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Old 01-05-2011, 10:59 AM   #106
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Although out of that list I think those might be the only two that can get independents.

This will be the GOPs hardest fight; trying to win the tea party types and the independents at the same time. If they don't I think big portions might stay home.

We'll see

That's exactly why they won't win. The Democrats losing badly in 2010 was mostly because of turnout. In almost every election for the last 50-60 years, the party that wins big loses seats in the following election. Because voting isn't mandatory, only the most pissed off people bother to go to the polls two years later. Truthfully, it's kind of stupid that voting isn't mandatory because it basically means the will of the people is never followed, just switching back-and-forth every two years.

Granted, the Democrats losses were huge. The economy got the Conservatives riled up along with the Fox News/corporate funded tea parties. But so many young people, minorities, and especially, blacks stayed home this election. When Obama's running at the top of the ticket against someone with socially conservative policies that those groups (especially the young) abhor, it will be a blowout.

Furthermore, if you look at the Electoral Map for 2012, the Republicans would have to make so many gains that it would be extremely hard for them to win. Personally, I could even see them winning the popular vote in a landslide but being shut out because they couldn't make in-roads in a few states. If the Democrats were strategically smart, they would focus all of their money on a few stronger hold states and give up the really close ones. Imagine if virtually all of the campaign money of theirs were directed to just 2-3 states? It would pretty much assure victory. The Republicans have to get about a half-dozen that they lost last time while the Democrats just need to hold about two out of 8 close ones.

Ultimately, the best hope for the GOP would be to aim for a socially moderate conservative. John McCain was considered a moderate compared to the rest of the '08 GOP hopefuls and that led to him having the best head-to-head poll numbers against Clinton/Obama...and in turn, that's why he won the primaries. The same thing will happen again....if GOP-ers and Tea Partiers actually care so much about fiscal conservatism, then they'd better sacrifice the far right nuttiness of those extremist Christians or else they're guaranteed a loss on a silver platter. If they continue to go against gay marriages, evolution, immigration, global warming and abortions...all things that continue to have an increase in public support over the years, the party will continue to lose across the country. Aside from this recent binge of so-called Independents switching their registration to Republicans (and let's be honest, the reason why there were always so many more registered Democrats is because life-long GOP-ers loved to pretend they were outside the establishment by registering Independent), Republican registrations have continually declined over the last decade. Their base is effectively dying and also becoming a smaller percentage of the country's ethnographic makeup.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:13 AM   #107
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Incorrect. It only has to be seen as improving. Like I said, most people correctly acknowledge that the recession began before Obama took office. Since then, the stock market has rebounded, the economy has slowly improved. If unemployment is still high, but seen as improving, no matter how slightly, Obama will win. His argument that American should not give the keys back to the people who drove us into the ditch is a good one.
Well, thats not historically accurate based on what other Presidents have faced during tough economic times. Based on historical facts, what matters most to voters is jobs. The majority of the population is not involved or heavily involved in the stock market. Bad Unemployment or Inflation can sink any Presidency as shown by history.

Obama will not be able to walk through re-election with unemployment above 9%. Its not going to happen and he knows that his re-election prospects are dependent on getting unemployment down. Several of the posters in here have actually acknowledged this fact.

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Remember, there is one fact that you're conveniently ignoring here. And it's that Republicans have a far lower approval rating than Obama. Further, Obama's approval rating has endured ridiculously high unemployment for the last year and a half. On August 24, 2009, Obama's approval/disapproval ratings were 50/43. Yesterday, they were 50/43.
But what is the average trend over time. Obama's first 6 months, 2nd 6 months, 3rd 6 months, 4th 6 months. I think you will find the trend shows Obama's approval rating steadily decreasing.

The person who will challenge Obama in 2012 will likely be a Republican who is not in Washington and may have never held a position in Washington which will be a plus. The overall federal government is not popular these days which will benefit and outsider in the election.

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No matter which way you look at it, it's going to be extremely difficult to beat Obama. Now, I'll agree with you that unemployment will play a big role here, but only if it's worse or seen as unchanging. But with an improving economy, I think that's pretty unlikely. Of course, anything can happen with the economy.

