GOP Nominee 2012 - Who Will It Be?, Pt. 2

[corianderstem]

Oh, it's just the usual double standard. If you're a conservative and you call Obama, "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” you're racist. When a liberal says it he's called Mr. Vice President.

Yes, but with the added historical connotations of calling a black person a monkey. You may think it's overblown, but you shouldn't ignore it.

 

[yolland]

Salon, Dec. 13

For most of the year, Mitt Romney has had a serious problem that’s mostly been obscured by the absurd volatility of the GOP race: He’s a very tough sell in the South. Politico touches on this today in a story that acknowledges the unique obstacles Romney seems to face in the region while ultimately concluding that “the contest for the allegiance of Southern conservatives in the 2012 race is as wide open as ever.” That’s one way of looking at it, but there’s a more disheartening possibility for Romney as well: that with the rise of Newt Gingrich, Mitt-phobic Southerners finally have a consensus alternative with some staying power.

First, consider Romney’s plight in Dixie. South Carolina, which holds the historically pivotal first-in-the-South primary, has long been a problem for him. In 2008, when he pitched himself as the kind of true believer conservative that Southerners tend to find attractive, Romney finished fourth in the state, with just 15% of the vote—half of what Mike Huckabee, who nearly knocked off John McCain in the state, received. And in polling throughout 2011, South Carolina Republicans have made their yearning for a non-Romney candidate clear. Both Rick Perry and Herman Cain opened up double-digit leads over Romney when they were seen as his main foe earlier in the fall.

Polling has been less intense elsewhere in Dixie, since the other states don’t vote as early as South Carolina, but the signs are just as ominous. A Gallup poll released last week showed Romney getting just 15% of the vote across the region. That’s about where he’s been stuck all year; Gallup’s survey over the summer had him at 12%. This broad resistance in what for the GOP is a voter-rich region is dragging down Romney’s overall support, a major reason he’s failed to push past 30% in national polling.

Now factor in Gingrich’s potential impact. He’s not a native-born Southerner and doesn’t speak with a Southern accent, but the region is responding to his presidential candidacy with more enthusiasm than any other. South Carolina is a perfect example of this. The two most recent polls there show Gingrich mauling Romney by 23 and 19 points. So is North Carolina, where a new PPP poll puts Gingrich 37 points ahead of Romney, 51% to 14%. Or take Mississippi. The last poll conducted there was in early November, when Cain was still the hot commodity on the right and Gingrich was still barely cracking double-digits nationally. And yet a PPP survey of Mississippi Republicans still showed Gingrich in first place with 28%, followed by Cain and Perry. Romney was all the way back in fourth place with 12%.

For Romney, the implications of this are worrisome. If Gingrich manages to “win” Iowa (that is, he’s declared the big winner by the press), it will probably be the death knell for Perry, who is trying to make a campaign-saving stand in the state. And without Perry, a Texan with natural Dixie appeal, Gingrich will be well-positioned to capitalize on the potential that clearly exists for him in the South—starting with South Carolina and potentially carrying over to Super Tuesday on March 6, when five states from the old Confederacy will vote. In his ’08 campaign, Romney fared respectably in the South, finishing near the top in a handful of states. But that might have been deceptive, with Huckabee and John McCain generally gobbling up about two-thirds of the vote, making Romney seem more competitive than he actually was. This time there’s a chance Romney will only have one main opponent in the South.

The region’s apparent hostility toward him could come from several places. Maybe it’s a reflection of his supposed “Mormon problem” that’s been so widely discussed. Or it could just be his Northern roots. Or maybe it’s ideological. In the Obama-era, the South has been particularly kind to Tea Party Republicanism, which has meant new scrutiny of Romney’s moderate-to-liberal Massachusetts past. It’s also unclear what’s driving Gingrich’s Dixie appeal. His ties to Georgia, which he represented in the House for 20 years, surely help. But it may just be that the region is looking for someone, anyone who’s (a) viable; and (b) not named Mitt.

 

[INDY500]

Ron Paul closes 2012 gap in Iowa, according to poll - POLITICO.com

Ron Paul closes 2012 gap in Iowa, according to poll

There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

Paul has a core support that hasn't moved while others have moved up and down. If Paul is now breaking through that ceiling, well, it get's a little more interesting.

