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Old 01-03-2012, 02:36 AM   #1006
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I think Santorum will win in Iowa tomorrow. Evangelicals always exceed their polling numbers (my theory why is that the more conservative somebody is, the less they'd bother to respond to a phone poll or exit poll) and I also think a lot of people not wanting to vote for Romney or Paul will stop thinking about voting for Bachmann, Gingrich or Perry and jump onto Santorum's train.

Santorum will take Iowa, but Mitt will win New Hampshire and use that momentum to win this thing. The party establishment knows he's their best hope and nobody else in the field will have the funding/volunteers to keep the race going. I mean, they can stay in it as long as they'd like, but it would only be for their egos (and without money, they won't accomplish anything).
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Old 01-03-2012, 02:50 AM   #1007
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Here's when I think they drop out.....


1) Jon Huntsman. His entire gameplan relies on New Hampshire. When he fails to win or get even second place there, he'll call it a day. Does not have the network/funds to continue longer, nor does he have the support of party higher-ups.

2) Michelle Bachmann. Peaked earlier than Santorum/Perry and her campaign is almost penniless. She'll give it her last hurrah after performing miserably in South Carolina.

3) Rick Perry. Earned a lot of campaign money before he opened his mouth in the debates, so he can continue for some time. As he fails to win state-after-state, he'll look towards easily winning Texas to save face and then call it a day.

4) Newt Gingrich. He'll continue on for some time thanks to the press coverage which will help him sell books in the long run. Once his campaign starts to owe too many people money or becomes embarrassingly understaffed, then he'll concede.

5) Rick Santorum. A good showing in Iowa, and presumably, the South, will keep him going for some time. Basically Romney is the McCain to his Huckabee with the evangelicals throwing their protest votes behind Santorum. He can definitely win the "more fundie" states.

6) Ron Paul. Will run his campaign to the end. His is the only one (other than Romney, of course) that has a guaranteed sizable amount of support regardless at what point the campaign is in. He can't build momentum whatsoever, but he'll use his vast network to continue the race on for as long as he can.

Romney will seal the deal by Super Tuesday.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:45 AM   #1008
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Onetime Republican presidential frontrunner Newt Gingrich called on campaign rival Mitt Romney Tuesday to "just level with the American people" about his moderate political views.

Asked point-blank in a nationally broadcast network interview if he was calling the former Massachusetts governor "a liar," the former House speaker replied, "Yes."

In the interview on CBS's "The Early Show," Gingrich declined to predict he'd win Tuesday night's Iowa caucuses, but said "I don't think anybody knows who's going to get what right now." He said "I think anybody can come in first" because of a large number of Iowa voters who remained undecided on the day of the caucuses.

Of Romney, Gingrich was asked about previous statements he'd made accusing his opponent of lying. Gingrich assailed Romney for negative television ads that have hurt his standing in the polls, saying Romney has been disingenuous about large sums of money that a Super PAC has been spending on his behalf for the attack commercials.
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"I just think he ought to be honest with the American people and try to win as the real Mitt Romney," Gingrich said. "He ought to be candid and I don't think he's been candid."

But when asked if he could support Romney if he became the party's nominee and runs against President Barack Obama, Gingrich answered affirmatively. "He would be much less destructive than Barack Obama," he said. "If you think Barack Obama is someone who is not a risk to the country's future, then that's somebody to vote for."

"I wish Mitt would just level with the American people and be who he really is and let's have a debate between a Massachusetts moderate and a real conservative," Gingrich said.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:51 AM   #1009
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I'm rooting for Paul to do well and drag out this circus funhouse a little longer.

Plus, his campaign reminds me of Dean 2004 a bit; a nice bit of grassroots internet mobilization that I look back on fondly.
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Old 01-03-2012, 11:42 AM   #1010
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it does look like Romney has played this well and kept his cool and is in a stronger position than a month ago.

still, i'm morbidly curious to watch what happens when Gingrich goes full frontal on him in the next debate.

