GOP Nominee 2012 - who will it be? - Page 6 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 01-04-2011, 11:12 AM   #76
The Fly
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 131
Local Time: 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kramwest1 View Post
You're giving people WAY too much credit. The average American will interpret that question in whatever timeframe they feel like. Very few people are so clinical about answering that type of question.

.
On the contrary, people often do look at it that way. Reagan exploited this particular question in both 1980 and 1984 and it worked magnificently!

Quote:
Since the economy will be improving (barring...), the only question Republicans can ask in 2012 is "Why hasn't the recovery been faster?" And, given their role in congress, they will have to be careful about vilifying Obama/the economy too much, since they will have had a significant seat at the table for the past 2 years
Its a weak seat relative to Democratic control of the Senate and the White House. Its unknown yet what the unemployment situation will look like a in 8 months or 20 months. But that will be the measure by which people will assess the economic situation. It won't be enough to site 2% or 3% GDP growth, but with the unemployment figures locked at 9%. This is the worse unemployment rate since the 1930s, and its going to take some real heavy lifting in between now and election day for things to change substantially so Obama can be re-elected. Its definitely possible. Reagan did it in 1983-1984. But the improvement has to be sustained and significant enough that the voters on the street can feel it.
__________________

__________________
adam4bono is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 11:19 AM   #77
The Fly
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 131
Local Time: 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
check your stats

when Bush left office unemployment was closer to 8%
and the country was in a free-fall economic collapse
In February of 2008, the unemployment rate was only 4.8%. When the 2012 election is in full swing in February 2012, what will the unemployment rate be? Will it be 9% compared to just 4.8% four years earlier?

The unemployment rate did not start to go up until the last 6 months Bush was in office, and it never topped 8%. With Obama, the unemployment rate has topped 8% for all 24 months and 9.4% for 20 of those months including a high of 10.1%. People are not going to be looking at Bush's last 6 months in office on November 2, 2012, they are going to be looking at the past 45 months that Obama was in office. What type of jobs situation did they live under for the past 45 months? Thats going to have a powerful impact on whether or not Obama gets re-elected. The longer the unmployment rate stays above 9%, the chances that Obama will be re-elected steadily decrease.
__________________

__________________
adam4bono is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 11:23 AM   #78
The Fly
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 131
Local Time: 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LPU2 View Post
I think you're underestimating the American electorate. Only the extraordinarily naive (OK, Fox News viewers) blame Obama for the unemployment.

Here's a visual. Guess where Obama came in?

Whats extraordinarily naive is to think that voters won't care what the economic and job situation was for the past 45 months under Obama on election day. Obama can't run against Bush in 2012. He is going to have to defend his OWN record. He is not going to be able to pass off 9% unemployment in 2012 on someone who has not been President in four years. The unemployment rate is a negative, a big negative, and if Obama cannot sigificantly correct it, he is unlikely to be re-elected.
__________________
adam4bono is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 11:30 AM   #79
The Fly
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 131
Local Time: 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner El Guapo View Post
2008 Delegate count
McCain 1,575
Huckabee 278
Romney 271

Actually Mitt was 3rd and McCain crushed them both.
Romney was beaten into submission (ran out of $$$) or else he would have finished 2nd. Huckabee conserved his money and was able to pick up enough delegates to actually be the runner-up.

But in the spirit of moment, I think it is probably appropriate to say that Romney, if not the actual runner-up, was the runner-up in spirit. But with that said, I don't think "tough fight" is accurate. Romney underperformed, period.



Couldn't disagree more. I think MA healthcare will sink him.
But absolutely agree that being from outside of DC will help.
If Romney can weasel his way out of the HC issue, he should be very formidable.
I'm talking about the race itself. If McCain had not beaten Romney in Florida, Romney may have won. The early states and key victories in the early states is what matters. After that its all just a formality. The winner always has a large margin in delegates because victory or defeat often happens early in the race in the key states. Then the rest of the States just jump on board with the winner.
__________________
adam4bono is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 11:32 AM   #80
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
 
BVS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: between my head and heart
Posts: 40,697
Local Time: 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adam4bono View Post
There was massive opposition to John McCain in the Republican party. In fact Democrats would often bring that up with glee because they feared running against McCain the most. Had the economy not collapsed at the end of 2008, McCain would likely have won.

I don't know of any Republicans that have refered to Patreus as a "Traitor". Can you tell us which Republicans in congress think General Patreus is a "traitor"?
Massive opposition? Really?

You really think McCain had an easy win up until that point? You must be paying attention to a different world than I am.

