Getting nervous.........

[U2democrat]

Is anyone else here getting extremely nervous about the campaign? It's so close and will probably stay that way up until Nov 2nd. There's just no way to tell who's going to win at this point. Ah i'm going to piss myself!

 

[Diane L]

Don't be nervous. I know, I get nervous too, and I don't know what I'll do if it doesn't go the way I hope it goes. But have faith...I have a good feeling about this...

I know I sound like a broken record about this, but dailykos.com is a really good place to go if you want to be around a web community that thinks like we do.

Another point...I understand that Kerry & Edwards have been greeted with large enthusiastic crowds wherever they've gone to speak, and the local media has been highly complementary about them. The blog on John Kerry's website might have postings and links to such articles...they'll make you feel hopeful!

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i'm actually not that nervous, considering the fact that lately... it hasn't really been that close. as long as George doesn't screw up on the debates or something really extrodinary happens between now and Nov 2, we're lookin' at 4 more years.

 

[U2democrat]

i'm actually not that nervous, considering the fact that lately... it hasn't really been that close

it all depends on what polls you look at. CNN showed one yesterday, a national poll, that had kerry and bush at 47% each.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

it all depends on what polls you look at. CNN showed one yesterday, a national poll, that had kerry and bush at 47% each.

only polls i look at are the ones that tell me how the electoral vote will go, 'cause those are the only ones that matter... CNN national polls are useless.

 

[neutral]

Is anyone else here getting extremely nervous about the campaign?

Ah i'm going to piss myself!

Yes, I know the feeling, believe me.

It's gotten to the point that I just don't wanna think about but that's a little difficult considering that I'm working for a campaign.

 

[verte76]

Of course I'm nervous. I'm naturally pessimistic, too. But it's going to be really close. I hope it goes my way, if not, life goes on.

 

[zoney!]

what is there to be nervous about? I am way confused by this.

No matter who is elected...they will do the job of running the country...and the world will continue on.

 

[Popmartijn]

only polls i look at are the ones that tell me how the electoral vote will go, 'cause those are the only ones that matter... CNN national polls are useless.

Well, those are close too. Last week Kerry was in the lead (as he also was before the Republican convention). The last few days Bush is ahead, but the margins are very slim.

C ya!

Marty

P.S. DaveC has a great site in his quote: http://www.electoral-vote.com that has the latest news about the state polls.

 

[DaveC]

Marty you beat me to it! I was just about to give that link.

I visit every day. It is extremely close, and it can still go any way at all. Check it out sometime! http://www.electoral-vote.com

 

[verte76]

I'm pretty much psyched to handle it either way. It won't really change my life. Family issues are the things that impact me emotionally in life, not political issues.

 

[STING2]

Well, those are close too. Last week Kerry was in the lead (as he also was before the Republican convention). The last few days Bush is ahead, but the margins are very slim.

C ya!

Marty

P.S. DaveC has a great site in his quote: http://www.electoral-vote.com that has the latest news about the state polls.

While I like the website and look at it often, much of the polling data it uses is suspect.

The most respected polling group, GALLUP has Bush ahead of Kerry in key battle Ground States. Bush has 48% to Kerry's 47% in Pennsylvania. IF Kerry cannot win Pennsylvania, he cannot win the election.

In Ohio, the situation is much worse for Kerry, its Bush 52%, Kerry 44%. This is interesting because OHIO has been the state in the Union that was hardest hit by the recession and has had a very rough time economically. Kerry should have a double digit lead in this state, but is almost behind by double digits.

Missouri has voted for nearly every single president of the past 100 years. Right now its Bush 55% to Kerry's 41%.


History has shown Gallup to be the most reliable polling organization and its current results look good for Bush and not good for Kerry.

Things can change of course, Kerry proved that when he came from behind to defeat Dean in the primary's. But right now, things look good for Bush and I never thought he could have such numbers in an election that was supposed to be so close.

Barring a new crises in Iraq or a major screw up at the debates, Bush is in for four more years based on the current data 7 weeks away from election day.

 

[verte76]

I don't really believe polls at all. They're messy because of many factors, especially partisan percentages and differing criteria for "likely voters". Using different criteria, Rasmussen has Bush at 47.3% and Kerry at 46.4%. That's basically a tie considering that the MOE is 4%. What makes Poll X so much better than Poll Z? Nothing.
*edited because I screwed up*

 

[U2democrat]

It affects me directly, particularly when it comes to interning at the white house or congress when i'm in college. Life in the short term will go on if kerry loses, in the long term it'll f*** things up.

