GOP Nominee 2012 - who will it be?

[corianderstem]

I would imagine that if Palin were actually going to be elected, there would be at least one person (probably a whole team of people who actually have, you know, experience) running the show and pulling her strings.

Not that it would make us any less fucked, but I don't think she'd actually be in charge of anything. .... right?

But no. She wouldn't win.

 

[deep]

she did win two elections in the BIGGEST state in all of the United States of America. :wavingflag:

 

[Earnie Shavers]

And that person pulling the strings might be someone like John Bolton. My point stands!

I think your main, over-riding problem would be that no one - absolutely no one - would take her/the US seriously, regardless of who is behind her. But yeah, there's no chance she could actually win. I'd be amazed if she lasted a while in the primaries.

 

[corianderstem]

Oh, do people still take us seriously now?

 

[Earnie Shavers]

Approx half of your country, yes.

 

[corianderstem]

Ha.

 

[deep]

all I know
is she will not sell out Israel, like some other non-Christian (who can remain nameless, peace be upon him).

 

[bono_212]

do you think he'll run?

We'd all be more fucked than you can possibly imagine.

I've lived in this state under that man as governor for 8 years, and I have watched as our school systems have fallen to pieces, as he's leased our toll road out to other countries and pocketed the money for Indianapolis, instead of putting it where it belongs. He is a liar, and I have never felt so much disdain for another human being in all of my life.

 

[BEAL]

If she runs it's a joke of a process. Yes the Daily Show and Colbert Report will have endless material to keep their shows going for a long time, but ultimately people like Sarah provide nothing, not even a learning lesson to the country of maybe striving to make something of yourself (and even in her case to go from a Journalism degree in however many years to being Gov of a state could have been a cool story) except she's an idiot, and a highly successful one at that.

She's going to pull the same crap as Trump. She'll keep throwing hints out there, but there's no way she can stand up to the press or even handle herself in a debate (the vp debate was one of the saddest displays i've ever seen....a shout out to a highschool???)

The GOP has no one to match Obama and they know it, so they're going to throw all the crazies out now before 2016 comes around.

 

[Irvine511]

You'll be the laughing stock of the planet, and it will only go downhill from there.

Obama crushes her in head-to-head match ups. it would be a 1984 or 1972 style blowout.

i used to think that we could do no worse than Bush, but now we know that we can.

 

[Earnie Shavers]

In large part it's going to be about what's best for Brand Palin, and I'm not sure if Brand Palin is better off running and failing, or not running at all.

Edit: Surely running and failing is better. She can at least then still just bang on about those scared and out of touch elitist bully boys or whatever. Play the victim.

 

[BVS]

IF she runs it will be in the VP slot again, I think even she knows she doesn't have the numbers to be the GOP primary winner.

 

[Irvine511]

In large part it's going to be about what's best for Brand Palin, and I'm not sure if Brand Palin is better off running and failing, or not running at all.

right now, Brand Palin is predicated upon the "will she or won't she?" question, and the longer that goes unanswered, the more books she can sell and the more she can show up on Fox for "interviews" (no gotcha questions where they keep "repeatin' her words back to her verbatim.")

my totally uninformed guess would be that she would want to pull a Hillary '08-style campaign. now that Huckabee is out, the social conservatives are up for grabs, and if she can present her entry into the race as being more of a "draft" because the male frontrunner (Romney, Daniles) isn't speaking to social conservatives and telling small town folk that they're the only "real Americans" and thusly God's chosen people, she'll rally those folks and become a cult-like leader, similar to Hillary and the PUMA's from '08. she won't want to actually win, dear God, because she quite clearly has spent the last 3 years increasing her celebrity headspace and not informing herself on the issues, but she wants to ascend to be some kind of Mother of Red State America deity where she can raise the issues she wants to raise, where she can play kingmaker, and where she can plausibly have the ear of a potential Republican administration as the spokesperson for the GOP base.

i don't think she'd want the VP, nor do i think she'd want a job that requires actual work, like SecState. she wants to be a kind of cultural leader, and that would require a strong primary showing where she doesn't win but wins enough hearts and minds that she herself becomes a political-cultural force to be reckoned with.

i think she may have jumped the shark in January with her ghastly response to the Gabby Giffords shooting -- where she decided that she was the greatest victim of that massacre -- made herself totally unelectable in a general election. but now that the race is heating up, there may still be life in the old girl.

