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Old 01-06-2011, 07:49 PM   #121
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I just spent a few minutes adding up the EVs on the 2012 map, excluding Ohio and Florida, and got Obama with 250 and the GOP with 227. I made a few educated guesses- IA and WI going red, CO and NM going blue- but there's no doubt the election will hinge on those two states, and I have a hard time picturing Obama doing well there, or certainly not to the extent of his 2008 victories there.
Iowa going red in 2012? Ehhhh, I dunno about that. Same with Wisconsin. I can't see them doing that. I think Obama should do fine in those states again.

I do agree that Ohio and Florida will definitely be battleground states, though, no question. The Democrats are certainly going to have to find ways to win the support of those citizens. Especially in Ohio, given that their economy, as I hear it, isn't exactly the strongest right now.

Michigan might be a bit of a tough sell, too. Detroit's pretty much fallen apart and the economy in general in that state sucks, too.

Angela
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Old 01-06-2011, 09:37 PM   #122
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Good job, you're a real champ. I'd debate with you but I think you should have an opponent more on your own level of competition, like a Darth Vader pez dispenser.
Unnecessary. Let's keep the insults out of it, all.
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Old 01-06-2011, 09:57 PM   #123
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Democrats have had many dreams over the years. But it hasn't changed the fact that they have only re-elected ONE president since World War II.
Since World War I every Democrat President that ran for re-election has won, except one.
The Republicans have not been as successful. And that's a fact.
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Old 01-06-2011, 10:01 PM   #124
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Unnecessary. Let's keep the insults out of it, all.
But does it really count when he's insulting someone that by forum rules shouldn't be posting in here?
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Old 01-06-2011, 10:11 PM   #125
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Rude behavior is not conducive to the purpose of this discussion board.

I don't think people should be excluded because some people don't like their style.

I am glad we have this new username posting. We do need a mix of different view points in here.

If someone does not like a particular style of posting, they should just not respond to it. Or only respond to it when they feel like it.
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Old 01-06-2011, 10:12 PM   #126
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But does it really count when he's insulting someone that by forum rules shouldn't be posting in here?
has he finally dropped the faux u2 fan persona he arrived with?
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Old 01-06-2011, 10:13 PM   #127
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Iowa going red in 2012? Ehhhh, I dunno about that. Same with Wisconsin. I can't see them doing that. I think Obama should do fine in those states again.

Michigan might be a bit of a tough sell, too. Detroit's pretty much fallen apart and the economy in general in that state sucks, too.

Angela
I think Wisconsin has a shot of going red. They did just elect a GOP governor and senator this past election. Plus, living in northern Illinois and making trips there once in a while I sense a lot of anxiety with Obama. Anecdotal, sure, but I'll say it goes red for the time being.

As for Michigan, if Romney's the nominee that could put it in play, but I'll believe it when I see it.
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Old 01-06-2011, 10:27 PM   #128
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I think Wisconsin has a shot of going red. They did just elect a GOP governor and senator this past election. Plus, living in northern Illinois and making trips there once in a while I sense a lot of anxiety with Obama. Anecdotal, sure, but I'll say it goes red for the time being.
Hm. That's interesting. I'll take your word for it on that, then-I've never been to Wisconsin, but I'd just always heard they tended to not be very conservative. Maybe it depends on the area of the state or something, too, who knows. If you went out to the western part of Iowa, after all, you'd find people who are also a bit nervous about Obama, too. That area of the state definitely tends to be more conservative.

And then of course there's the people who supported him but are disillusioned, and that will be a problem in states that usually go blue, definitely. It's certainly going to be interesting next year (man, I can't believe I'm already saying that).

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As for Michigan, if Romney's the nominee that could put it in play, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Good point.

Angela
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Old 01-06-2011, 10:31 PM   #129
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I don't think people should be excluded because some people don't like their style.
No one ever said they wanted this...
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Old 01-07-2011, 01:16 AM   #130
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Since World War I every Democrat President that ran for re-election has won, except one.
The Republicans have not been as successful. And that's a fact.
I love arbitrary periods too! Can I play along?

Over the last 68 years since FDR first took office, Dems have held the Presidency for 42 of those years. That's 62% and that is including the 20/28 stretch between Reagan and HW Bush.

The Reps only took office during that stretch by gaining what, class?

Did you answer:
 
"Reagan Democrats"

You are correct.

But the truth is, be it Dems or Reps, moderate to conservative fiscal policy is a winning policy, period. Clinton was re-elected when he (was seen to have) moved to the middle. LBJ was already a conservative Dem (amazingly, outside of civil rights).

I think for those of us who've grown up during the Reagan era-present, it sure feels like Republicans own the White House. I'm 35. Democrats have held the WH for only 14 of my years. But for my dad, who is exactly 68 - see above.
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Old 01-07-2011, 06:48 AM   #131
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Unnecessary. Let's keep the insults out of it, all.
I'd counter that my bitterface avatar, with Bill Murray's cold, distant look, would preface all the following remarks in each of my posts as cynical.

I will try to be better.
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Old 01-07-2011, 10:03 AM   #132
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I think it's possible for Wisconsin to Red in 2012. I believe 2004 and 2008 were very tight races there. Even MN was close in 2004. Wisconsin still is a big manufacturing state, so if unemployment is improving there, it bodes well for Obama.

Ohio is losing 2 electoral votes, and Pennsylvania is losing one.
Texas is gaining 4 votes, and Florida gains 2.
Utah, Nevada and Arizona each gain one, (all) largely because of increases in Hispanic populations.

Florida is Purple. Period.
Ohio Red? -not a big surprise. Pennsylvania Red? -a little more unexpected.
Utah Blue? Arizona Blue? Texas Blue? -Democratic coups that are increasingly possible.

Whether Republicans or Democrats control the State legislatures and Governorships will make a difference in the reapportionment of Congressional seats from the 2010 Census. But, there won't be massive shake-ups in Congressional districts.

Honestly, if Republicans continue to cater to the Tea Party and ignore Hispanics (or worse, vilify them), it will be to their long-term detriment. (And, it could come as early as 2012.)
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Old 01-07-2011, 10:35 AM   #133
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Honestly, if Republicans continue to cater to the Tea Party and ignore Hispanics (or worse, vilify them), it will be to their long-term detriment. (And, it could come as early as 2012.)

absolutely.

it kind of amazed me that in 2010, the GOP now hates Latinos more than gays, i.e., Dream vs. DADT.

good luck with that.
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Old 01-07-2011, 10:50 AM   #134
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Actually, the GOP made gains among Latinos in November. In 2006, they voted 69-30 Democratic. In 2010, it was 60-38, and victories by Governors Martinez in NM, Sandoval in NV, and Senator Rubio have the potential to make greater inroads there.
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Old 01-07-2011, 12:18 PM   #135
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Actually, the GOP made gains among Latinos in November. In 2006, they voted 69-30 Democratic. In 2010, it was 60-38, and victories by Governors Martinez in NM, Sandoval in NV, and Senator Rubio have the potential to make greater inroads there.
The opposition to Dream and other moves they've made this year will set them back.
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