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Old 12-30-2010, 11:09 PM   #16
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If you had asked me a year ago I would have said Sarah Palin but as it stands right now this does not seem to be transpiring (although I wouldn't count her out in 2016) - her poll numbers keep going down and it seems like the powers that be within the Republican party do not want her to run. Given this scenerio (that Palin doesn't run) who do you think will be the nominee?

The way I see it the nominee has to be someone who can bridge the gap between the country club Republicans and the Social Conservative wing (not to mention the Tea Party wing). Remember, I did predict that Sarah Palin would be McCain's Vice-Presidential pick back in 2008 and was almost laughed off Interference because of it. My top three picks for the Republican nominee of 2012 are...

1. Mike Huckabee

2. John Thune

3. Mike Pence

As of this moment it looks like Huckabee has all the momentum but remember that the race hasn't even started yet. Thune and Pence may be considered unknown "Dark Horses" now but we'll see how this pans out by the end of 2011. The nominee will not be Romney or Gingritch - Romney's too middle of the road for most of the party plus he's MORMON which, let's face it people, is a no no to most of the "Christian" wing of the party. Gingritch is, well Gingritch...nuff said. Let's hear everyone else's picks...
It's funny, you assume I'm a conservative. If you only knew the truth.
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Old 12-30-2010, 11:25 PM   #17
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Old 12-31-2010, 02:57 PM   #18
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I don't see how Crist could be a serious contender given that he ran as an independent in FL. I don't see Colin Powell returning to public life. I can't see Gates running, having just worked for the current administration.

I don't know that Romney can really motivate people. He doesn't strike me as someone that will get everyone excited. Huckabee might be the best of the possible candidates mentioned since he can appeal to the religious and tea party elements of the party without coming across as a complete nut to the rest of the party.

None of them seem likely to beat Obama at this point. I think the Republicans would do well with someone like Jeb Bush, but I haven't heard that he's considering running.
Well, with the unemployment rate stuck at 9.8% and the unofficial kick off of the 2012 race starting in September 2011, at this point just about anyone has a chance of getting in the race and doing well.

Its highly unlikely that a President can win re-election with 9.8% unemployment. Its also not just a recent spike. The unemployment rate has been above 9.4% for nearly two years now, the longest in the nations history since the 1930s.

If there is not a sustained and significant improvement in the unemployment situation, the only thing people will be talking about is who will win the Republican nomination.

In Bush's last year in office, the unemployment rate one month was as low as 4.8%. Having an unemployment rate consistently above 9% for 20+ months is light years from that.

People won't reward the worst unemployment rates in their lifetimes. If there is not significant change and soon, Obama's re-election chances will start to crumble.
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Old 12-31-2010, 03:02 PM   #19
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That would be quite an accomplishment. I'm skeptical that he could do it.
Obama needs all the help he can get given the hole he is in with the jobs situation. A bloomburg run would just dig the hole deeper. Obama needs a situation where the Republican vote would be split. That may be the only way he can stay in office if the unemployment situation does not improve.
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Old 12-31-2010, 03:55 PM   #20
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If there is not a sustained and significant improvement in the unemployment situation, the only thing people will be talking about is who will win the Republican nomination.
Noooo problemo! John Boehner will get everyone JOBS like he promised during the election.
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Old 12-31-2010, 04:32 PM   #21
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Noooo problemo! John Boehner will get everyone JOBS like he promised during the election.
It does help Obama that the Republicans now have control of the house in terms of the distribution of blame. But Obama is still President and his party has the Senate. Most people are going to take their frustrations out on the President in 2012 if things don't start to change soon.

Also, even if the economy starts to improve at a rate favorable to Obama, there is the threat of record gas prices according to some industry experts, $5 dollar gasoline possible in the USA, just before the election if the global economy starts to rapidly improve.
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Old 12-31-2010, 07:03 PM   #22
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I like Senator Jim Demit of South Carolina.

He's one of the only Republicans I know of that
is close to Libertarian principles of government.

The last time I heard him speak, he said he was not
running for President.

I guess that could change.

