Florida predictions?

[Dalton]

Doesn't address the problems with Mitt Romney, now does it?

I think the fact that you're a bitch is pretty relevant though.

Yes or no?

 

[BVS]

as if working with Democrats is some sort crime.

It is...

Wait, I'm having a hard time breaking character.

 

[diamond]

My people in I.D.A have told me of this poll, I don't know how accurate will be-but Romney is up by 7.

These same polling people predicted a 20 point blow out for Obama in So. Carolina, last week-they we're accurate there.

Anyway here's the poll my ppl:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: DEAN DEBNAM
January 28, 2008 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888
Romney expands lead in Florida
Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney has opened up a seven point lead over John McCain in
Florida, according to the newest survey by Public Policy Polling. Romney is at 35%,
followed by McCain at 28%. Mike Huckabee has 13% and Rudy Giuliani is at 12%.
40% of respondents reported making their decision on who to vote for either over the
weekend or in the last week. Romney has a 36-26 lead over McCain among those
surveyed who said they made up their mind over the weekend and a 47-28 lead with
voters who made their decision in the last week.
6% of voters remain undecided. If their choices distribute the same way as those polled
who had made a decision the final result in Florida will be 37% for Romney, 30% for
McCain, 14% for Huckabee, 13% for Giuliani, and 5% for Ron Paul.
“The tide in Florida has been breaking Mitt Romney’s way over the last week,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like he’s picking up support
both from voters who had remained undecided and from folks who no longer think
Huckabee or Giuliani has a chance.”
25% of survey respondents indicated they had already cast their ballots during the early
voting period. Romney’s advantage with that group is 39-30.
The race among those who intend to vote on election day is tighter. Romney leads
McCain 34-28 with that group.
PPP surveyed 680 likely Republican primary voters on January 27th. The survey’s
margin of error is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you have questions about this release or would like an interview regarding this release,
please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
###
January 27, 2008
Survey of 680 likely
Florida Republican
primary voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Florida Republican Primary Survey Results
Q1 The Republicans still running for President
include Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John
McCain, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney. If the
primary was today, who would you vote for? If
Rudy Giuliani, press 1. If Mike Huckabee,
press 2. If John McCain, press 3. If Ron Paul,
press 4. If Mitt Romney, press 5. If you’re
undecided, press 6.
Giuliani................... .12%
Huckabee............... .13%
McCain................... .28%
Paul ....................... . 5%
Romney ................. .35%
Undecided.............. . 6%
Q2 Do you intend to vote on Tuesday, or have you
already cast your vote either through early
voting or an absentee ballot? If you plan to
vote on Tuesday, please press 1 on your
keypad now. If you have already voted, please
press 2.
Vote on Tuesday............................................. 75%
Already voted.................................................. 25%
Q3 Which statement best describes when you
decided who to vote for: this weekend, in the
last week, in the last month, or before that? If
you decided who vote for this weekend, press
1. If you decided who to vote for in the last
week, press 2. If you decided who to vote for
in the last month, press 3. If you decided who
to vote for more than a month ago, press 4. If
you can't remember or you're not sure, press 5.
Decided who to vote for this weekend ............ 15%
Decided who to vote for in the last week......... 25%
Decided who to vote for in the last month ....... 35%
24%
Decided who to vote for more than a month
ago..................................................................
Can't remember or not sure ............................


Word,
<>

 

[Dreadsox]

WEll my friend....

My guy just came out with his poll three minutes ago.

He has MccAIN UP 3%. With 8% undecided....and breaking his way due to a rather important endorsement.

 

[Earnie Shavers]

You just want to punch him square in the face, don't you?

 

[Irvine511]

but are these Florida Republican voters aware that McCain is an evolutionist?

i'd think twice before getting so excited, my friend.

 

[diamond]

WEll my friend....

My guy just came out with his poll three minutes ago.

He has MccAIN UP 3%. With 8% undecided....and breaking his way due to a rather important endorsement.

