Neither Gingrich nor Paul (or Santorum, really) stand a chance at winning a majority victory in delegates.
Right but not even Romney can (taking all into consideration) feasibly get to the required number to get the nomination on the first ballot.
In fact, given the way things are going, there is a 99% chance Romney will not get the 1,144
no matter what happens in each particular state. That is, unless he starts suddenly blowing them out of the water and they drop out (not going to happen).
So the moral to the story is, there will almost certainly be a second ballot at the convention.
And right now the race is to make
that particular argument.
As it stands, Romney will end up around 1,000 one way or another.
He will have a substantial argument no matter what, with that many delegates, and is very likely the nominee. Santorum (forget Gingrich) is hoping that he can make his voice heard at the convention with about 400 or so.
And so the dog and pony show over the next three months will continue. And nothing will really matter until the convention. So yeah, Santorum wins Kansas...Big deal. Hell even if he wins California, it wouldn't matter. Hell, even if he loses California, he can still make the same argument. With less credibility? Perhaps but the argument is going to be about Romney not being able to beat Obama.
Have you seen Romney's tax plan? I bet Santorum has.
Anyway, the math doesn't add up. While it is possible, it is almost improbable taken in proper context. Nobody can really win it.
And therefore, it is going to be decided by politicking.
That's not a "brokered convention" AFAIK, that's just the process.