This plays right into the hands of my "brokered convention" scenario and a Daniels/Rubio ticket.

 

[corianderstem]

If Paul is now breaking through that ceiling, well, it get's a little more interesting.

Agreed.

I'm not sure how good or bad that is, but it would be more interesting.

 

[BVS]

Oh, it's just the usual double standard. If you're a conservative and you call Obama, "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” you're racist. When a liberal says it he's called Mr. Vice President.

You can now place 'context' along with 'nuance' as a sign of liberalism

 

[Canadiens1131]

Oh, it's just the usual double standard. If you're a conservative and you call Obama, "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” you're racist. When a liberal says it he's called Mr. Vice President.

Joe Biden is a boob.

Once again, sorry being a white Christian is so hard, Indy, my sympathies really go out to you.

 

[INDY500]

Once again, sorry being a white Christian is so hard, Indy, my sympathies really go out to you.

Wow, never thought I'd be the recipient of liberal guilt. But thanks.

 

[Irvine511]

Once again, sorry being a white Christian is so hard, Indy, my sympathies really go out to you.

it's is tough for white people these days.

you can't be openly racist anymore. you know, it's like, "why can't i use the n-word if all these rappers are using it? what a total double standard!"

 

[Steved1998]

Remember how much outrage these caused? Guess the outrage was selective.

It's not the same. Normal people don't compare a black person to a monkey unless you're some kind of skinhead racist.

 

[Steved1998]

Ron Paul closes 2012 gap in Iowa, according to poll - POLITICO.com



Paul has a core support that hasn't moved while others have moved up and down. If Paul is now breaking through that ceiling, well, it get's a little more interesting.

This plays right into the hands of my "brokered convention" scenario and a Daniels/Rubio ticket.

Iowa Caucus results usually don't indicate who the nominee is going to be unless an incumbent is running. They tend to be a lot more conservative

Mike Huckabee won in 2008 and didn't win the nomination
Pat Buchanan came close to winning it in 1996
Bob Dole won in 88 and didn't win the nomination
George Bush won in 80 and didn't win the nomination

You can see the same trend with the Democrats:
Tom Harkin won in 92
Dick Gephart won in 88

The caucuses are closely followed by the media and can be an important factor in determining who remains in the race and who drops out. However, the only non-incumbent candidates to win their party's caucus and go on to win the general election were George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008. Neither Reagan nor Bill Clinton won prior to their first terms. No incumbent President has run opposed in his own party's caucus since Jimmy Carter in 1980. Iowa caucuses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'd like to see Paul win just to see how it effects the positions of the other candidates, although I doubt it would have much effect.

 

[maycocksean]

Remember how much outrage these caused? Guess the outrage was selective.

Those cartoons are awful, especially the first one!

Oh, it's just the usual double standard. If you're a conservative and you call Obama, "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” you're racist. When a liberal says it he's called Mr. Vice President.

Seems I recall Biden got a lot of flack for his comment.

it's is tough for white people these days.

Press Play >>>

"Ya'll don't know what it's like to be male, middle-class and white"

 

[corianderstem]

Seems I recall Biden got a lot of flack for his comment.

He did. And rightly so.

 

[PhilsFan]

That's the insane thing. INDY seems to think Biden got off from that comment with pats on the back and everyone from Anderson Cooper to BVS to Olbermann to Irvine going "Attaboy, Joe!"

 

[Steved1998]

Fox News really doesn't like Romney

Look Who's Running Second

Looks like they're transitioning to just pure trolling.

 

[2861U2]

Not cool, FNC. Not cool.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I'm sure it was all just an innocent mistake. Or a baby seal broke into the control room and mixed up the pictures.

 

[BVS]

Not cool, FNC. Not cool.

Eye opening eh?

 

[Canadiens1131]

Wait, that puckered anus Santorum is still officially in the race for the nomination?




Even a silly Canadian like me knows that that's Utah, not Nevada.

I am beginning to think that FNC is just having a laugh and not really trying

 

[Earnie Shavers]

Far out, their graphics guy just keeps on making these silly - innocent! - mistakes.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/star-spangled-staggers/2011/12/fox-news-unemployment-fall

 

[Earnie Shavers]

Romney and/or his people should, if speaking on this, refer to Fox as the beloved 'the mainstream media'. "You know, Fox, MSNBC, these mainstream media outlets..."