I didn't say Republicans in congress, I said the far right. Limbaugh and many others(in fact there may have been a few in Congress) didn't like his stance on torture and Gitmo and accused him of catering to Obama.
__________________
BVS is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 11:36 AM   #81
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
 
BVS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: between my head and heart
Posts: 40,697
Local Time: 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adam4bono View Post
The unemployment rate did not start to go up until the last 6 months Bush was in office, and it never topped 8%. With Obama, the unemployment rate has topped 8% for all 24 months and 9.4% for 20 of those months including a high of 10.1%. People are not going to be looking at Bush's last 6 months in office on November 2, 2012, they are going to be looking at the past 45 months that Obama was in office. What type of jobs situation did they live under for the past 45 months? Thats going to have a powerful impact on whether or not Obama gets re-elected. The longer the unmployment rate stays above 9%, the chances that Obama will be re-elected steadily decrease.
Unfortunately this is a very uneducated section of the population if they believe numbers like that occur over night and it wasn't the years of policy behind it that caused such dips. But that's just reality, a largely uninformed populace... and a party that caters to them.
__________________
BVS is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 11:37 AM   #82
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
 
BVS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: between my head and heart
Posts: 40,697
Local Time: 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adam4bono View Post
The hurdle that no one wants to have is Obama's. Its 9.8% unemployment. As long as you can't be tied to that, your in a good position.
Way to dodge my friend
__________________
BVS is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 12:48 PM   #83
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,499
Local Time: 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adam4bono View Post
Obama does have a grace period, but its not going to last forever. His approval ratings have been as low as 41% over the past few months which is not good regardless of the situation or comparisons to past Presidents. Obama's monthly average on approval will continue to decline the longer the unemployment rate remains so high.




it's getting difficult to discuss with you because you don't seem to have a good grasp of the facts.

here's a site that combines all the polling data:

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

if you'd like to compare him to other presidents, at least in the Gallup Poll, you can look here:

Presidential Job Approval Center



hope that helps!
__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 12:49 PM   #84
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,499
Local Time: 07:09 AM
oh my.

it's just dawning on me.

who we are talking to.

__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 01:03 PM   #85
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
 
BVS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: between my head and heart
Posts: 40,697
Local Time: 06:09 AM
Alter?
__________________
BVS is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 01:11 PM   #86
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,499
Local Time: 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BVS View Post
Alter?


i'll give you 1441 hints ...
__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 01:19 PM   #87
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
 
BVS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: between my head and heart
Posts: 40,697
Local Time: 06:09 AM


It all makes sense now...
__________________
BVS is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 01:23 PM   #88
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,499
Local Time: 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adam4bono View Post
This is the worse unemployment rate since the 1930s,


the worst. not worse, worst.
__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 03:16 PM   #89
War Child
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 706
Local Time: 05:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adam4bono View Post
Whats extraordinarily naive is to think that voters won't care what the economic and job situation was for the past 45 months under Obama on election day. Obama can't run against Bush in 2012. He is going to have to defend his OWN record. He is not going to be able to pass off 9% unemployment in 2012 on someone who has not been President in four years. The unemployment rate is a negative, a big negative, and if Obama cannot sigificantly correct it, he is unlikely to be re-elected.
Incorrect. It only has to be seen as improving. Like I said, most people correctly acknowledge that the recession began before Obama took office. Since then, the stock market has rebounded, the economy has slowly improved. If unemployment is still high, but seen as improving, no matter how slightly, Obama will win. His argument that American should not give the keys back to the people who drove us into the ditch is a good one.

Remember, there is one fact that you're conveniently ignoring here. And it's that Republicans have a far lower approval rating than Obama. Further, Obama's approval rating has endured ridiculously high unemployment for the last year and a half. On August 24, 2009, Obama's approval/disapproval ratings were 50/43. Yesterday, they were 50/43.

No matter which way you look at it, it's going to be extremely difficult to beat Obama. Now, I'll agree with you that unemployment will play a big role here, but only if it's worse or seen as unchanging. But with an improving economy, I think that's pretty unlikely. Of course, anything can happen with the economy.

Bottom line: 10% unemployment. 50% approval. Those numbers should scare the hell out of republicans.
__________________
LPU2 is offline  
Old 01-04-2011, 03:26 PM   #90
War Child
 
Inner El Guapo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 609
Local Time: 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
i'll give you 1441 hints ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by BVS View Post


It all makes sense now...
I told all of you guys a while back.

WikiLeaks largest classified military leak - Page 27 - U2 Feedback

FTR, there is a clear 'tell'. I won't reveal what it is though.
Might need it again.
__________________

__________________
Inner El Guapo is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:09 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com