Bottom line: 10% unemployment. 50% approval. Those numbers should scare the hell out of republicans
Grace periods don't last forever. Obama can't run against George Bush in 2012. Unemployment in January 2010 was 9.7%. In November 2010, almost a year later its 9.8%. That sort of record keeps up over the next year, Obama is unlikely to be re-elected in 2012.

Now, I still think there is time for Obama to move the unemployment numbers in the right direction to a degree that would give him a good chance at being re-elected, but there needs to be significant movement in the unemployment rate over the next 8 months for this to happen.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:17 AM   #108
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LPU2, you keep mentioning Obama's nationwide approval numbers, but that number doesn't really matter. The trend is bad news for him, and RCP puts his disapproval number higher than the approval. The election will come down to a number of swing states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (potentially a GOP pickup), Virginia, and maybe a couple others.

Obama's approval numbers in those states as of August (most recent data I could find):

Ohio
Rasmussen: 53% disapprove (42% "strongly"), 46% approve
PPP: 54% disapprove, 42% approve. Independents disapprove 58-33. Healthcare opposed 53-38.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Economic policies disapprove 54-41. Healthcare opposed 55-36.

Florida
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (44% "strongly"), 41% approve. Healthcare opposed 49 (42% strongly) to 45.
PPP: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Healthcare opposed 47-45.

Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: 54% disapprove (45% "strongly"), 46% approve.
PPP: 50% disapprove, 43% approve. Independents disapprove 61-32. Healthcare opposed 51-40.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 46% approve. Independents disapprove 53-40. Would NOT re-elect Obama 48-42 (51-35 among Independents). Disapprove Obama's economic policies 55-40. Healthcare opposed 54-37.

Virginia
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (40% strongly), 49% approve. Healthcare opposed 56-41.

Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections, I don't think they've changed much since August. If unemployment is 9.5 in the summer of 2012, and closes to 9.3 on election day, that won't save him. And if Romney's the nominee, he'll (Romney) no doubt be going in as the favorite.
Great points. Thanks for the numbers. Its not really the national approval numbers, but the approval numbers in these states that matter.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:19 AM   #109
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Ultimately, the best hope for the GOP would be to aim for a socially moderate conservative. John McCain was considered a moderate compared to the rest of the '08 GOP hopefuls and that led to him having the best head-to-head poll numbers against Clinton/Obama...and in turn, that's why he won the primaries. The same thing will happen again....if GOP-ers and Tea Partiers actually care so much about fiscal conservatism, then they'd better sacrifice the far right nuttiness of those extremist Christians or else they're guaranteed a loss on a silver platter.
And this is actually something that is being talked about quite a bit. There are conservative talk shows and even some now within the party asking if they should just abandon social issues all together this time around and only focus on economic ones. If they could do this they'd win in a landslide, but they are far too bat shit insane to let go of some of these issues and it will be there downfall. A lot of fair minded independents and even Republicans are sick and tired of being wrong ALL the time when it comes to social issues and science.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:20 AM   #110
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Of the states you list, Ohio and Florida both have conducted recent matchup polls. In those polls Obama beats every single one of your candidates head to head. This despite 10% unemployment. Because my central point is that Obama's approval is only going to improve when the economy does.

Both Reagan and Clinton's numbers were lower than Obama's are now. Yet both were re-elected in near-landslides.

I doubt the republican party shares your optimism.
There are few people out there that would dismiss having 10% unemployment as being and obstacle to re-election in either party.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:29 AM   #111
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Ultimately, the best hope for the GOP would be to aim for a socially moderate conservative. John McCain was considered a moderate compared to the rest of the '08 GOP hopefuls and that led to him having the best head-to-head poll numbers against Clinton/Obama...and in turn, that's why he won the primaries. The same thing will happen again....if GOP-ers and Tea Partiers actually care so much about fiscal conservatism, then they'd better sacrifice the far right nuttiness of those extremist Christians or else they're guaranteed a loss on a silver platter. If they continue to go against gay marriages, evolution, immigration, global warming and abortions...all things that continue to have an increase in public support over the years, the party will continue to lose across the country. Aside from this recent binge of so-called Independents switching their registration to Republicans (and let's be honest, the reason why there were always so many more registered Democrats is because life-long GOP-ers loved to pretend they were outside the establishment by registering Independent), Republican registrations have continually declined over the last decade. Their base is effectively dying and also becoming a smaller percentage of the country's ethnographic makeup.
Well, its not the first time in United States history that someone has forcasted the death of another party, and essentially claimed that their party would forever have a lock on the Presidency. LOL

