February 5, 2008 Super Tuesday

[Diemen]

I get the feeling California will go to Clinton.

 

[phanan]

The early numbers are sure looking that way.

 

[Dalton]

CNN is reporting that she is losing to Obama with both the white and black voters, but is killing him amongst latinos and asians.

 

[yolland]

Current tally:

Clinton--Oklahoma, Tennessee*, Arkansas, New York*, New Jersey, Massachusetts*, California*, Arizona
Obama--Illinois*, Georgia*, Delaware, Alabama, North Dakota, Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota*, Colorado, Idaho, Utah

McCain--Delaware, New Jersey**, Connecticut, Illinois**, New York**, Oklahoma, Arizona**, Missouri**, California**
Romney--Massachusetts, Utah**, North Dakota, Minnesota, Colorado**, Montana
Huckabee--West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee


(* = rather large delegate count + significant-looking victory margin)

(** = winner-take-all state with rather large delegate count, OR significant-looking victory margin in non-winner-take-all state with lots of delegates)

 

[anitram]

MSNBC and Reuters called Missouri for Hillary an hour ago.

Looks like they might be wrong. How embarrassing.

 

[maycocksean]

Wow, Massachusetts must have really put Hillary ahead. My hunch is she takes California and ends up the winner tonight.

So what happens next? Is it over for Obama or does he stay in the fight?

 

[anitram]

Wow, Massachusetts must have really put Hillary ahead. My hunch is she takes California and ends up the winner tonight.

So what happens next? Is it over for Obama or does he stay in the fight?

No way, I think Obama is much better positioned at the end of the night. I see him taking most of the states (maybe all of them) in the next week. I expected him to do much worse.

This is not the night Hillary wanted to see.

And Huckabee is hilarious.

 

[LemonMelon]

So what happens next? Is it over for Obama or does he stay in the fight?

Why would he drop out now? He had a good night, won a large chunk of states...

 

[anitram]

Hillary will win California. The best Obama can hope for is to stick within maybe 10% and split some of those delegates.

 

[Irvine511]

she takes the traditional Dem strongholds, he runs the board in the midwest and inter-mountain west.

what a good ticket they'd be.

i still say she winds up with the nomination, for better or worse.

the GOP seems to be in shambles.

how long is Mitt going to hang on? with all his money, with all his ads, with all his recent support of the republican media infrastructure, how does he still do so poorly?

 

[joyfulgirl]

So what happens next? Is it over for Obama or does he stay in the fight?

He is totally in.

 

[joyfulgirl]

what a good ticket they'd be.

 

[Axver]

Wow, Massachusetts must have really put Hillary ahead. My hunch is she takes California and ends up the winner tonight.

So what happens next? Is it over for Obama or does he stay in the fight?

Looks like he's won more states than her - and even if that doesn't translate to more delegates, I think he's clearly got the momentum. I'm picking him to ultimately clinch the nomination by a painfully narrow margin. And that's what I'm bloody well hoping too. I'd like to be able to do something other than criticise and insult US politics for a change.

 

[LemonMelon]

Looks like he's won more states than her - and even if that doesn't translate to more delegates, I think he's clearly got the momentum. I'm picking him to ultimately clinch the nomination by a painfully narrow margin. And that's what I'm bloody well hoping too. I'd like to be able to do something other than criticise and insult US politics for a change.

Hope you're right, Axver. I don't see Clinton bringing the change or unity this country needs.

 

[corianderstem]

Right now my main reason for rooting for Obama is wanting to break free of the Bush/Clinton run we've had going since I was in high school.

 

[phanan]

Looks like he's won more states than her - and even if that doesn't translate to more delegates, I think he's clearly got the momentum.

Not really, no. I predicted it would be a draw tonight, and that's what we got. Obama won more states, but a lot of them have very few delegates (and quite a few were caucuses, which really are meaningless). Clinton, on the other hand, has taken the two largest states, California and New York, and quite easily, I might add. Factor in how several of the states were close and therefore the delegates will be split, and you have a situation where neither candidate has gained any extra momentum.

This is going to go on for quite a while.

