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Old 10-30-2004, 12:12 AM   #61
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Back to the original thread. The polls are close, but two things break for Kerry in a big way .

1. 2/3 of undecideds usially go to the challenger. (per past elections)

2. Polls are inaccurate because many do not call on younger voters who have a cell phone but no land line phone service. These younger voters are by and large registering as Democrats.

I'm backing the President, but I am not anticipating his reelection.

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Old 10-30-2004, 12:36 AM   #62
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Originally posted by sharky
oh, do you have links for those? they're awesome!

just right click on the images and select properties and the links will come up.

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Old 10-30-2004, 04:40 AM   #63
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ILLM, they are great.
and you hunger for the time
time to heal, desire, time

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Old 10-31-2004, 12:29 PM   #64
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Originally posted by U2democrat

and the redskins game: when they play green bay if green bay wins the challenger wins, if the redskins win the incumbant wins. this will be the 1 time i pull against washington.
The Packers just won 28-14.

Giddy up.
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Old 10-31-2004, 01:10 PM   #65
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Yeah Packers!!!! [and that will be one of the few times I will ever say that.]
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Old 10-31-2004, 02:03 PM   #66
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Hillary Wins!

From the opinions are like an a—ho dept….

Bush wins!

Popular vote north of 50%, probably 51%.

Bush is doing better in Blue states that Gore won by large margins, e.g. only down 7 in CA. Ahead in Hawaii?

EC Over and under is 300. Kerry gets NE all the way down to NJ, probably PENN., IL and Michigan. He also gets West CO., but could lose Oregon.

Bush picks up MIN, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. Holds on to Ohio and FL.

Post election Kerry and Democratic machine launch multiple lawsuits claiming voter intimidation, and disenfranchisement, in states that are within the margin of error. Recounts are done showing Bush won. Dem party will reluctantly backdown when majority public opinion is not on their side, not having the stomach for a protracted post election fight.
But the meme from 2000 will continue, Bush election is illegitimate. Providing ample discussion on the DU board…and talking points invective to fight Bush tooth n nail in his 2nd term….

But be of good cheer, ABB FYM’ers,…
Hillary 2008 campaign begins day after election. She’ll author a federal election/voting bill. probably bi-partisan and co-authored w/ someone like “Scottish-law”Arlen. She won’t seek senate reelection. Why risk it. She’ll win in 08. The likely Pub frontrunners McCain and Rudy, that could beat her, won’t have strong support from the conservative base.
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Old 10-31-2004, 02:19 PM   #67
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as good as any prediction i have seen.
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Old 11-01-2004, 06:22 AM   #68
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Originally posted by Sherry Darling
Isn't there some theory about if the Redskins lose the homegame, the incumbent loses? ???

Yep, there is. Even confirms it's true.

the results of the last game played at home by the NFL's Washington Redskins (a football team based in the national capital, Washington, D.C.) before the U.S. presidential elections has accurately foretold the winner of the last fifteen of those political contests, going back to 1944. If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that occupies the White House continues to hold it; if the Redskins lose that last home game, the challenging party's candidate unseats the incumbent president. While we don't presume there is anything more than a random correlation between these factors, it is the case that the pattern has held true even longer than claimed, stretching back over seventeen presidential elections since 1936:

As noted above, the Redskins lost.


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