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Old 02-06-2008, 12:30 PM   #376
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Plus, now we allegedly have people who are against the war in Iraq supporting McCain.


now, now. let's not get sloppy again and derive conclusions from facts that don't support them.

he got the anti-war GOP vote, which means people who are registered Republicans who vote in the primaries. of the three candidates, McCain is seen as, ironically, the most anti-war candidate, most likely due to the great effort he put into distinguishing himself from Rumsfeld. it's also likely that, despite his rhetoric of a 100 year occupation of Iraq, these people don't really believe it, and everyone knows, as McCain does, that the surge is unsustainable and troops will begin to come home in 2009. the question is not to withdraw, but how to withdraw.

thus, to these people, McCain seemed the most logical choice. if i were voting in a Republican primary, i'd be voting for McCain.

but, in the general election, i can easily see these people going for the Democrat.

easily. these are the low-hanging fruit of GOP voters. easy pickings, especially for Obama.

and, of course, you do realize that it's McCain's history of working with Democrats that causes him to be despised by the base, right? the guy lost the entire south to a creationist baptist minister. McCain has no base. so, for all his bipartisanship, as an overall advantage, it's kind of a wash in the general.
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:30 PM   #377
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McCain essentially has no money when compared to Romney.
Or Obama.

Or Hillary.
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:33 PM   #378
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The only reason Bush Sr. lost in 1992 was because of Ross Perot. If the evangelicals had stayed home, Bush would have received much less than 38% of the popular vote.


compare the 1992 evangelical turnout to the 2000 and 2004 elections. it's not even close. and Ross Perot isn't the "only" reason. it's quick and easy to say that, but that doesn't make it true.

Bush 2 mobilized them to eek out two victories in ways that his father never could.
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:46 PM   #379
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511




compare the 1992 evangelical turnout to the 2000 and 2004 elections. it's not even close. and Ross Perot isn't the "only" reason. it's quick and easy to say that, but that doesn't make it true.

Bush 2 mobilized them to eek out two victories in ways that his father never could.
From what I've seen and heard Bush 2 portrayed himself, whether true or as a ploy to get votes, much more like one of them. He basically claimed to be a Conservative evangelical. I don't recall ever hearing about Bush 1 doing that, and I haven't heard him refer to himself as one in the years since. I know he is a Christian, but he's seemed to distance himself from the militant evangelicals far more than his son ever has.
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:56 PM   #380
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Washington Post

Romney's Expenses Per Delegate Top $1M

By Jonathan Weisman

Republican campaign operatives call it the Gramm-o-meter, the money a candidate spends per delegate won, in honor of Phil Gramm, the former Texas senator who spent $25 million and won just 10 delegates, or $2.5 million per, in 1996.

By Republican strategist Alex Vogel's calculation, Mitt Romney is giving Gramm a run for his money. The former Massachusetts governor has spent $1.16 million per delegate, a rate that would cost him $1.33 billion to win the nomination.

By contrast, Mike Huckabee's campaign has been the height of efficiency. Delegates haven't yet been officially apportioned, but roughly speaking, each $1 million spent by Huckabee has won him 20 delegates.
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:57 PM   #381
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Obama has more votes right now in the largest counties in New Mexico. The provisional ballots still need to be counted. I don't know who is going to take New Mexico because it is a real close call between Clinton and Obama.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:00 PM   #382
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Originally posted by Strongbow

I think they have had more open primaries than the Republicans. Its also more of an indication that the base of the Democratic party is currently fired up. The general election will involve a massive number of people who never bother to vote in the primaries.
Which likely helps Obama, considering much has been made of his efforts to bring youths into the equation.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:03 PM   #383
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boston.com

CHICAGO -- Now that the dust has (almost) settled, Barack Obama has won more Super Tuesday delegates than Hillary Clinton, his campaign said this morning. Of the 22 states up for grabs, Obama won 13 states to Clinton's 8. They're still counting votes in New Mexico, where Obama holds a narrow lead.

The delegate victory yesterday, assuming it holds, would represent a significant coup for Obama. Clinton had long been seen as the dominant candidate in the Feb. 5 contests, and she was expected to emerge with more delegates.

But while Clinton captured big wins in California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, it wasn't enough to overcome Obama's strength around the country, including in pivotal states like Missouri and Connnecticut. He also did better in Clinton's home state of New York than she did in his home state of Illinois.

"Last night was an outstanding night for the Obama campaign," campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters in a conference call this morning.

According to Plouffe's tally, Obama won 847 pledged delegates yesterday to Clinton's 834, bringing his pledged delegate total to 910. Clinton's overall total, Plouffe said, is 882. But there's a long way to go: It takes more than 2,000 delegates to win the nomination.

UPDATE: Obama, addressing reporters at a Chicago-area hotel this morning, argued that despite feeling victorious after last night, he was still the "underdog," because of Clinton's institutional advantages and broader name recognition. "We are less of an underdog than we were two weeks ago," Obama said, which prompted a chuckle from assembled reporters. "I think that's fair. I think that two weeks ago we were a big underdog. Now we're a slight underdog."

