February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday

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Strongbow

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Well, I think McCain is going to beat Romney in 18 of the 21 States in the Republican primaries on Tuesday based on the polling I have seen. There has even been some talk that Romney might not win Massachusetts although I've not seen any polling that would show that, with most polls showing Romney with a 20 point lead. I wonder if Romney will continue if McCain has a victory that large. There is a chance the Republican race for the nomination could be over next week.

With the Democrats, Obama is really coming on strong. In the latest Gallup poll he is only 3 percentage points behind Clinton in the national poll after trailing her by 15 to 20 points for most of the past few months. California has also really tightened with Clinton only ahead by 3 points. Obama has huge leads in Georgia and Illinois. Still most states still have Clinton ahead. There could be a tie between Clinton and Obama on Tuesday insuring that the race will go on much longer. Obama's greater fund raising then starts to become more of a factor. To difficult to say who will eventually win, but if Clinton can do better than expected on Tuesday then that could stop Obama's rise and put her on the right track to win the nomination.
 
McCain will definitely do very well. He'll be very close to 1,191 at the end of the night. He'll take the big states of Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and at least half of California. I would guess he'd be only a couple hundred delegates away, which he'll easily get in Ohio or Texas or Pennslyvania later.

The Democratic race is much closer. I think Hillary will get more of California than Obama. I think she'll get more delegates by the end of the night, though I'd be very surprised if either of them has a lead of larger than 250 or so by the end of the night.
 
I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.
 
U2democrat said:
I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.

then what?
 
I'm not going to make a prediction that far off.


I may be an Obama supporter but that's not going to blind me from reality and rational thought. Odds are I think Hillary will get the nom. That doesn't make me happy but that's what I realistically believe.
 
U2democrat said:
I'm not going to make a prediction that far off.


I may be an Obama supporter but that's not going to blind me from reality and rational thought. Odds are I think Hillary will get the nom. That doesn't make me happy but that's what I realistically believe.

Weird. I'm the opposite. If I had to bet, I would pick Obama at the moment.
 
Realistically, the momentum is on Obama's side. Whether he has time to change what I think the outcome will be remains to be seen.
 
U2democrat said:
I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.



agreed on both points.

there are more than enough Republicans who loathe Bush to give McCain the nomination.
 
BonoVoxSupastar said:
INDY, you a Huck fan?

There are several states that favor Huckabee. Georgia, Oklahoma and of coarse Arkansas. I can see Huckabee as a lot of things but president of the United States is currently not one of them.
 
BonoVoxSupastar said:


This we agree...

See? I'm just trying to find a way to unite...:wink:

4585_faint.gif



:wink:
 
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Irvine511 said:




agreed on both points.

there are more than enough Republicans who loathe Bush to give McCain the nomination.

The vast majority of Republicans support Bush and McCain has been the biggest supporter of Bush's Iraq policy over the past year, so this support for McCain is definitely not some revolt within the Republican party against the Bush administration.
 
Diemen said:
:lol:

How dare you suggest that people don't like Bush, Irvine.



i didn't suggest it. Bush's abysmal approval ratings since January of 2005 up to the present day and McCain's continued bashing of Rumsfeld and Cheney and his very public disagreements with the administration on their "interogation techniques" and his condemnation about the conduct of the war right up until "the surge" speaks volumes.

this is why the base hates McCain. this is why dyed-in-the-wool Bush people hate McCain. because he's been so publically different from them.

and you'll notice that not a single candidate wants to be associated with George W Bush. you hear Reagan (who, gee, had the good sense to withdraw troops from Lebanaon and then raise taxes in 1986) more than you hear Bush. and you hear Hillary more than you hear Reagan. GBW is electoral poison, and they know this.

of course, some people don't listen.
 
Strongbow said:
The vast majority of Republicans support Bush and McCain has been the biggest supporter of Bush's Iraq policy over the past year, so this support for McCain is definitely not some revolt within the Republican party against the Bush administration.

As far as the Romney position on the timetables "buzzword"......do you agree with McCain's characterization of it?

Was it a fair card to play late in the Florida race?
 
