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Old 06-01-2011, 02:27 PM   #496
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Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Romney leads in Iowa, Cain surging

Mitt Romney has the lead in PPP's first Iowa poll since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump exited the race, but with six different candidates polling in double digits it's clear this thing is wide open.

Romney polls at 21%. Sarah Palin and Herman Cain are tied for second at 15%. Newt Gingrich is 4th with 12%, Michele Bachmann 5th with 11%, Tim Pawlenty 6th with 10%, Ron Paul 7th with 8%, and Jon Huntsman 8th with 0% (only one respondent to the poll picked him.) 8% said they supported someone else or were undecided.

Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump's decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin's gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.

Romney's leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he's at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With 'somewhat conservative' voters he's at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those 'very conservative' folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.

There's been a lot of speculation that the Republican race could eventually come down to Romney and a single more conservative alternative. Although this will likely not be the case when the voting in Iowa happens we tested several head to head match ups between Romney and other GOP contenders to see how they would come out. Pawlenty may actually be the strongest contender to become the 'anti-Romney' as he ties him at 41%. Otherwise Romney leads- 48-41 over Palin, 46-38 over Bachmann, and 48-34 over Cain.

Pawlenty doesn't poll the strongest head to head among Romney among 'very conservative' voters- he leads by 17 compared to a 21 point lead for Palin and a 24 point advantage for Bachmann with that group. But with center right voters- those calling themselves 'somewhat conservative'- Romney leads Pawlenty by just a single point while he has a 19 point advantage over Palin and a 22 point lead over Bachmann with that group. What that says to me is that many Republicans are looking for someone more conservative than Romney but someone who isn't bound to get creamed in the general election the way Palin, Bachmann, and Cain probably would. That's very good news for Pawlenty if it ever plays itself out in real life.

Public Policy Polling: Romney leads in Iowa, Cain surging
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:43 PM   #497
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Unless Christie or Perry get in and mix things up, I am actually going to predict it's Michelle Bachman. Yeah, I know...but who among them doesn't have 1) downsides and 2) haven't said crazy things? They've got to pick someone.

I can see it coming down to Romney and Bachman.
And the sludge machine will get behind Bachman. And Romney is pretty ripe for attacks.
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:54 PM   #498
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My prediction.

No one wins the nomination on the first ballot, throwing the convention open, which leads to to Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie eventually being drafted for the ticket.
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Old 06-01-2011, 06:02 PM   #499
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Romney wins the nomination. Palin gets the nomination for a third party. Obama wins every state but Utah.

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Old 06-01-2011, 06:05 PM   #500
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I think Paul Ryan would be a total debacle because of the politics of the Medicare thing.
I'm talking Mondale/Dukakis-like ass kicking.

Sure, they all have downsides. Certainly even Obama. I think you have to look at the things that can be easily used to beat them up over and over again. That would be an easy argument for the Dems to make politically - even with conservative old folks.
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Old 06-01-2011, 06:08 PM   #501
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And Palin...that's why I'm leaning towards Bachman (as a predicition).
I think Palin is trying to buy political capital with her little tour.
I think she wants to play 'King-maker'.
Don't fall over in your chair is she endorses Bachman at some point.

Or maybe they could just mud-wrestle and film it.
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Old 06-01-2011, 09:52 PM   #502
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My prediction.

No one wins the nomination on the first ballot, throwing the convention open, which leads to to Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie eventually being drafted for the ticket.
sounds a little like wishful thinking to me.