On a conference call with the media this morning, Clinton's campaign aides said they expect neither candidate will have won five or 10 more delegates than the other on Super Tuesday when everything is counted, and they said their current count has them up by one. Clinton aides also touted her success yesterday among late-breaking voters, rural voters, and young voters. And they noted her lead among superdelegates -- the Democratic Party leaders who get a voice in the nomination.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:10 PM   #384
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrsSpringsteen
boston.com

CHICAGO -- Now that the dust has (almost) settled, Barack Obama has won more Super Tuesday delegates than Hillary Clinton, his campaign said this morning. Of the 22 states up for grabs, Obama won 13 states to Clinton's 8. They're still counting votes in New Mexico, where Obama holds a narrow lead.

The delegate victory yesterday, assuming it holds, would represent a significant coup for Obama. Clinton had long been seen as the dominant candidate in the Feb. 5 contests, and she was expected to emerge with more delegates.

But while Clinton captured big wins in California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, it wasn't enough to overcome Obama's strength around the country, including in pivotal states like Missouri and Connnecticut. He also did better in Clinton's home state of New York than she did in his home state of Illinois.

"Last night was an outstanding night for the Obama campaign," campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters in a conference call this morning.

According to Plouffe's tally, Obama won 847 pledged delegates yesterday to Clinton's 834, bringing his pledged delegate total to 910. Clinton's overall total, Plouffe said, is 882. But there's a long way to go: It takes more than 2,000 delegates to win the nomination.

UPDATE: Obama, addressing reporters at a Chicago-area hotel this morning, argued that despite feeling victorious after last night, he was still the "underdog," because of Clinton's institutional advantages and broader name recognition. "We are less of an underdog than we were two weeks ago," Obama said, which prompted a chuckle from assembled reporters. "I think that's fair. I think that two weeks ago we were a big underdog. Now we're a slight underdog."

On a conference call with the media this morning, Clinton's campaign aides said they expect neither candidate will have won five or 10 more delegates than the other on Super Tuesday when everything is counted, and they said their current count has them up by one. Clinton aides also touted her success yesterday among late-breaking voters, rural voters, and young voters. And they noted her lead among superdelegates -- the Democratic Party leaders who get a voice in the nomination.
That's an interesting article! I'm with the camp that believes we might not know our nominee until the convention. I would hope it comes before that, but it doesn't look like it at this point. I'm glad Obama is still humble enough to admit he's got a long way to go if he hopes to get the nomination. The biggest mistake he could make at this point, that has been made by countless other politicians before him, would be to believe his own press. As long as he realizes he still has a lot of people to prove himself too, he has a good shot of getting the nomination. The more he lays out his positions, policies, and visions, the more people who may not have committed to a candidate (or committed to another candidate earlier) could begin to get on board with him.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:16 PM   #385
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Originally posted by U2isthebest


That's an interesting article! I'm with the camp that believes we might not know our nominee until the convention. I would hope it comes before that, but it doesn't look like it at this point. I'm glad Obama is still humble enough to admit he's got a long way to go if he hopes to get the nomination. The biggest mistake he could make at this point, that has been made by countless other politicians before him, would be to believe his own press. As long as he realizes he still has a lot of people to prove himself too, he has a good shot of getting the nomination. The more he lays out his positions, policies, and visions, the more people who may not have committed to a candidate (or committed to another candidate earlier) could begin to get on board with him.
And you know a seasoned politician like Clinton (or, if he does get the nomination, McCain) would take advantage of any over-confidence he may show.

Color me very, very impressed with the success of his campaign thus far.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:56 PM   #386
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Originally posted by MaxFisher
tomorrow...

McCain and Hillary by a nose.
TOTAL VOTES CAST
Clinton: 50.2% (7,347,971)
Obama: 49.8% (7,294,851)
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:57 PM   #387
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TOTAL VOTES CAST
Clinton: 50.2% (7,347,971)
Obama: 49.8% (7,294,851)
That is unbelivably close, closer than anyone expected I would think. Wow.
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Old 02-06-2008, 02:25 PM   #388
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Here's what Harry Reid, Democrat Senate Majority Leader says about McCain temperment:

http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics....20080206f.html





Pulling out his wallet and removing a white piece of paper, Reid told the reporter: "All I have to say about that is this. I have it right here, and you can put it in your little recording devices."

Then, reading aloud, and quoting Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) from an interview last Friday, Reid said: "The thought of him [McCain] being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper, and he worries me."

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Old 02-06-2008, 02:43 PM   #389
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Well at least now we get McCain pictures instead of Hillary ones. Personally I prefer Senator Obama swimsuit pics, but what can I do...
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Old 02-06-2008, 02:49 PM   #390
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I was kind of disappointed by his swimsuit photo...a bit saggier than I expected.
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