 

[Earnie Shavers]

Could Huckabee be a VP? He's not running for several reasons, but some of them are void if it's a matter of only 'checking in' once the real slog (and cost) of a primary campaign are over. It's only a few months, not a year. So only a few months away from Fox or whoever else is paying him, and they'll be there afterwards if they lose. And if they win? He's VP. Most people would give up a dicky show on Fox for that job.

He'll surely get asked. He's got the conservative wing, without all the negativity that comes with Palin. (And BVS, I can't see anyone lining her up for that spot again. That would be pure madness on their part, no matter how much they need her base.)

 

[Irvine511]

Could Huckabee be a VP? He's not running for several reasons, but some of them are void if it's a matter of only 'checking in' once the real slog (and cost) of a primary campaign are over. It's only a few months, not a year. So only a few months away from Fox or whoever else is paying him, and they'll be there afterwards. And if he wins? He's VP. He'll surely get asked. He's got the conservative wing, without all the negativity that comes with Palin. (And BVS, I can't see anyone lining her up for that spot again. That would be pure madness on their part, no matter how much they need her base.)

my guess is no, because he ran for the top job in 2008. but i could be wrong. and i really don't think that he actually wants to be president.

also, it's interesting to note that while Huck and Sarah both speak to the base, they do so in different ways. Huck is pretty much a purebred white evangelical, and while Sarah does have the Christian thing working for her, so much of her appeal is tied up in her whole Caribou Barbie schtick. she's more of a celebrity in the sense that people like to see her as a more idealized version of themselves, whereas no one wants to actually be Huckabee, you know? she's got the looks, the kids, the faux-earthiness, the can-do/you-betcha perkiness, and a mean streak where she seeks vengeance upon those who've done her wrong that plays perfectly into her politics of cultural resentment at these imaginary "elites" (even if she shops at Neimen Marcus just like they do )

 

[BVS]

(And BVS, I can't see anyone lining her up for that spot again. That would be pure madness on their part, no matter how much they need her base.)

I think you're right. Personally I don't see her running, she wouldn't be able to survive the "she quit and became a reality star" fact. I don't even think the Tea Party are willing to overlook that.

Pawlenty is the only one that seems to have a shot in the list so far, Newt and Paul are dead on arrival. Romney seems to be hesitant, is there something else besides his healthcare issue that's holding him back?

So the question is how smart politically is Pawlenty? Is he smart enough to realize Palin will bring him down?

We'll see...

 

[kramwest1]

so they're going to throw all the crazies out now before 2016 comes around.

There ain't enough time between now and 2016 to throw all the crazies out.

 

[kramwest1]

So the question is how smart politically is Pawlenty? Is he smart enough to realize Palin will bring him down?

We'll see...

Pawlenty embodies the "born on 3rd base, thought he hit a triple" mentality.
He got about 44 percent of the vote for Gov. in 2002 and 47 percent in 2006 as the incumbent. But, he ran the State like he had a mandate. No compromises.
He stuck to his "won't raise taxes" pledge like a total weasel, instead letting property taxes skyrocket because he choked State local-aid-funding to cities.

So, he's savvy and committed, but still a little weasel. He turns on his folksy charm, but I think most people see through it.

And everyone should remember, one of his few solo leadership decisions was to fold the head of our DOT into the Lt. Gov.'s role. Now that didn't directly lead to the 35W bridge collapse, but it did nothing to stop it either and meant lots of second-guessing and finger-pointing afterward.