Romney is in much better shape now than McCain was in 2007.
There were a lot of GOP in 2008 that had no enthusiasm for McCain

also, there were a lot of Dems in 2008 that did not want Obama,
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Old 06-01-2011, 09:56 PM   #503
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Palin's strategy may be to gin up support, not run in 2012, go out and campaign for House and Senate candidates, like she did in 2010.
Many of her candidates will win, she will have a legitimate claim to the 2016 nomination.
2016 will be an easier road for who ever the GOP nominee is.
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Old 06-02-2011, 12:06 AM   #504
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Paul Ryan will be nowhere near anything related to 2012 due to him being PR poison at the moment in Washington. Republicans rely on older voters (due to many of them being scared of things), and Ryan just told them that their monthly gov't cheques need to be cut down.
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Old 06-02-2011, 07:51 AM   #505
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Between Romney and Pawlenty lies the Huckabump:

Huckabee says he could change mind on presidential bid�|�Arkansas News
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Old 06-02-2011, 08:53 AM   #506
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YouTube - ‪Someone put an "I, The Media Whore" Sign on Sarah Palin's Bus Outside of FOX Studios in NYC‬‏
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Old 06-02-2011, 08:59 AM   #507
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Some people would like to see him run. Way to tighten that belt governor-fiscal responsibility.

Gov. Christie's helicopter rides raise ire of Democratic lawmaker | NJ.com
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Old 06-02-2011, 09:07 AM   #508
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Gee Sarah-that must just be a coinkydink


Sarah Palin pulls in to Boston

GOP miffed on Mitt’s big day

By Hillary Chabot | Thursday, June 2, 2011 | Home - BostonHerald.com



GOP megastar Sarah Palin’s bus tour rumbled into the Hub last night, driving straight into a Republican Party furor as her headline-grabbing East Coast trip threatened to overshadow today’s presidential announcement by party front-runner Mitt Romney.

“She will certainly be in New Hampshire to rain on Mitt’s parade,” wrote Massachusetts GOP spokesman Tim Buckley in an e-mail obtained by the Herald. Bay State GOP officials confirmed yesterday that Buckley wrote the e-mail, but said it was a private exchange and not an official communication.

“I guess she blew in with the storm,” sniffed state House minority leader Bradley H. Jones (R-North Reading) yesterday, a longtime Romney supporter. “She may generate a lot of attention, but given the choice between seeing Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, I’d much rather see Romney.”

But Palin fans, who breathlessly tracked her One Nation bus from New York to Boston’s Long Wharf Marriott yesterday via Twitter, gloated that Romney’s noon 2012 presidential announcement in Stratham, N.H., is doomed to obscurity.

“Mitt Romney will be talking to himself,” said Judson Phillips, leader of Tea Party Nation. “It’s stupid for him to announce in the middle of her tour. He’ll just get buried in the noise. He’ll be an afterthought.”

Romney is expected to return to the Bay State for a big-bucks fund-raiser at the Four Seasons tonight hosted by former Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker. Neither Romney nor Palin’s spokespeople returned requests for comment.



By Michael Levenson, Globe Staff

Sarah Palin emerged today from the Marriott Long Wharf hotel and said she planned to walk the Freedom Trail before heading to New Hampshire – where Mitt Romney is to announce his presidential candidacy today.

“Coincidental that we’re in the same territory at the same time,’’ said Palin , a likely Republican presidential candidate. “But more power to Mitt…and best of luck to him.’’
Palin said she remains undecided on whether she will challenge Romney and other candidates for the Republican presidential nomination.

“Haven’t decided yet,’’ she said. “Looking at the field, and knowing that there is going to be a lot of shakeup in that lineup.’’

Palin said that when she was in New York City last night she did speak with Roger Ailes, chairman of the Fox television network, but she refused to provide details of that conversation.

During her tour of the Freedom Trail, Palin said she plans to hand out copies of the US Constitution, and that she was hopeful to run into schoolchildren on field trips.

“Hopefully, we will see kids on field trips again, and we will get them to read those Constitutions and really absorb what’s in there.’’

As she left the hotel, Palin’s entourage piled into two SUVs that are beign followed by a gaggle of reporters. There is no obvious sign of Boston police or other law enforcement presence around here.
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Old 06-02-2011, 09:14 AM   #509
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Are the GOP candidates and potentials just one big circle with knives in each others' backs?

Can't wait to see who rises above.

I smell a conservative 3rd-party candidate making a showing.
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Old 06-02-2011, 09:54 AM   #510
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So now he joins Trump and Palin on the media whore train. Nothing says love for the country like playing with the voters.
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