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Old 05-25-2011, 05:04 PM   #466
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we'll see.
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Old 05-25-2011, 05:06 PM   #467
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well, I am going on record

I am right more often than wrong ( by my unbiased accounting)
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Old 05-25-2011, 05:08 PM   #468
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you thought Obama was going to lose, right?
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Old 05-25-2011, 05:50 PM   #469
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In November 2008?? no way
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Old 05-25-2011, 06:06 PM   #470
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In November 2008?? no way

in May 2007.
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Old 05-25-2011, 06:12 PM   #471
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In May of 2007 I would have thought the Dem candidate would have the advantage over the GOP candidate in the Nov 2008 election
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Old 05-26-2011, 01:45 PM   #472
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DCCC Chair Steve Israel: Medicare Has Put House Back In Play
Benjy Sarlin | May 26, 2011, 12:38PM

How big is the Medicare issue for Democrats in 2012? Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told reporters on Thursday that the House is already back in play thanks to the GOP's budget.

"I did not expect to be able to tell you the House was in play as early as May, but today I can tell you that I fundamentally believe the House of Representatives is in play and that the Democrats can win a majority," he said at a press conference with his Senate counterpart, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Patty Murray (D-WA).

Israel pointed to the recent NY-26 election as evidence of the trend and said the early victory was crucial to the DCCC's recruiting efforts. He said that they had called their top 50 prospective recruits immediately after Democrat Kathy Hochul's victory.

Israel cautioned that it was early in the political process to draw conclusions.

"Victory in NY-26 is not going to make us cocky. We're going to continue to be clear eyed and strategic and tactical," he said, adding that the win "will inform our strategy, it will not be our strategy." But he confirmed the obvious, that NY-26's Medicare-heavy message was a "sneak preview" of Democratic campaigns around the country heading into the 2012 election.

In another dig at the GOP over their Medicare proposal, he suggested that contesting House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's own district would be a top priority for the DCCC. Ryan already has drawn a Democratic challenger in Rob Zerban, a businessman who told TPM this week his campaign would build on NY-26's Medicare strategy, and Israel repeatedly cited him as a credible threat.

"We have an outstanding candidate," Israel said of Zerban. "He chose to get in based on the fact that his member of Congress was leading the charge to end Medicare in order to fund tax cuts for big oil companies."

DCCC Chair Steve Israel: Medicare Has Put House Back In Play | TPMDC


a bit optimistic, but don't underestimate what this and an improving economy could do.
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Old 05-26-2011, 01:58 PM   #473
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economy is key. If it improves, there is no chance Obama loses, and the Dems may get a few seats back, or even the majority as the republicans haven't offered anything except the Ryan plan which has proven so far to be a disaster.

You have to give Ryan some credit though, he did put a plan out there, even if it's shit, he has tried. I'm not so sure what the Dems have done besides Obama's plan from back in Feb which was shut out in a house vote.
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Old 05-26-2011, 02:43 PM   #474
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There still is the immigration issue to address before the 2012 elections.

Short of proposing amnesty, free abortions/healthcare, free college tuition and social security eligibility at age 55 for illegals, I don't know how Dems don't win votes on immigration.
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Old 05-26-2011, 03:24 PM   #475
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I have little faith that any party will actually do what's necessary to get these issues resolved. The whole problem is we're so divided as a country, or the extreme on each side are the most vocal.....that the middle ground is lost because our politicans have to pander to the extreme.

The only way we get out of this mess is to raise taxes (and I'm for across the board, not just the super rich, though they should be taxed higher and there's a history of that in our country), fixes to medicare, welfare, and the healthcare industry. But we're so accustomed to having low taxes that the threat of raising them pretty much means a politician is done.

Same thing with immigration. With the growing hispanic population, coming down harder on those laws or passing new ones risks voter turn out in that demographic.

It's all just one big loop that I don't see ending in a good way.
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Old 05-26-2011, 03:36 PM   #476
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I have little faith that any party will actually do what's necessary to get these issues resolved. The whole problem is we're so divided as a country, or the extreme on each side are the most vocal.....that the middle ground is lost because our politicans have to pander to the extreme.


i think this is only true on the right. the Left are largely ignored by the Democrats, who spend most of their time groveling to the Middle. there are certain things a politician can do to gain ground with the Democratic base, and i think Cuomo's push for Marriage Equality in NY is largely an attempt to win him liberal street cred for the 2016 primaries. but given the fact that majorities in the country now support equal rights, it's really not all that Left. i guess you could see fidelity/pandering to Labor Unions, but i fail to see how that is anything other than center Left, and it certainly doesn't compare to the rhetoric we're going to hear from the Right as the GOP contest heats up.
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Old 05-26-2011, 05:55 PM   #477
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You have to give Ryan some credit though, he did put a plan out there, even if it's shit, he has tried. I'm not so sure what the Dems have done besides Obama's plan from back in Feb which was shut out in a house vote.
Party of 'no ideas' vs the party of bad ideas.
While oversimplified, it generally remains true.
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Old 05-26-2011, 08:42 PM   #478
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i think this is only true on the right. the Left are largely ignored by the Democrats, who spend most of their time groveling to the Middle. there are certain things a politician can do to gain ground with the Democratic base, and i think Cuomo's push for Marriage Equality in NY is largely an attempt to win him liberal street cred for the 2016 primaries. but given the fact that majorities in the country now support equal rights, it's really not all that Left. i guess you could see fidelity/pandering to Labor Unions, but i fail to see how that is anything other than center Left, and it certainly doesn't compare to the rhetoric we're going to hear from the Right as the GOP contest heats up.
Yeah, as an outsider looking at this from Australia/New Zealand, I've often wondered where the left in the US has even got to. The right are ridiculously vocal, the centre is obviously there, but the left? I'll be honest and say that I perceive most political debates in the US as centre-right vs extreme right.
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Old 05-27-2011, 08:45 AM   #479
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Yeah, as an outsider looking at this from Australia/New Zealand, I've often wondered where the left in the US has even got to. The right are ridiculously vocal, the centre is obviously there, but the left? I'll be honest and say that I perceive most political debates in the US as centre-right vs extreme right.
The 2000s have seen a sizable shift of U.S. politics to the right, though you could argue it began in the 1980s with Regan and his very effective rhetoric against the lower classes and the left, and his support of the excess of the financial sector and banking class.

Clinton's time in office was largely a stopgap, and even then the Republicans controlled the legislature. The 90s were relatively a big party in the U.S...a simpler time where we worried about O.J. Simpson's fate and Brittney Spears.

The interesting (and scary) thing is that after enough examination of Washington, these days it seems like it is neither the GOP nor the Democrats who will be the salvation of those who enjoy the telecoms not sorting through their mobile calls or email. Washington after 9/11 is an oppressive, security-minded, militaristic culture, whether you lean left or right on social issues.
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Old 05-27-2011, 09:33 AM   #480
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I think the distorted view of U.S. politics is almost entirely due to corporate media and media consolidation. --A different thread to be sure.

We have absolutely surrendered to corporations and the dollar in the U.S. in regard to politics with no correction in sight.
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