Your ppl are not my ppl nor members of the illustrious I.D.A. , now are they?

dbs

 

[Dreadsox]

Your ppl are not my ppl nor members of the illustriousI.D.A. , now are they?

dbs

Romney is too liberal to hold the conservatives....McCain is gaining in support from the Middle of the road conservatives....




Do not be too worried......There are 8% undecided. If they all go Romney's way.....he has it wrapped up.

 

[2861U2]

This is tense. I won't be able to sleep tonight. Fortunately, I don't have class until the afternoon

If McCain wins, that's pretty much the nomination. He's already leading in most Super Tuesday states.

I just have this gut feeling that Romney pulls it off, though.

 

[diamond]

This is tense. I won't be able to sleep tonight. Fortunately, I don't have class until the afternoon

If McCain wins, that's pretty much the nomination. He's already leading in most Super Tuesday states.

I just have this gut feeling that Romney pulls it off, though.

It won't be decided until late.

dbs

 

[diamond]

Rudy ppl are leaning towards Mitt right now.
Rudy came out and said John has twisted Mitt's word regarding the surge.

dbs

 

[BVS]

This is tense. I won't be able to sleep tonight.

It's a long long road, don't lose any sleep over it...

 

[maycocksean]

Don't worry, he'll change his tune in the general. One might say he will FLIP FLOP quickfast when those independents become relevant.

McCain disgusts me. I think Mitt knows he's a fake, and he doesn't even try hard to pretend otherwise. McCain has his ass kissed by the media and lies on a daily basis and yet he's got gravitas. This guy has really managed to bamboozle otherwise thinking people into some kind of unintelligent stupor.

I know, I know. I keep holding out hope that he hasn't totally sold his soul.

Obviously, my vote would be going Democratic anyway, but if a Republican had to be in the White House I'd still rather it be McCain. I mean he can't be worse than Bush can he? (And I fear Romney WOULD be).

 

[anitram]

Obviously, my vote would be going Democratic anyway, but if a Republican had to be in the White House I'd still rather it be McCain. I mean he can't be worse than Bush can he? (And I fear Romney WOULD be).

I actually don't think Romney would be worse. Romney really strikes me as a Canadian-type Conservative, basically an economic conservative who doesn't really give a shit about social issues, but talks about them to pander to the base during the election. Generally these sorts get voted out quickly when the inevitable recession hits or when they cut enough taxes and limit social spending to the point where the public is no longer tolerant of them. But they by and large stay away from major non-economic clusterfucks.

I don't really believe there will be a war with Iran. But of the two of them, McCain would certainly be the one I'd see pushing it more than Romney.

I sincerely dislike McCain and feel he is a man of absolutely no principles left. Romney probably never had any principles, but at least he knows it.

 

[verte76]

McCain and Obama.

 

[Tiger Edge]

Am I allowed to vote in the primaries? I'm listed as NPA. I could vote Republican this time around and turn the tide.

 

[2861U2]

RCP has McCain up by 0.6

 

[deep]

Am I allowed to vote in the primaries? I'm listed as NPA. I could vote Republican this time around and turn the tide.

no party affiliation

is allowed to vote in some state GOP primaries

not in CA or FL

what state are you in?

 

[Tiger Edge]

FL

 

[diamond]

More fro the office of Diamond Investigations and Associates:

BRAYNARD GROUP FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
ROMNEY 37.8% - MCCAIN 35.7% - HUCKABEE – 12.4% - RUDY 11.4%
Our Braynard Methodology Survey was conducted January 28 among 500 likely registered Republican voters
(MOE 4% /w 95% confidence level).
Final Results:
Candidate Percentage
Romney 37.8%
McCain 35.7%
Huckabee 12.4%
Giuliani 11.4%
Paul 2.7%
“While McCain prevails among the over 65 age group who are retirees, Romney gets the win from strong
support among those who are still in the workforce. The further the voter is from retirement and the more
they depend on a strong economy to provide them with jobs, the more strongly they identify with Romney’s
economy-focused message. Among voters aged 45-54, Romney’s support doubles McCain’s.”
“Our method succeeds where others fail because we seek out individual respondents who are pre-determined
to be likely voters and are part of a geographically, racially, and ideologically balanced universe,” said Matt
Braynard, president of Braynard Group, Inc. “Other methods fail because they randomly contact individuals
who then inaccurately self-identify as ‘registered’ and ‘likely voters.’ “
The Braynard Precision Survey Method was proven accurate on November 7th when it correctly predicted the
results of the race for US Senator in Maryland while surveys for all other polling firms were wildly inaccurate.
About Matt Braynard
Matt Braynard is a Republican political consultant and president and founder of Braynard Group, Inc. He has
extensive experience with survey research and voter data through his work on the Republican National
Committee’s Voter Vault project and his work for Luntz Research Companies.
About Braynard Group, Inc.