 

[STING2]

Polls have their problems, been when accurately done like Gallup does, they can predict elections and the show what most people in the country are thinking. Gallup has an excellent record.

 

[zoney!]

It affects me directly, particularly when it comes to interning at the white house or congress when i'm in college. Life in the short term will go on if kerry loses, in the long term it'll f*** things up.

Are you GUARANTEED an internship if Kerry wins?

I have a number of friends who have suceeded in D.C. just fine with internships with Senators and Representatives!

 

[U2democrat]

Are you GUARANTEED an internship if Kerry wins?

I have a number of friends who have suceeded in D.C. just fine with internships with Senators and Representatives!

no no no...first of all if i, an ardent democrat apply to work for bush, with this administrations history i doubt i would get accepted.

but i do have a very strong connection with kerry, i know his advance man, who has been working for kerry since '72, and we have talked about me being in the white house w/kerry.

 

[DaveC]

While I like the website and look at it often, much of the polling data it uses is suspect.

The most respected polling group, GALLUP has Bush ahead of Kerry in key battle Ground States. Bush has 48% to Kerry's 47% in Pennsylvania. IF Kerry cannot win Pennsylvania, he cannot win the election.

In Ohio, the situation is much worse for Kerry, its Bush 52%, Kerry 44%. This is interesting because OHIO has been the state in the Union that was hardest hit by the recession and has had a very rough time economically. Kerry should have a double digit lead in this state, but is almost behind by double digits.

Missouri has voted for nearly every single president of the past 100 years. Right now its Bush 55% to Kerry's 41%.


History has shown Gallup to be the most reliable polling organization and its current results look good for Bush and not good for Kerry.

Things can change of course, Kerry proved that when he came from behind to defeat Dean in the primary's. But right now, things look good for Bush and I never thought he could have such numbers in an election that was supposed to be so close.

Barring a new crises in Iraq or a major screw up at the debates, Bush is in for four more years based on the current data 7 weeks away from election day.

How is there "suspect" polling data? The guy uses the most recent poll for the state. He is pro-Kerry and has stated that, but he is fair on this website. Please show evidence of "suspect" results.

And what's up with your Gallup fetish anyways? There are other, equally respectable polling organizations out there, you know. Is it because Gallup seems to have a bit of a Republican slant, where even though if every other poll taken on a single day showed Kerry leading by 5 points, Gallup would still show Bush ahead by 3%, and you'd go with the Gallup result although EVERYTHING else says otherwise? You've done it in the past, buckeye.

 

[STING2]

How is there "suspect" polling data? The guy uses the most recent poll for the state. He is pro-Kerry and has stated that, but he is fair on this website. Please show evidence of "suspect" results.

And what's up with your Gallup fetish anyways? There are other, equally respectable polling organizations out there, you know. Is it because Gallup seems to have a bit of a Republican slant, where even though if every other poll taken on a single day showed Kerry leading by 5 points, Gallup would still show Bush ahead by 3%, and you'd go with the Gallup result although EVERYTHING else says otherwise? You've done it in the past, buckeye.

Sorry, but I have followed polls for many years now and have come to the conclusion that Gallup is by far the most reliable. It is not because they favor any political party at all. Gallup by the way gave Bush the smallest lead out of most of the major polling institutions after the convention.

Gallup has data going back decades and the strongest and most respectable polling history of any polling organization in the world. When it comes to polling, Gallup is not perfect, no organization is, but over the years, I have seen Gallup get it right more often than any other organization.

Back in 2000 when McCain who I was for, was challenging Bush for the Republican nomination, I used to get excited by the Zogby polls where McCain would always do great in, but was brought back to reality by the Gallup poll, which gave a more accurate picture of what was going on.

13 of the last 17 Presidential Candidates that were ahead in the Gallup Poll on Labor day, went on to win the presidential election two months later. Of the 4 that did not, 3 were very close and still within the margin of error which is essentially a tie.

Electoral-vote.com has already admitted that many of the polls it uses or often slanted polling organizations that poll for one of the parties and often engage in push polling. In addition, most polls that can be found are used. The majority of them do not have the reputation or the quality of polling like Gallup.

I enjoy looking at the website, but I have my doubts about many polls. The person running the website has expressed their doubts as well.