 

[Axver]

Well, given the way Obama has been seriously gaining on Clinton, and the fact that he has managed to essentially turn this into a draw makes me think he really does have the momentum. Someone posted somewhere on here (my mind's gone blank and I can't remember who or which thread!) that had this been held a week later, Obama probably would have won. I think he can run with a draw much better than Clinton can, and that he can convert it into enough delegates in the coming weeks.

 

[phanan]

Based on what just happened in California, I'm not sure that anything would have changed in one week.

I think it goes back and forth all the way to the convention now.

 

[yolland]

Only waiting now on New Mexico for the Dems (for projections, anyway--bit too early to tally delegate counts yet).


Current tally:

Clinton--Oklahoma, Tennessee*, Arkansas, New York*, New Jersey, Massachusetts*, California*, Arizona, American Samoa
Obama--Illinois*, Georgia*, Delaware, Alabama, North Dakota, Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota*, Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Missouri, Alaska

McCain--Delaware, New Jersey**, Connecticut, Illinois**, New York**, Oklahoma, Arizona**, Missouri**, California**
Romney--Massachusetts, Utah**, North Dakota, Minnesota, Colorado**, Montana, Alaska
Huckabee--West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee


(* = rather large delegate count + significant-looking victory margin)

(** = winner-take-all state with rather large delegate count, OR significant-looking victory margin in non-winner-take-all state with lots of delegates)

 

[anitram]

MSNBC is projecting Obama wins the delegates 841-837.

Not sure if they're on crack or what because that would be quite impressive.

 

[yolland]

No that sounds about right. It's very close for sure.

 

[Irvine511]

what's interesting is McCain. he's all reach, no base. what propelled him to victory was the anti-war GOP vote.

[q]Another surprising finding in the national exit polls: John McCain — who has made the war in Iraq and the need for continued U.S. involvement there a centerpiece of his campaign — is actually winning among Republicans who are against the war. Among those Republicans who disapprove of the war, nearly half voted for McCain, while only a quarter voted for Mitt Romney — even though McCain spent the past few weeks trying to portray Romney as more liberal on the war.

Moderates — those most likely to disapprove of Iraq – seem to simply prefer McCain, even when they don't square on the issues.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-mccain-the-favorite-of-anti-war-republicans/

[/q]


fascinating.

 

[U2DMfan]

Maybe they at least respect the fact that he criticized the troop levels when all the rest were afraid to say anything remotely negative about the war at all.

That or those Reps opposed to the war might likely be more fiscally minded business or states rights conservatives as opposed to the religous conservatives, some who actually believe that the 'terrorists' are possesed by evil spirits and we are on the cusp of Armageddon and all "ragheads" with a weapon are terra'ists. Basically, those who can't tell the difference between the Iraqi civil beef and al-qaeda.

In any event, I'm surprised McCain won here in Oklahoma.

 

[anitram]

McCain will have enormous problems in the general. Nobody has a better GOTV than the evangelicals. If they stay home, he's toast. If he panders to them, he'll lose the independents.

 

[Irvine511]

McCain will have enormous problems in the general. Nobody has a better GOTV than the evangelicals. If they stay home, he's toast. If he panders to them, he'll lose the independents.

but McCain has 50 years of experience. and hes' never been wrong.

surely the evangelicals will put aside their agenda and vote for the most qualified man *ever* to run for the office of the presidency.

 

[U2democrat]

The whole delegate thing for the dems is making my head spin.


Regardless, this race moves on

 

[sulawesigirl4]

The whole delegate thing for the dems is making my head spin.


Regardless, this race moves on

And we get to vote in one week!

Go Virginia. Whatcha think, U2dem? Who's going to get the majority of Dems in VA?

 

[U2democrat]

I would say Obama, but NOVA might be a Clinton stronghold.

 

[sulawesigirl4]

Agreed. Although, I was at a Superbowl party last week in which a lot of people were very excited about Obama's campaign and they all live and work in the NOVA/DC metro area. It will definitely be interesting to see how it shakes out.

I have lunch most days with two of my colleagues: one a staunch Dem, one a Republican. The Dem is voting Hillary, the Rep (former military) wants McCain, and I seem to be leaning towards Obama at this point. We're like our own political lunch discussion group.

 

[redhotswami]

I would say Obama, but NOVA might be a Clinton stronghold.

really? why do you say that?