised and contorted himself.
And it makes me respect John Huntsman just that much more.
Otherwise this thing would have long been over. I think conservatives, urban or rural, get the idea that it takes a more moderate conservative to get elected in November. What they can't stomach is a politician that thinks you are so dumb that he can lie to your face like Romney does. Maybe some of those voters are dumb, but they'll likely be voting for the most Right Wing candidate anyhow. But a lot of those average conservatives, despite the caricatures perpetuated by the ignorant media, aren't dumb at all. They believe what they believe, but they don't like being taken for a fool.
You have to be utterly brain dead to not understand Romney is a flip-flopper, and then to see him denying it...what does that say about how he thinks about the targeted audience of those denials? You'd have to think they are just as stupid as Romney does...and that's why so many people can't understand why they don't want Romney. These same people think 'those people' are idiots. And they aren't.
Think about it. That is the Romney problem in a nutshell.
Will it prevent him from winning in November? I don't know.
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
Absolutely true. It's really offensive sometimes the way politicians and the media patronize the voters. People get so caught up in regional, big city versus small town BS that they forget that just because you live in a certain area doesn't mean you're automatically going to conform to the stereotypes and belief systems.
I know it's cliche and I know that it's an idealistic wish, but note to the politicians: quit "pretending" to relate to the voters and just be yourself and be honest. For once.
PhilsFan
Blue Crack Addict
The GOP sort of did it to themselves, though. They made the health care that Obama proposed (the Obamacare name is retarded) a massive fucking deal, even though it was entirely reasonable. In doing so, they alienated their most electable 2012 candidate, because his one caveat was that he had supported the exact same health care plan that Obama did. They put him in a no-win situation. Either the GOP was going to have to flip-flop or he was.
The bottom line is that the GOP buries itself by trying to make reasonable proposals look like the apocalypse. This health care plan was reasonable. Romney is a smart guy: he knew it was reasonable. That's why it happened in Massachusetts.
The bottom line is that the GOP buries itself by trying to make reasonable proposals look like the apocalypse. This health care plan was reasonable. Romney is a smart guy: he knew it was reasonable. That's why it happened in Massachusetts.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
it was also pretty much Romney's plan and considered mainstream GOP policy up until Obama proposed it (after having rewritten it specifically for Republican Olympia Snowe).
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
No one but Diamond is excited about Romney. So the question you have to ask yourself if you are a Republican, is the "anything but Obama vote" really that strong?
It didn't work against Bush.
I don't know if it is or not, I think there's a certain portion of the country that believes everyone hates Obama and that this next election is in the can no matter what suit they put up there. I think these people live in a bubble.
Now that doesn't mean the majority love Obama or are happy with things the way they are now, but I think he has reality on his side. Or at least I would hope so...
But who knows, it's still a long ways from now to November. I'm just suprised that this is all the GOP were capable of handing us. They honestly had it made, but I think at the end of the day they shot themselves in the foot.
It didn't work against Bush.
I don't know if it is or not, I think there's a certain portion of the country that believes everyone hates Obama and that this next election is in the can no matter what suit they put up there. I think these people live in a bubble.
Now that doesn't mean the majority love Obama or are happy with things the way they are now, but I think he has reality on his side. Or at least I would hope so...
But who knows, it's still a long ways from now to November. I'm just suprised that this is all the GOP were capable of handing us. They honestly had it made, but I think at the end of the day they shot themselves in the foot.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
it seems like Kerry in 2004 was a much stronger candidate than Romney is in 2012.
namkcuR
ONE love, blood, life
BVS said:No one but Diamond is excited about Romney. So the question you have to ask yourself if you are a Republican, is the "anything but Obama vote" really that strong?
It didn't work against Bush.
I don't know if it is or not, I think there's a certain portion of the country that believes everyone hates Obama and that this next election is in the can no matter what suit they put up there. I think these people live in a bubble.
Now that doesn't mean the majority love Obama or are happy with things the way they are now, but I think he has reality on his side. Or at least I would hope so...
But who knows, it's still a long ways from now to November. I'm just suprised that this is all the GOP were capable of handing us. They honestly had it made, but I think at the end of the day they shot themselves in the foot.
I heard someone on tv, I don't remember who, say that the reason Christie and Daniels didn't run is because they didn't think Obama could be beat in 2012 and would rather wait until 2016.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
what the GOP base doesn't get is that Obama is widely liked. job approval is a slightly different thing, but people generally like Obama personally. if the economy continues to improve he's probably unbeatable barring a major disaster of some sort.
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
So Breitbart's and Hannity's "nail in the coffin" video ended up being nothing but a weak attempt to make a link to an irrelevant "radical"?
Anything for ratings...
Anything for ratings...
maycocksean
Rock n' Roll Doggie Band-aid
No, I worked so late that by the time I could get out the polls were closing.
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
I just saw recaps on "The Daily Show" of CNN's coverage from last night, complete with their usual over-the-top technology.
Holy shit, those people have WAY too much time on their hands.
And I heard Mitt Romney talking about how on November 6th, his win meant that our future was saved. Uh-huh.
Holy shit, those people have WAY too much time on their hands.
And I heard Mitt Romney talking about how on November 6th, his win meant that our future was saved. Uh-huh.
nextlife
The Fly
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I am supporting Mitt. I don't agree with some of his views, however, I feel like he is the candidate most capable of turning the economy around and getting people back to work; and for me that is the most important issue.
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