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Old 01-03-2012, 12:05 PM   #1011
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Tonight should mark the end of Iowa being first and more importantly, relevant in these primaries.

Don't be shocked if Santorum has a good showing or wins, which would all be seal Iowa being a waste of time for future POTUS elections.
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Old 01-03-2012, 12:38 PM   #1012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
it does look like Romney has played this well and kept his cool and is in a stronger position than a month ago.

still, i'm morbidly curious to watch what happens when Gingrich goes full frontal on him in the next debate.

Romney has been playing the long-term game since the campaign began.

He's a very smart and controlled candidate (as Obama was) and is the only one of the GOP field with the ability to sound like he's already running for the general election.

As with Obama in 2008, having a shit-ton of money raising potential doesn't hurt either.
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Old 01-03-2012, 01:16 PM   #1013
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1131 View Post
Plus, his campaign reminds me of Dean 2004 a bit; a nice bit of grassroots internet mobilization that I look back on fondly.
I sure don't. I volunteered and donated money to the guy's campaign....and then watched as Iowans said the war was the most important issue for them as they proceeded to vote for that war monger John Kerry. I lost faith in Democratic voters right then.

And then, the "Dean Scream"...just an excitable candidate trying to rile up his base for the next few states and the media plays bits of out of context. I realized right then that the media just loves a circus.

Then I watched as Dean ended up being fine with supporting someone like Kerry who hadn't taken a real stance on anything. I immediately lost faith with the Democratic party ever managing to accomplish anything.

Luckily, I was already registered Green, so I voted for Peter Camejo in the primary and then Nader in the general election. I've never looked back and have only ever voted for Democrats when there's no other liberal choices on the ballot and will never do so otherwise.
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Old 01-03-2012, 01:44 PM   #1014
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you see, it's not that Republicans are themselves racist; it's just that they say, do, and believe racist things that appeal to other people who aren't racist but just say, do, and believe racist things as well:

Quote:
Santorum targets blacks in entitlement reform

By
Lucy Madison

Updated: 6:35 p.m. ET

At a campaign stop in Sioux City, Iowa on Sunday, Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum singled out blacks as being recipients of assistance through federal benefit programs, telling a mostly-white audience he doesn't want to "make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money."

Answering a question about foreign influence on the U.S. economy, the former Pennsylvania senator went on to discuss the American entitlement system - which he argued is being used to politically exploit its beneficiaries.

"It just keeps expanding - I was in Indianola a few months ago and I was talking to someone who works in the department of public welfare here, and she told me that the state of Iowa is going to get fined if they don't sign up more people under the Medicaid program," Santorum said. "They're just pushing harder and harder to get more and more of you dependent upon them so they can get your vote. That's what the bottom line is."

He added: "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money."

"Right," responded one audience member, as another woman can be seen nodding.


"And provide for themselves and their families," Santorum added, to applause. "The best way to do that is to get the manufacturing sector of the economy rolling again."

It is unclear why Santorum pinpointed blacks specifically as recipients of federal aid. The original questioner asked "how do we get off this crazy train? We've got so much foreign influence in this country now," adding "where do we go from here?"

When asked about the comments in an interview with "CBS Evening News" anchor Scott Pelley, Santorum said he wasn't aware of the context of his remark, but mentioned that he had recently watched the movie "Waiting for Superman," which analyzes the American public education system through the stories of several students and their families. (The students and their families portrayed in the movie represent several races.)

"I've seen that quote, I haven't seen the context in which that was made," Santorum told Pelley, of the Sunday remarks. "Yesterday I talked for example about a movie called, um, what was it? 'Waiting for Superman,' which was about black children and so I don't know whether it was in response and I was talking about that."

Santorum stressed that he wants to make life better for Americans regardless of race.