This will an interesting race to watch.
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Old 12-31-2010, 08:22 PM   #23
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It does help Obama that the Republicans now have control of the house in terms of the distribution of blame. But Obama is still President and his party has the Senate. Most people are going to take their frustrations out on the President in 2012 if things don't start to change soon.

Also, even if the economy starts to improve at a rate favorable to Obama, there is the threat of record gas prices according to some industry experts, $5 dollar gasoline possible in the USA, just before the election if the global economy starts to rapidly improve.
Eh. . .maybe.

If this is really how the American electorate is going to approach the election (and I'm afraid you are right), it demonstrates a really shallow approach to the nations problems.
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Old 01-01-2011, 07:25 AM   #24
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I think the top 3 potential nominees are:

1. Jeb Bush (If he wants to. He has the best chance to beat Obama. Would draw independents, too.)
2. Rick Perry (What's not to like about him if you are a Republican?)
3. Mitt Romney (He's got the name recognition and some momentum, and I think a number independents like him.)

No way Palin gets the nomination (fortunately or unfortunately depending on your stance).
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Old 01-01-2011, 10:11 AM   #25
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A month or two ago I saw polls showing that Romney was ahead in two out of the three states of IA, NH and SC. After that comes MI I believe, where I have to believe he would win with his family ties. If those polls hold for the next year, he'd be in business at that point.

I don't believe a number of people being talked about will end up running. At this point I think Romney and Gingrich are sure things. But right now I'm of the opinion Palin won't, Bush won't, Jindal won't, Perry won't, Demint won't, and the last I heard from Huckabee is that he is leaning slightly against running at this point. I also don't see Pawlenty getting much traction. I like him and he's a smart guy, but unfortunately nowadays you need charisma, and he's somewhat lacking there. Christie will be interesting to watch. There might be a big push in the GOP to persuade him to run. I think he, and only he, could really challenge Romney for it. I could be wrong.
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Old 01-01-2011, 12:36 PM   #26
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the GOP is usually about who's "turn" it is, or who's "earned" it.

though Palin could make some people uncomfortable, she'll have to battle Huck for the insane vote, and the GOP did go for McCain in 2008 thinking that he was actually electable because of his history of being a moderate. (how you like Grandpa Walnuts now?)

for 2012, unless a dark horse distinguishes himself -- unlikely in GOP history, this is a party that listens and obeys orders from the top -- it's Romney.

looking forward to more Mittens!
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Old 01-01-2011, 12:40 PM   #27
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Christie will be interesting to watch. There might be a big push in the GOP to persuade him to run. I think he, and only he, could really challenge Romney for it. I could be wrong.

on paper, i agree with you. his "no, you can't build the tunnel, i don't have the money" attitude does speak to people who are freaked out about deficits in both parties, but after watching him on 60 Minutes, i think he might be a bit too ... "regional." he comes across a bit of of Central Casting as Jersey stereotypes go, something of a Sopranos character. for me, that's fine -- but i can't see him playing in the South, and the GOP continues to Dixie-fy.
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Old 01-01-2011, 01:02 PM   #28
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I like Senator Jim Demit of South Carolina.
Ah yes, Jim Demint of the "gays and lesbians should not be permitted to teach in our schools" fame.
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Old 01-01-2011, 02:24 PM   #29
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the GOP is usually about who's "turn" it is, or who's "earned" it.
that is mostly true. Especially in 80, 88, and 96.
But I don't know how that theory holds up for 2000.
W certainly had not earned it.

I know it was not you. But anyone that mentioned Bloomberg, he has absolutely zero shot as the GOP nom. Giuliani could not get any traction and he had 911 at his back.

The GOP base has no use for Jews, that is American Jews.
Jews in Israel?, that is a good thing - for the second coming of Jesus.
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Old 01-01-2011, 08:01 PM   #30
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Given the state of the US economy (and I think the smart Republicans would know it isn't Obama's doing, not even Bush's, really), why anyone would want to seize the office of President is beyond me. It's not that highly paid. What are they going to promise, free icecream for everyone?
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