 

[deep]

I guess this is just a practice run
to make sure that Florida ends up in the GOP column in Nov again.


The feds should take over running the elections in Florida


disenfranchising people is not a just a little problem

to be yawned at.

Area voters in Florida Primary are reporting problems at polls
One voter was told by poll workers there was no Democratic primary today

By Robert Perez

Sentinel Staff Writer

2:58 PM EST, January 29, 2008

On Florida Primary day, voters are reporting problems across Central Florida from Daytona Beach to Hunter's Creek. Among the precincts experiencing glitches was one in Orange County where voters were told by poll workers early on there was no Democratic primary today.

Phil Marjason said poll workers at precinct 145 in Hunter's Creek would not give him a Democratic ballot.

"I thought it was plain wrong," he said. "We need to get Florida straightened out."

Orange County Election Supervisor Bill Cowles confirmed that the clerk at the precinct made a mistake.

"I have learned that we did have a situation right at 7 a.m. this morning," Cowles wrote via e-mail to the Sentinel. "The clerk admits she made a mistake."

But Orange County officials said their records show Marjason was given a Democratic ballot and it was cast. Marjason disagreed.

"You sign a piece of paper then you walk over to the next table and they hand you a ballot," he said. "It probably shows that I signed for it, but they didn't give me a Democratic ballot."

Sheneka McDonald spent 10 minutes trying to convince poll workers at the same precinct that she should have a Democratic ballot. She questioned poll workers when she was handed a Republican ballot but was told, "this is the only ballot we have."

"I said, 'How can this be the only ballot,'" McDonald recalled. "That's when the guy chimed in from the back and said the Democratic primary was in March."

The poll captain eventually apologized to McDonald and told her they had forgotten to unpack all the ballots. "It was a little unnerving this morning," she said. "I don't see how you forget to unpack ballots. This is what gives Florida its reputation."

Sharon McDonald said she was given an independent ballot at the Astatula Community Center in Lake County, even though she told the poll workers she was a registered Democrat.

She said she was told that the Democratic primary votes didn't count, so she did not question the ballot. "Shame on me," said McDonald, a homemaker.

A call to the Lake County supervisor of elections office was not immediately returned.

Julie Shepherd, another Orange County voter, ran into a problem at precinct 138 at the Metrowest Golf Club and spent 35 minutes trying to convince poll workers that she's a registered Democrat.

Shepherd, who moved from Pasco County two years ago, said she's a life-long Democrat and blamed the elections supervisor's office for the mistake.

"It's not my error," she said. "Whoever entered my information must have gotten it wrong."

Cowles said that has been the most common complaint from voters during early voting in the primary. But in most cases, the voter is not registered as a Democrat or Republican, he said.

Seminole Election Supervisor Michael Ertel agreed.

"About 95 percent of the calls we're getting involve people who want to vote in the primary," he said.

At least a dozen voters in Orange, Lake, Seminole and Osceola counties claimed they had problems receiving the correct ballots.

Marta Daly of west Orange County had a mix up, too, but it turns out she was mistaken with her party affiliation. She thought she was a Republican, but had registered as an independent in 2000. She was given a nonpartisan ballot, but promises to change her affiliation to Republican before the next election.

In Volusia County, a voting discrepancy at one early voting location has been corrected, said Election Supervisor Ann McFall.