Irvine511 said:




i didn't suggest it. Bush's abysmal approval ratings since January of 2005 up to the present day and McCain's continued bashing of Rumsfeld and Cheney and his very public disagreements with the administration on their "interogation techniques" and his condemnation about the conduct of the war right up until "the surge" speaks volumes.

this is why the base hates McCain. this is why dyed-in-the-wool Bush people hate McCain. because he's been so publically different from them.

and you'll notice that not a single candidate wants to be associated with George W Bush. you hear Reagan (who, gee, had the good sense to withdraw troops from Lebanaon and then raise taxes in 1986) more than you hear Bush. and you hear Hillary more than you hear Reagan. GBW is electoral poison, and they know this.

of course, some people don't listen.

Bush has a much lower approval rating given the challenging and difficult task the country is in the middle of, but his approval rating is not as low as Trumans approval rating was before he left office.

Still, Bush is very popular among Registered Republicans. All of the candidates have gone out of their way at every debate to state how they support several of Bush's policies. In fact, they fiercely debate who is more supportive of his policies. So obviously this idea that not a single candidate wants to be associated with George Bush is wishfull thinking.

of course, some people are so obsessed with demonizing and reducing the stature of someone that they might miss that.
 
Bluer White said:


As far as the Romney position on the timetables "buzzword"......do you agree with McCain's characterization of it?

Was it a fair card to play late in the Florida race?

I never really looked into that. Do you have the full quote of what Romney said?
 
I don't know any Republicans that like Bush or the party. They tell me there is no Republican party anymore. These were Regan supporters and Bush was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. His rating is lower than Nixon's. The Republican party has big problems. Right now all the Republican media is bashing McCain, and Romney is a Mormon which the Christen Right has a problem with. It should be interesting to see who gets the Republican nomination.
Now on the Democratic side it seems that Obama has a good chance to winning next Tuesday. Most of Edwards supporters and progressive Democrats are moving towards Obama. The progressive Democrats are a powerful grassroots movement in the party and they are the only reason why Howard Dean is now head of the party. I've seen lots of Obama yard signs and there were volunteers for Obama in my neighborhood today. None for Hillary or yard signs. There were lots of Republicans that showed up to see Obama yesterday in my city. There were articles that Obama is appealing to moderate Republicans including President Eisenhower's grand daughter. The media would love for Hillary to get the nomination, but too many Democrats aren't going to vote for her. Don't listen to the news, since CNN, CBS, ABC and NBC etc... aren't reporting what is going on in Democratic party meetings.
 
Every person I know who likes Bush is stubborn or ignorant, which makes complete sense, because those are Bush's two defining characteristics.
 
watergate said:
I don't know any Republicans that like Bush or the party.

Here's one right here. And I don't believe I'm stubborn or ignorant, philly.

watergate said:
They tell me there is no Republican party anymore.

Sure there is. Both parties are going through huge transformations (or fractures- whatever you want to call it.) Regardless of the fall outcome, the Republican party will be just fine.


watergate said:
The Republican party has big problems. Right now all the Republican media is bashing McCain, and Romney is a Mormon which the Christen Right has a problem with. It should be interesting to see who gets the Republican nomination.

I don't think McCain will have a problem with hardcore conservatives come the fall, especially if Hillary is the opponent. I have a feeling that after an entire summer of listening to her talk, the Limbaughs and Coulters of the world will have no choice but to, as Roberta McCain put it, "hold their nose" and go vote for him.

watergate said:
Obama has a good chance to winning next Tuesday. Most of Edwards supporters and progressive Democrats are moving towards Obama.

I don't think either Democrat will do well enough to "win." I think Hillary will gain more delegates.
 
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2861U2 said:
And I don't believe I'm stubborn or ignorant, philly.

I'm just mentioning that about my friends who like Bush.

I think the ignorance in people following him is usually from people who don't follow politics.

Most of the Bush supporters, IMO, are just stubborn.
 
Strongbow said:


Bush has a much lower approval rating given the challenging and difficult task the country is in the middle of, but his approval rating is not as low as Trumans approval rating was before he left office.

And thank god, eh? Your frequent mentioning of Truman is starting to get me thinking that it actually matters.
:up:
 
Look at the plus side, if he was concerned with poll ratings his policy would be a weather vane that betrayed any supposed convictions for cheap populism, oh wait.
 
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