In 2012, Gay marriage, evolution, immigration, global warming and abortions are not going to be factors in the election. Unemployment will be a factor though, a very big one.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:30 AM   #112
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There are few people out there that would dismiss having 10% unemployment as being and obstacle to re-election in either party.

No one is dismissing it manofmanyalters, it's just that some of us understand that number isn't as black and white as you find it. Some of us understand context
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:34 AM   #113
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And this is actually something that is being talked about quite a bit. There are conservative talk shows and even some now within the party asking if they should just abandon social issues all together this time around and only focus on economic ones. If they could do this they'd win in a landslide, but they are far too bat shit insane to let go of some of these issues and it will be there downfall. A lot of fair minded independents and even Republicans are sick and tired of being wrong ALL the time when it comes to social issues and science.
Well, there hasn't been any US Presidential elections that were decided by social issues or science. Republicans have a very decent record winning Presidential elections since 1969.

There has only been one Democratic President that has won re-election since 1944, and thats Bill Clinton.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:35 AM   #114
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No one is dismissing it manofmanyalters, it's just that some of us understand that number isn't as black and white as you find it. Some of us understand context
Sorry, forgive me for my ignorance.
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:43 AM   #115
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Well, there hasn't been any US Presidential elections that were decided by social issues or science.
I will say it again, you're completely tone deaf.

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Sorry, forgive me for my ignorance.
No need for forgiveness, just try not to revel in it so much...
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Old 01-05-2011, 12:33 PM   #116
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Furthermore, if you look at the Electoral Map for 2012, the Republicans would have to make so many gains that it would be extremely hard for them to win.
Gains from 2008, yes. But if they can reclaim traditionally red states, they'll be in fine shape.

I just spent a few minutes adding up the EVs on the 2012 map, excluding Ohio and Florida, and got Obama with 250 and the GOP with 227. I made a few educated guesses- IA and WI going red, CO and NM going blue- but there's no doubt the election will hinge on those two states, and I have a hard time picturing Obama doing well there, or certainly not to the extent of his 2008 victories there.

The last five two-term presidents (Ike, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, W.) all had larger EV victories in their re-election. I don't see that happening this time around. Maybe I'll be wrong. Doesn't mean he won't win, but it's a little too early for either side to start declaring victory.
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Old 01-05-2011, 12:42 PM   #117
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but it's a little too early for either side to start declaring victory.
Absolutely
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Old 01-05-2011, 02:55 PM   #118
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You can't talk about 2012 without talking about immigration and redistricting. Hispanic populations have grown significantly in Florida, Texas, Arizona, Colorado and elsewhere, to the point that some lefties and moderates are forecasting Texas as going Blue in 2016 (and maybe 2012).

Throw in a revisiting of illegal immigration and The DREAM Act, and Republicans might want to start to soften some of their rhetoric for fear of losing votes (nevermind losing Texas, which would all but guarantee Democratic presidents for years to come).
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Old 01-06-2011, 07:08 PM   #119
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which would all but guarantee Democratic presidents for years to come).
Democrats have had many dreams over the years. But it hasn't changed the fact that they have only re-elected ONE president since World War II.
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Old 01-06-2011, 07:14 PM   #120
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Democrats have had many dreams over the years. But it hasn't changed the fact that they have only re-elected ONE president since World War II.
kramwest just outlined foretasted voter demographic trends in the future, and your comeback is to mention a completely unrelated statistic from the past.

Good job, you're a real champ. I'd debate with you but I think you should have an opponent more on your own level of competition, like a Darth Vader pez dispenser.
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