Election officials noticed a four-vote discrepancy between the number of ballots signed for and the number of ballots cast at the Daytona Beach City Island early voting site. The vote count came up one vote shy on Jan. 23 and three votes shy on Jan. 26, McFall said.

The county's elections canvassing board decided Tuesday to re-feed the ballots from the City Island location. The process turned up the four lost ballots.

"Apparently the machine failed to count the four votes the first time," McFall said.

The glitch shouldn't be cause for concern, she said.

"We had the paper ballots to do the repeat," she said. "Three other voting precincts got it perfectly and 10 out of 12 days got it perfectly in Daytona. Our internal system caught it."

 

[diamond]

Research from I.D.A. :

... So far, John McCain has never won a closed Republican primary.

Losing means he doesn't have enough money to compete next week, and probably dooms his chances ...

dbs

 

[phillyfan26]

More fro the office of Diamond Investigations and Associates:

BRAYNARD GROUP FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
ROMNEY 37.8% - MCCAIN 35.7% - HUCKABEE – 12.4% - RUDY 11.4%
Our Braynard Methodology Survey was conducted January 28 among 500 likely registered Republican voters
(MOE 4% /w 95% confidence level).
Final Results:
Candidate Percentage
Romney 37.8%
McCain 35.7%
Huckabee 12.4%
Giuliani 11.4%
Paul 2.7%
“While McCain prevails among the over 65 age group who are retirees, Romney gets the win from strong
support among those who are still in the workforce. The further the voter is from retirement and the more
they depend on a strong economy to provide them with jobs, the more strongly they identify with Romney’s
economy-focused message. Among voters aged 45-54, Romney’s support doubles McCain’s.”
“Our method succeeds where others fail because we seek out individual respondents who are pre-determined
to be likely voters and are part of a geographically, racially, and ideologically balanced universe,” said Matt
Braynard, president of Braynard Group, Inc. “Other methods fail because they randomly contact individuals
who then inaccurately self-identify as ‘registered’ and ‘likely voters.’ “
The Braynard Precision Survey Method was proven accurate on November 7th when it correctly predicted the
results of the race for US Senator in Maryland while surveys for all other polling firms were wildly inaccurate.
About Matt Braynard
Matt Braynard is a Republican political consultant and president and founder of Braynard Group, Inc. He has
extensive experience with survey research and voter data through his work on the Republican National
Committee’s Voter Vault project and his work for Luntz Research Companies.
About Braynard Group, Inc.

Oh no, you've forgotten to sign this "dbs!"

We're doomed.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Oh no, you've forgotten to sign this "dbs!"

Maybe that will lead to a Romney defeat, they have to be tied in somehow

 

[diamond]

Remember, I predicted McCain to sqeak this on out regardless of the polls, however my heart is wit Mitt.

dbs

 

[deep]

Limbaugh votes twice.

Rush encounters voting troubles in Palm Beach

You can't make it up.

Per the Palm Beach Post, El Rushbo's Palm Beach County touch-screen voting machine froze when he tried to cast his ballot.

“I hit ‘Next’ and it didn’t go there,” said Limbaugh, who lives in Palm Beach and often recounts the county’s electoral foibles on his show.

Then he hit the “Back” button and “got my candidate page again with the vote already recorded there. So I said ‘hmmmmm, I wonder if this is going to count twice.”

So he unclicked his favored candidate, clicked that candidate again and hit “Next” a second time - and it worked


If Mitt Romney wins by one vote tonigh, we'll know why.

 

[Tiger Edge]

Ugh.

This reminds me of the time I read about this girl sneaking onto a machine after an old lady left it unfinished. She didn't click done. The girl went back and changed the vote to Bush.
She was boasting about it on a livejournal Republican community and people were actually praising her. Voter fraud!!

 

[phanan]

Considering that the early returns for two of the most populous counties in Florida (Miami-Dade and Palm Beach) have McCain ahead big time, I expect an announcement soon declaring McCain the winner.

 

[Dreadsox]

sORRY dIAMOND

 

[2861U2]

Woo-hoo!