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Old 01-03-2011, 12:52 PM   #61
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Well, the same was said about John McCain, and he still won the nomination. Plus, once a party is out of power in the White House, the desire to compromise in order to win increases.
No, they weren't really that vocal about it until after the fact... pretty convenient for them don't you think?

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Also, I don't know any Republican that considers General Patreus to be a "traitor". You won't get that from any Republican but you sure do get that from Democrats especially moveon.org
You haven't been paying attention.
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Old 01-03-2011, 12:55 PM   #62
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Romney really does not have any, and being from outside Washington DC is going to be a plus in 2012. Congress and the White House have not become more popular over the last two years.
You're pretty tone deaf if you truly believe he doesn't have any. His religion doesn't sit well with some "real" christian types. Romney care is going to be a big hurdle as well...
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Old 01-03-2011, 01:17 PM   #63
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Oh it will matter before September/October 2012. Starting in November 2011, Republicans will starting asking the question, Are you better off than you were four years ago? When you compare a 9.5% unemployment rate to one that was just 4.8% four years earlier, most people are going to answer that question with a big NO.
You're giving people WAY too much credit. The average American will interpret that question in whatever timeframe they feel like. Very few people are so clinical about answering that type of question.

Since the economy will be improving (barring...), the only question Republicans can ask in 2012 is "Why hasn't the recovery been faster?" And, given their role in congress, they will have to be careful about vilifying Obama/the economy too much, since they will have had a significant seat at the table for the past 2 years.
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Old 01-03-2011, 02:56 PM   #64
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[/B]When you compare a 9.5% unemployment rate to one that was just 4.8% four years earlier, most people are going to answer that question with a big NO.

.

check your stats

when Bush left office unemployment was closer to 8%
and the country was in a free-fall economic collapse
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Old 01-03-2011, 03:02 PM   #65
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You're pretty tone deaf if you truly believe he doesn't have any. His religion doesn't sit well with some "real" christian types. Romney care is going to be a big hurdle as well...

things change, McCain was rejected by the party in 2000 and got the nom pretty easy in 2008

Romney came in pretty strong in 2008, also like Nixon did after losing in 1960 he has done a lot of work shoring up support in the party, that worked well for Nixon in 1968.

Also Reagan ran in 1976, lost to Ford and shored up support for a successful 1980. I am not saying Romney will get the nom for sure, I am just sayong he has a good shot. Much better than he did in 2008 and he did better than many expected then.
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Old 01-03-2011, 03:38 PM   #66
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Mitt Romney was 2nd to John McCain in the primaries and McCain had a tough fight to win over Romney.
2008 Delegate count
McCain 1,575
Huckabee 278
Romney 271

Actually Mitt was 3rd and McCain crushed them both.
Romney was beaten into submission (ran out of $$$) or else he would have finished 2nd. Huckabee conserved his money and was able to pick up enough delegates to actually be the runner-up.

But in the spirit of moment, I think it is probably appropriate to say that Romney, if not the actual runner-up, was the runner-up in spirit. But with that said, I don't think "tough fight" is accurate. Romney underperformed, period.

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Palin has major hurdles that she won't be able to cross. Romney really does not have any, and being from outside Washington DC is going to be a plus in 2012.
Couldn't disagree more. I think MA healthcare will sink him.
But absolutely agree that being from outside of DC will help.
If Romney can weasel his way out of the HC issue, he should be very formidable.
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Old 01-03-2011, 05:25 PM   #67
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What makes you so sure? For Palin and Newt you're probably right, but Romney? Seems like a smart, successful businessman former governor moderate Republican in the midst of 9-something unemployment would do well. How can you say that with a number of polls showing him beating Obama?
I've seen one poll taken a couple weeks ago that shows Romney beating Obama. I've seen a half dozen taken in the last few months that show Obama beating Romney. But it's really not about that.

Romney just isn't a great campaigner. People don't like him very much. Obama is the opposite. People really like him. The more he speaks, the more they like him. Remember, the bulk of the electorate is made up of people who don't watch cable news, who don't live and breathe politics the way you and I do. They don't start paying attention until the campaigns heat up. When Obama gets that campaign engine started, and the speeches begin and the ground game is organized, he's going to be pretty tough to beat.

That's why I think the only person who CAN beat him is someone just like him. Someone new. A fresh face who can match his energy.

Further, Obama's approval ratings have been hovering just below 50% since August of 2009. Considering the unemployment rate, those numbers are nothing short of astonishing. Higher than Reagan, higher than Clinton.

You give his campaign an improving economy to sell—set against a republican party with far lower approval ratings than Obama—and it's hard to see how the President doesn't get reelected.
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Old 01-03-2011, 05:42 PM   #68
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Oh it will matter before September/October 2012. Starting in November 2011, Republicans will starting asking the question, Are you better off than you were four years ago? When you compare a 9.5% unemployment rate to one that was just 4.8% four years earlier, most people are going to answer that question with a big NO.
I think you're underestimating the American electorate. Only the extraordinarily naive (OK, Fox News viewers) blame Obama for the unemployment.

Here's a visual. Guess where Obama came in?

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Old 01-03-2011, 05:46 PM   #69
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I think he's part of that electorate, hence the naivety.
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Old 01-03-2011, 08:23 PM   #70
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I've seen one poll taken a couple weeks ago that shows Romney beating Obama. I've seen a half dozen taken in the last few months that show Obama beating Romney. But it's really not about that.