 

[Irvine511]

go Ron Paul, go!

 

[yolland]

FOX's Chris Wallace--who will be moderating tonight's debate in Iowa--on Ron Paul's better-than-ever chances of winning in Iowa (per the Washington Post):

Well, the Ron Paul people aren’t going to like my saying this, but to a certain degree it will discredit the Iowa caucuses because, rightly or wrongly, I think most of the Republican establishment thinks he’s not going to end up as the nominee and therefore Iowa won’t count and it will go on.

Really, "the Republican establishment thinks he's not going to end up as the nominee" therefore a win would "discredit" the Iowa caucuses?

 

[Irvine511]

the "Republican establishment" certainly came out guns blazing today against Newt.

except for Rudy.

 

[Tiger Edge]

Out of curiosity, where did the Tea Party go? How come they aren't out supporting someone? Or was the Tea Party Express strictly for nutjobs like Palin and Cain?

 

[BVS]

Out of curiosity, where did the Tea Party go? How come they aren't out supporting someone? Or was the Tea Party Express strictly for nutjobs like Palin and Cain?

Fighting the war on Christmas?

 

[deep]

Out of curiosity, where did the Tea Party go? How come they aren't out supporting someone? Or was the Tea Party Express strictly for nutjobs like Palin and Cain?

they were out in force big time

you didn't see the polls

Perry blew up big, (before he self imploded)

Cain blew up big, (before his past and true self, imploded his chances)

now Tea Party has to figure out if it is who they are for,
that would be Bachmann or Santorum

or who they are against, if who they are against is a reelected Obama
they will most likely pull the lever for Gingrich, because his record of taking down liberal democrats, is better than the alternative, a Massachusetts Republican

 

[Tiger Edge]

Well I meant after Cain was out, but yes. I too believe they wouldn't vote for someone from Taxachusetts, even if he was a Republican. Just far too many liberal bedfellows.
It's just weird that they haven't organized and come up with something yet. They put all their chips into the wrong baskets.

They really need a Republican Obama and they simply haven't found one yet. Every time one crops up (Jindal, for example) they inevitably say or do something stupid and fuck it up.

Honestly I think the Tea Party was the worst possible thing for the GOP. It cut them in half without actually cutting them in half. I suspect the same will happen to the Democrats (regarding OWS), but it won't happen until after 2012 because they desperately want to keep a Democrat in power. It would be nice to have four groups to choose from though.

Social/Economic Conservative
Social Liberal/Economic Conservative
Social Conservative/Economic Liberal
Social/Economic Liberal


Only in the nomination/race process. I think it would actually be worse in Congress if they didn't have a strict us or them attitude.

 

[deep]

Honestly I think the Tea Party was the worst possible thing for the GOP.

you seem to be forming your opinion solely on longevity, instead of accomplishments

Tea Party has one of the greatest political accomplishments ever,

look at the 2010 Congressional elections, and Govenorships wins, etc.

one of the biggest one party landslides ever, going back to the 30s or 40s?


I will admit to being a bit skeptical of the 2008 Obama Nation (Hope - Change) campaign

I can't dismiss their accomplishments in the 2008 elections, across the board.

By 2010m it had collapsed. That does not mean the Obama Nation movement was a mistake.

OWS, is worthless, they are a net loss for the Democrats
if the Democrats want to have success they need a more broad-base movement with more legitimacy, like Obama Nation 2008.

 

[Tiger Edge]

I'm only looking forward, deep. The fact that the Tea Party has yet to put up a worthy candidate or throw their weight behind a current one spells a disaster for the GOP politically. A few months ago I would have said Obama had little chance at reelection, but it seems like the current GOP selection is trying their damnedest to do all of Obama's dirty work in discrediting each other.
I guess this can be said about every election cycle... so ignore this?

 

[Canadiens1131]

Paul is a libertarian in GOP clothing.

I don't agree with him on a lot of things, but I have to hand it to him: he's a retired doctor with no corporate interests, he's not trying to parlay his political career into a private sector windfall, he's the only GOP candidate who is able to project the slightest bit of wisdom or thoughtfulness. No wonder he's being actively ignored by the party and the media.

It's a sad time when we dismiss the only candidate who is willing to speak honestly as "crazy old Dr. Paul".