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Old 02-01-2008, 07:45 PM   #1
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February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday

Well, I think McCain is going to beat Romney in 18 of the 21 States in the Republican primaries on Tuesday based on the polling I have seen. There has even been some talk that Romney might not win Massachusetts although I've not seen any polling that would show that, with most polls showing Romney with a 20 point lead. I wonder if Romney will continue if McCain has a victory that large. There is a chance the Republican race for the nomination could be over next week.

With the Democrats, Obama is really coming on strong. In the latest Gallup poll he is only 3 percentage points behind Clinton in the national poll after trailing her by 15 to 20 points for most of the past few months. California has also really tightened with Clinton only ahead by 3 points. Obama has huge leads in Georgia and Illinois. Still most states still have Clinton ahead. There could be a tie between Clinton and Obama on Tuesday insuring that the race will go on much longer. Obama's greater fund raising then starts to become more of a factor. To difficult to say who will eventually win, but if Clinton can do better than expected on Tuesday then that could stop Obama's rise and put her on the right track to win the nomination.
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Old 02-01-2008, 07:54 PM   #2
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McCain will definitely do very well. He'll be very close to 1,191 at the end of the night. He'll take the big states of Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and at least half of California. I would guess he'd be only a couple hundred delegates away, which he'll easily get in Ohio or Texas or Pennslyvania later.

The Democratic race is much closer. I think Hillary will get more of California than Obama. I think she'll get more delegates by the end of the night, though I'd be very surprised if either of them has a lead of larger than 250 or so by the end of the night.
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:19 PM   #3
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I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:21 PM   #4
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The Gallup poll had 3% but....

Fox - 10%
Rasmussen - 6%
NBC/Wall Street - 15%
LA Times/Bloomberg - 9%
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:28 PM   #5
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Originally posted by U2democrat
I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.
then what?
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:40 PM   #6
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I'm not going to make a prediction that far off.


I may be an Obama supporter but that's not going to blind me from reality and rational thought. Odds are I think Hillary will get the nom. That doesn't make me happy but that's what I realistically believe.
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:50 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat
I'm not going to make a prediction that far off.


I may be an Obama supporter but that's not going to blind me from reality and rational thought. Odds are I think Hillary will get the nom. That doesn't make me happy but that's what I realistically believe.
Weird. I'm the opposite. If I had to bet, I would pick Obama at the moment.
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:58 PM   #8
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After New Hampshire I'm not going to take polls and momentum for granted.
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:23 PM   #9
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Realistically, the momentum is on Obama's side. Whether he has time to change what I think the outcome will be remains to be seen.
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:49 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat
I say McCain will come out as the nominee.

Hillary will get the majority of delegates, but the margin won't be wide enough to solidify her position as nominee. This race goes well into march.


agreed on both points.

there are more than enough Republicans who loathe Bush to give McCain the nomination.
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Old 02-01-2008, 10:41 PM   #11
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Huckabee wins as many states as Romney.
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Old 02-01-2008, 10:54 PM   #12
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INDY, you a Huck fan?
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Old 02-01-2008, 11:08 PM   #13
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Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar
INDY, you a Huck fan?
There are several states that favor Huckabee. Georgia, Oklahoma and of coarse Arkansas. I can see Huckabee as a lot of things but president of the United States is currently not one of them.
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Old 02-01-2008, 11:13 PM   #14
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I can see Huckabee as a lot of things but president of the United States is currently not one of them.
This we agree...

See? I'm just trying to find a way to unite...
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Old 02-01-2008, 11:17 PM   #15
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Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar


This we agree...

See? I'm just trying to find a way to unite...



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