 

[sharky]

Uh-oh...I think I may agree with Sting for once. I like electoral-vote.com but yes, the site's data is suspect. It's not comparing apples and apples -- it's just whatever poll is out there. Some states have 5 polls, some have 20, and the criteria is different for each.

I believe the Wall St. Journal's web site has been running a Battleground States poll [only battlegrounds] from Zogby, another good source, and their data seems to be more reliable since it's the same criteria each time.

 

[Popmartijn]

Electoral-vote.com has already admitted that many of the polls it uses or often slanted polling organizations that poll for one of the parties and often engage in push polling. In addition, most polls that can be found are used. The majority of them do not have the reputation or the quality of polling like Gallup.

Electoral-vote has made it clear that it does not use any poll(ster) that engages in push polling. A few days ago it expressedly disqualified Moore Research (in contrast what you might think of the name, it is apparently a Republican slanted poller) because it engaged in push polling.

And with the Gallup thing, even Gallup messes up sometimes (as it did recently with a certain poll, IIRC). The other polls that the guy uses are equally reliable to me, especially since the results often differ only slightly from each other.

C ya!

Marty

 

[DrTeeth]

i'm actually not that nervous, considering the fact that lately... it hasn't really been that close. as long as George doesn't screw up on the debates or something really extrodinary happens between now and Nov 2, we're lookin' at 4 more years.

I'm affraid it's a done deal too, even though there is plenty wrong with Bush and he has made heaps of (to put it mildly) dubious decisions on virtually every terrain. Bush is gonna win this because people rally around their leader in wartime, Bush has more charisma than Kerry, and Bush can afford to be more optimistic and Americans seem to want to hear that everything's going to be okay. The only chance Kerry has is if he kicks some ass in the debates. There's plenty of ammo for that, however Kerry seems to be more interested in talking about Vietnam etc.

 

[Dreadsox]

only polls i look at are the ones that tell me how the electoral vote will go, 'cause those are the only ones that matter... CNN national polls are useless.

Absolutely one of the most intelligent statements ever.

 

[Dreadsox]

Correct me if I am wrong, however, polls take into account a certain amount of voter turnout. If there is an unusual ammount of voter turmnout in the plus or minus the poll is not going to be accurate.....Unless I am missing something.

A funny thing happened to me at school. I have been teaching about the electoral college in school. I have created a game to help kids learn how it works. I get a call from a parental unit saying the popular vote elects the president! I'm sorry to tell u but you are teaching it wrong.... I think I will have a special open house presentation.

 

[DrTeeth]

A funny thing happened to me at school. I have been teaching about the electoral college in school. I have created a game to help kids learn how it works. I get a call from a parental unit saying the popular vote elects the president! I'm sorry to tell u but you are teaching it wrong.... I think I will have a special open house presentation.

Good grief, even I knew this and I'm from another country

 

[neutral]

ed to me at school. I have been teaching about the electoral college in school. I have created a game to help kids learn how it works. I get a call from a parental unit saying the popular vote elects the president! I'm sorry to tell u but you are teaching it wrong.... I think I will have a special open house presentation.

At least their kids will know the facts.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

one would think that someone would research their complaint before voicing it... but then again, anyone who's that clueless probably doesn't know what "research" means.

kerry's slipping in almost every single state... he's slipping in new york, for pete's sake.

and kerry isn't losing because of the vietnam / swit boat thing... he's losing because nobody knows what the hell he stands for, they just know he ain't bush.

 

[verte76]

Oh, good grief! Someone doesn't know how the President is elected! I think the election is pretty much a done deal also, although seven weeks can be a long time in a presidential campaign with a counterpuncher like Kerry, who will fight for the thing. We've lived with four years of Bush, we will last four more if that's what happens.

 

[odowdpa]

IMHO, I think its a done deal for Bush. He's just beat Kerry in every area of campaigning. Someone mentioned NY here as a state he is slipping in, which is awesome, although he'll never win it, but what about the Garden State. It's only a 4-point lead. NJ always goes Democratic. If he loses them, its landslide city for the President. Also, Ohio looks like it also going to go in favor of Bush, which is huge. Looks good for someone who actually has a plan.

 

[Popmartijn]

kerry's slipping in almost every single state... he's slipping in new york, for pete's sake.

Actually, he is gaining again in the battleground states, those that really count. Even though he's slipping a bit in NY, he will still carry that state (probably).

I think it will be a hot autumn...