The main problem Pawlenty has is fundraising. He has very little base, very little appeal and very little personality (especially compared to the rest), and therefore he is a question mark for any big contributors compared to the rest of the field.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that the 2012 GOP nominee will be either the number 1 or number 2 fundraisers.

If Pawlenty doesn't win Iowa, he's done.

 

[deep]

you do realize you pretty much described W to a t.

 

[kramwest1]

you do realize you pretty much described W to a t.

Is that who my Gov. was for 8 years?



(W had the fundraising buddies though.)

 

[Irvine511]

um, yeah ... W Junior had the entire GOP establishment behind him by 1998 or so, and his father had been president, and he was the popular governor of the third (?) most populated state in the country.

 

[U2DMfan]

W also had plenty of appeal and personality (as seen within his party).

The better analogue for Pawlenty might be Lieberman.
In terms of just being boring.

Gore was VP in a successful WH, Kerry was a war hero and both, while also seen as boring, are/were regarded as two of the smartest leaders in the Dem party.

Whereas Lieberman was just...'crickets'.

 

[U2DMfan]

is there something else besides his healthcare issue that's holding him back?

Joseph Smith

But seriously, Romney doesn't really fit the John Wayne archetype. If John Wayne could play the person (McCain, Dole, Bush41 or 43, Reagan, etc.) in a movie, then they've got a chance. Sounds simplistic but it's sort of true.

Could Huckabee be a VP? He's not running for several reasons, but some of them are void if it's a matter of only 'checking in' once the real slog (and cost) of a primary campaign are over. It's only a few months, not a year. So only a few months away from Fox or whoever else is paying him, and they'll be there afterwards if they lose. And if they win? He's VP. Most people would give up a dicky show on Fox for that job.

He'll surely get asked. He's got the conservative wing, without all the negativity that comes with Palin. (And BVS, I can't see anyone lining her up for that spot again. That would be pure madness on their part, no matter how much they need her base.)

No. It would be strategic if anything (the VP selection).
Just like they all are. And Huckabee adds nothing to a potential nominee. Palin added the female aspect, relatively young and attractive, etc. Huckabee, while a nice guy, is a yokel even to a lot of conservatives. Maybe he could help Romney with southern conservatives...but it's not like southern conservatives are going to readily vote for Obama.

I think the VP selection is going to help in a State trending purple.
Maybe Indiana? I don't know what the numbers are...but it would probably be a midwest selection. Romney/Pawlenty or something.

 

[BVS]

Joseph Smith

But seriously, Romney doesn't really fit the John Wayne archetype. If John Wayne could play the person (McCain, Dole, Bush41 or 43, Reagan, etc.) in a movie, then they've got a chance. Sounds simplistic but it's sort of true.

Oh, I completely agree.

 

[Canadiens1131]

The Newt Newt and Romney health care controversy is fun to watch. A Republican Party not under obstructionist lockstep is a fireworks show this guy can enjoy

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

The other 28 are out of camera range, I guess. Forgot their lawn chairs.

San Francisco Sentinel � Blog Archives � Tea Party rally draws 30 people in South Carolina

A Tea Party rally that was supposed to include an appearance by Donald Trump drew only 30 people in Columbia, South Carolina.

Even though the rally still included Gov. Nikki Haley according to The State only 30 people showed up, “Trump’s decision to not enter the GOP presidential race left local Tea Party leaders stewing about the way they had been treated. But about 30 people were on hand Thursday to thank Gov. Nikki Haley, lawmakers and activists for their work to require more on-the-record Legislative votes.”


The Columbia Tea Party was expecting as many as 2,000 people to show up, but once Donald Trump bailed on them they couldn’t draw three dozen. I am sure that this is going to be the first of many, many stories about how Donald Trump screwed over the Tea Party by bailing out on them, but the truth is that the Tea Party foolishly threw their support behind a con man who never bothered, or seriously intended, to announce his candidacy.