Romney just isn't a great campaigner. People don't like him very much. Obama is the opposite. People really like him. The more he speaks, the more they like him. Remember, the bulk of the electorate is made up of people who don't watch cable news, who don't live and breathe politics the way you and I do. They don't start paying attention until the campaigns heat up. When Obama gets that campaign engine started, and the speeches begin and the ground game is organized, he's going to be pretty tough to beat.

That's why I think the only person who CAN beat him is someone just like him. Someone new. A fresh face who can match his energy.

Further, Obama's approval ratings have been hovering just below 50% since August of 2009. Considering the unemployment rate, those numbers are nothing short of astonishing. Higher than Reagan, higher than Clinton.

You give his campaign an improving economy to sell—set against a republican party with far lower approval ratings than Obama—and it's hard to see how the President doesn't get reelected.
I agree with this, cautiously. I guess I'm always a bit doubtful. I wasn't ready to believe Obama would really win in 2008 until the polls closed on Election Night.

I wonder how much of our prognistication is more about what we want to be true and less about what actually is true. Not a lot of conservative posters suggesting Obama can win, not a lot of liberal posters suggesting Obama could lose (though this group is somewhat more open to that possiblity). Conicidence? I think not.
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Old 01-04-2011, 10:27 AM   #71
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I wonder how much of our prognistication is more about what we want to be true and less about what actually is true. Not a lot of conservative posters suggesting Obama can win, not a lot of liberal posters suggesting Obama could lose (though this group is somewhat more open to that possiblity). Conicidence? I think not.


though Mitch McConnell did say that the #1 priority of the GOP was to defeat Obama in 2012 (as opposed to, say, making the country better), are there many right wing pundits or politicians (beyond Rush, Hannity, Beck, etc.) who are highly confident that Obama will lose?

i'm genuinely curious.
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Old 01-04-2011, 10:56 AM   #72
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you should ask yourself why Obama's approval ratings are actually very strong, and steady (especially compared with Reagan and Clinton at this point in their first terms) when considering a 9.8% unemployment rate.
Obama does have a grace period, but its not going to last forever. His approval ratings have been as low as 41% over the past few months which is not good regardless of the situation or comparisons to past Presidents. Obama's monthly average on approval will continue to decline the longer the unemployment rate remains so high.

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you also need to look at the fact that when Obama took office the economy was shedding jobs, now it is adding jobs. the economy is fundamentally better now than it was at the end of 2008. it's not a comparison of 2000 vs. 2012, or 2004 vs. 2012. yes, the unemployment rate is much higher than it was under Bush, but Bush's continued abysmal approval ratings (and the fact that no Republican will go near him) demonstrates that most voters actually do place blame for the unemployment rate with him rather than with Obama.
In February of 2008, Bush's last year in office, the unemployment rate was only 4.8%. Its true that in Bush's last 6 months in office the unemployment rate suddenly and steadily climbed. When Obama came in, in January, unemployment was about 7.5%. But after Obama was in, it climbed as high as 10.1%, is currently at 9.8% and is not really moving much.

Its not enough that jobs are being added. You have to add jobs every month just to keep up with new people entering the work force. Its not enough to have some GDP growth and some job growth. Voters won't feel that.

What voters do feel is the most difficult job market since the 1930s. A jobs situation that worsened for months after Obama entered office and has not noticably improved for the voters. Obama still has time to try and change the situation, but time is running out. Obama cannot run against George Bush in 2012. He can't really run against Republicans in 2012 since they only control the house. He is going to be on the defensive and will have to explain to voters why he deserves another term. Sustained unemployment rates above 9% are not going to increase voter appreciation. People are going to start to look elsewhere when the campaign starts if the situation continues.

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now, whether or not Obama has done enough to fix it is the question, not whether or not he is the cause of the 9.8% unemployment.
Well, not all voters look at it that way. Many will remember what life was like four years ago and simply conclude that Obama has done a poor job. The fact is, whether he is at fault or not, the overwhelming majority of the high monthly unemployment rates have happened under Obama. If that persist, that is what people will remember and think about on election day. No one is going to remember that the economy started to deteriate in the last 6 months when Bush was President. They are going to be focused on four years of unemployment above 8% or 9% under Obama, consistantly, month after month, which is something the country has not seen since the 1930s.

Even people that generally like Obama will be attracted to someone new, something different, in order to bring about some sort of change in the jobs situation.

Bottom line, there has to be significant improvement in the jobs situation for voters in order for Obama to have a decent chance at re-election. The next 8 months is very important.
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Old 01-04-2011, 11:00 AM   #73
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Charlie Crist is an independent.

and gay.
Well, he can quickly switch back to being a Republican. He is also married to a women. Even if he is gay in the closet, as long as he survives the primary, the general election would not be a problem.
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Old 01-04-2011, 11:03 AM   #74
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No, they weren't really that vocal about it until after the fact... pretty convenient for them don't you think?



You haven't been paying attention.
There was massive opposition to John McCain in the Republican party. In fact Democrats would often bring that up with glee because they feared running against McCain the most. Had the economy not collapsed at the end of 2008, McCain would likely have won.

I don't know of any Republicans that have refered to Patreus as a "Traitor". Can you tell us which Republicans in congress think General Patreus is a "traitor"?
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Old 01-04-2011, 11:05 AM   #75
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You're pretty tone deaf if you truly believe he doesn't have any. His religion doesn't sit well with some "real" christian types. Romney care is going to be a big hurdle as well...
The hurdle that no one wants to have is Obama's. Its 9.8% unemployment. As long as you can't be tied to that, your in a good position.
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