"Let me just say that no matter what, I want to make every lives [sic] better - I don't want anybody - and if you look at what I've been saying, I've been pretty clear about my concern for dependency in this country and concern for people not being more dependent on our government, whatever their race or ethnicity is."

CBS News found that of the people on food stamps in Iowa, only nine percent are black and 84 percent are white.

Just days ago, the Pennsylvania conservative raised some eyebrows while talking about diversity at an event in Ottumwa, Iowa.

"I was at a debate with Howard Dean and we were asked what was the most imp quality of America and he said diversity. Diversity? Have you ever heard of e pluribus unum?....The greatness of America is people who are diverse coming together to be one," Santorum said. "If we celebrate diversity, we lay the groundwork for that conflict. We need to celebrate common values and have a president that lays out those common values."

Santorum targets blacks in entitlement reform - Political Hotsheet - CBS News
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Old 01-03-2012, 02:13 PM   #1015
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^ Actually, there's conflicting reports on what he said, so give Santorum the benefit of the doubt. I saw him on tv yesterday and he was asked about the comment, and he genuinely appeared like he had no idea what he was being asked about.

Did Santorum really say he didn’t want to make “black people’s lives better”? � Hot Air

Except that’s not what Santorum said at all. What he said was, “I don’t want to make [pause] lives, people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money.” This makes sense in the context of what immediately preceded this statement: “It [Medicaid] just keeps expanding. I was Indianola a few months ago, and I was talking with someone who works at the Department of Public Welfare here, and she told me that the state of Iowa is going to get fined if they don’t sign up more people under the Medicaid program. They’re just pushing harder and harder to get more and more of you dependent upon them so that they can get your vote.”

In other words, Santorum’s point didn’t have anything to do at all about race; it had to do with creating a dependency class that includes a lot of Iowans for political purposes. Whether one agrees with this or not, it’s pretty standard fare, and it’s certainly a legitimate concern to raise at a time when ObamaCare will expand the number of people eligible for government subsidies to families who make 60% more than the average household income. Instead of listening carefully to what Santorum actually said, CBS just assumed that Santorum was a racist. Don’t they watch the videos before transcribing them at CBS News?

One person who did listen to what Santorum said was my friend Tommy Christopher, who I assume doesn’t agree with Santorum’s point or much else Santorum has to say. Tommy, however, is both honest and thorough, and says that CBS gave Santorum a bum rap:

A review of a clearer version of the video, however, casts serious doubt on whether Santorum actually said “black people’s lives.”
CBS News has posted a cleaner version of Santorum’s remarks, and it seems as though Santorum did not actually say “black people’s lives,” but rather, that he stumbled in mid-sentence with a verbal tic that sounded like that.
“I don’t want to make…mmbligh…people’s lives better” is what it sounds like to me, although CBS News also transcribes it as “”make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money.”
Given the preceding context, in which he talks about the government trying to get more Iowans enrolled in Medicaid, the former explanation makes much more sense than the latter.
The Santorum campaign has still not returned our request for comment.
Here’s the CBS clip. The viewer can judge, but even as an LGBT-friendly liberal, I’m inclined to give Santorum the benefit of the doubt here.
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Old 01-03-2012, 03:03 PM   #1016
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this seems to happen a lot with the GOP. they didn't hear the cheers when someone suggested allowing people without insurance to die. they didn't hear the boos for the honorably serving gay soldier (or it was just one really, really loud person). it was a verbal tic and not the word "black."

but i suppose it's possible.

either way, the Republican assumption that it's only black people who receive welfare, or are the majority of welfare recipients, is a great big lie, one that's been repeated since Regan's racist "welfare queen" imagery of the 1980s, and if nothing else, this is a teachable moment.
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Old 01-03-2012, 03:32 PM   #1017
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Can I start the new thread? I've got one crackerjack of a thread title.
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Old 01-03-2012, 03:42 PM   #1018
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Go ahead, do it before someone else does!
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Old 01-03-2012, 03:44 PM   #1019
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