 

[BVS]

 

[kramwest1]

The other 28 are out of camera range, I guess. Forgot their lawn chairs.

San Francisco Sentinel � Blog Archives � Tea Party rally draws 30 people in South Carolina

A Tea Party rally that was supposed to include an appearance by Donald Trump drew only 30 people in Columbia, South Carolina.

I mean seriously, at what point do you just pack it in and cancel the event so that there isn't photographic proof?

 

[deep]

Sorry Indy

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels says sorry, not running for president - CNN.com

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I don't even know who that Herman Cain guy is-but he's running. I looked him up-he used to be the CEO of Godfather's Pizza. Never heard of that, we don't have them. Hermanator? I think they might want to change that name.

Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain announced that he will run for president in 2012 at Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta on Saturday.

The AP reports:

At the speech, Cain tried to build a foundation for his run for the White House. He said the American dream is under attack from runaway debt, a stagnant economy, a muddled foreign policy and an influx of illegal immigrants. He said Americans should be infuriated because the Obama administration's $787 billion stimulus program "didn't stimulate diddly."

"It's time to get real, folks. Hope and change ain't working," he said. "Hope and change is not a solution. Hope and change is not a job."

"The past several months I have been able to meet with people across this country," says Cain in a message posted on his website. "One thing is clear: America craves for real solutions to the problems we face. That's why I'm running for President of the United States."

The newly-minted Republican presidential candidate alerted his supporters that he would be announcing his plans for the next election cycle earlier this week. He recorded a video message addressing his political ambitions and outlining his vision for the future of the country at the time and released a second clip announcing his candidacy on Saturday.

Cain may not be as well known as some of the other Republicans in the 2012 mix; however, he's found success in appealing to conservatives on the trail. He proved to be a smash hit at the first GOP presidential primary debate of the election season earlier this month in South Carolina. HuffPost's Sam Stein reported at the time:

Conservative messaging guru Frank Luntz polls crowds after big events for their instantaneous reaction. And in the case of the GOP presidential debate, the results were pretty remarkable (even though the whole thing is entirely unscientific).

The crowd of roughly 30 unanimously said that pizza magnate Herman Cain won the debate. Only one of them went into the evening supporting Cain. A clear majority -- citing his “straight talk” on the economy and his capacity to criticize the president -- said they would now support his presidential campaign.

“I have never had this kind of reaction until tonight,” said Luntz. “Something very special happened this evening.”

Cain won a straw poll conducted at a national Tea Party summit held in Arizona back in February. He also fired up the crowd in delivering a speech at this year's Conservative Political Action Conference.

The AP relays additional background on Cain:

Cain supports a strong national defense, opposes abortion, backs replacing the federal income tax with a national sales tax and favors a return to the gold standard.

He's never held elected office, losing a three-way Republican U.S. Senate primary bid in Georgia in 2004 with one-quarter of the vote. His "Hermanator" political action committee has taken in just over $16,000 this year.

Cain launched a presidential exploratory committee earlier this year. It remains to be seen if he will find success in raising sufficient campaign funds to run a competitive operation.

Gallup reported on the state of the Republican primary field earlier this month following former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's announcement that he will not run for president next year.

With Mike Huckabee out of the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, three well-known politicians, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich, emerge as leaders in Republicans' preferences. Republicans, however, have less intensely positive feelings about these three than they did about Huckabee. Two less well-known potential candidates, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain, generate high levels of enthusiasm among Republicans who recognize them.

While recent polls don't show Cain to be running toward the front of the GOP presidential pack, Gallup notes:

He is recognized by 29% of Republicans and receives the highest Positive Intensity Score, based on those who know him, of any candidate measured. One-quarter of those familiar with Cain have a strongly favorable view, and only 1% have a strongly unfavorable view.