EU + China = bad news for US - U2 Feedback

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Old 01-22-2005, 11:33 AM   #1
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EU + China = bad news for US

I caught a little of David Gergen being interviewed on CNN the other day. For those who don't know, Gergen was a prominent advisor to Clinton, Reagan, Ford, and Nixon. He was discussing Bush's speech and second term, and he mentioned that he knew of people who were concerned that some European leaders were going to see Bush's words and the plans he laid out as a continuation of the wedge that has formed between Europe and the US.

He said some European leaders may be thinking along the lines of, 'if the kind of freedom you're talking about spreading is the kind we're seeing in Iraq, we're not interested'. I personally didn't interpret the speech that way, but then again I am not a European leader and have never been a presidential advisor.

Gergen said, though, that the concern is if Europe continues to distance itself from the US, they will be very likely to form an alliance, economic and/or otherwise, with China. Europe is already more open and willing than the US to deal with China, and if things continue the way they are going, the result may be some sort of super - alliance.

Things would change in many ways for the US if this happened, obviously, and Bush would not be judged very kindly by American history books. On the other hand, if his plans succeed, he will go down as a visionary. It is possible for both to happen, I guess, but the result would still be the US losing its position in the world. After all, the US and a handful of fledgeling democracies doesn't exactly pack the same punch as the EU and China.

This is nothing more than the slightest of possibilities, of course, but still interesting to think about.
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Old 01-22-2005, 12:37 PM   #2
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Quote:
The new world order
By Martin Walker

WASHINGTON, Jan. 17 (UPI) -- The tectonic plates of geopolitics have just shifted. On an issue of major strategic concern to the United States, the European Union has decided to flout American concerns and side with China, and Britain has put its vaunted "special relationship" with the United States to one side, and has gone along with its fellow Europeans. A new world order is coming.

Britain's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw heads to Beijing this week to kowtow before the Middle Kingdom, and tell his Chinese hosts that Britain's long opposition to removing the European embargo from selling arms to China is about to end.

Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair explained personally to President George W. Bush that Britain could no longer hold out against the majority opinion in the European Union, and the ban that was imposed after the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989 would have to be lifted. It would be replaced by an EU "code of conduct," Blair said, that would restrain sales of arms that could worsen tensions with Taiwan or change the balance of power in Asia. "The U.S. have an entirely legitimate and understandable interest both in the effectiveness of the EU's system of arms control and in issues of regional stability in that area," Straw said. "There will be intensive discussions with the Americans."

But Bush was not mollified by the British explanations, and U.S. officials see this as a grim augury for future EU-U.S. relations, just as Bush is heading over to Brussels next month for a trip that was supposed to mend fences, to smooth over bygone rows over Iraq and start off the second term with a new determination to strengthen Transatlantic ties.

The British went ahead despite explicit warnings from U.S. officials that there was a strong risk of retaliation by Congress, both by clamping down on technological cooperation between U.S. and European arms manufacturers and limiting access to the U.S. arms market. Britain would suffer most, with BAE (British Aerospace) and Rolls-Royce the two biggest foreign suppliers to the Pentagon, with broad security clearances that deem them to be virtually American companies.
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Old 01-22-2005, 12:52 PM   #3
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China isn't my favorite country by a longshot.. I have always kind of felt the country's has been way over-glorified.
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Old 01-22-2005, 03:00 PM   #4
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China's human rights record sucks. I still remember the massacre in Tianenman Square. But an alliance with China could give the EU alot of power to do as they see fit. Interesting. If I had to give one word for Bush's policies it would be "risky".
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Old 01-22-2005, 03:11 PM   #5
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Nations have fixed interests and never fixed allies, if in the long term the EU moves towards China then so what; the US will have the oil
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Old 01-22-2005, 05:15 PM   #6
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Chalmers Johnson talks about this in his book Sorrows of Empire. He says if China's investors wake up one day and decide the euro is a better investment than the dollar and begin investing in the euro, the US economy crashes by 40% and we wake up a third world country (much like what happened with Argentina) and the effects would of course ripple around the world. He paints a pretty bleak picture and feels this is imminent, but I don't really understand economics so don't ask me any questions, lol.
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Old 01-22-2005, 05:45 PM   #7
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The Worlds largest market is the United States and from a business perspective, both China and the EU have more interest in finding common ground with the USA, than going against it. It would be a global disaster for everyone if the USA economy were to crash by 40%. The GREAT DEPRESSION saw a 15% decline in the USA economy which hurt the rest of the world as well back in the 1930s. But this is NOT the 1930s and the world is FAR more interdependent today economically than it was in the 1930s. Much of China's economic growth today is dependant on exports to the United States. Anything that would hurt US consumers ability to continue to buy Chinese would have a serious impact on the Chinese economy. Same goes with the EU.

Bottom line, both China and the EU want to see a stronger dollar and a healthy economic situation in the worlds largest market because THEY make more money when thats the case!

Outside of economics, both China and the EU from a military perspective have extremely limited power projection capabilities, so their ability to do anything from a military perspective beyond the countries they border, combined is only a tiny fraction of what the United States has the capability to do.
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Old 01-22-2005, 06:33 PM   #8
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Economically, China is too interesting to ignore for European capital. China has made a leap forword regarding quality of certain products, f.e. electronica & high tech, in compare to American products.

Plus, just look at the market size. I think a billion of consumers in compare to roughly 300 millions can´t be estimated high enough. China is a super power, and the EU has to deal with it.

It´s very simple.
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Old 01-22-2005, 11:52 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by whenhiphopdrovethebigcars
Economically, China is too interesting to ignore for European capital. China has made a leap forword regarding quality of certain products, f.e. electronica & high tech, in compare to American products.

Plus, just look at the market size. I think a billion of consumers in compare to roughly 300 millions can´t be estimated high enough. China is a super power, and the EU has to deal with it.

It´s very simple.
In the lastest Human Development Report, the United States is ranked at having the 8th highest standard of living in the world while China is all the way down at #94, only 8 spots ahead of the "Occupied Palestinian Territories" at #102.

China has over a Billion people, but not a Billion consumers able to buy products at international prices. Despite having over a Billion people, China's total GDP is less than half that of the United States, and China's Per Capita GDP is not even in the top 100, even when one adjust for "Purchasing Power Parity".

China is a growing and developing market, but any European company if they had to choose between the two, would choose to be able to sell their products in the United States as opposed to China.

If that does not demonstrate the point, consider which country buys the majority of U2's albums and the majority of its concert tickets at the highest price levels! If U2, a European band, from a business perspective, could pick only one country in the world to sell albums and concert tickets, it would be the United States easily! The same goes for most other European Business's.
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Old 01-22-2005, 11:57 PM   #10
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However long term trade with China will be important because it is moving ahead ~ not a superpower right now but it could become one in the future.
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Old 01-23-2005, 12:04 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
However long term trade with China will be important because it is moving ahead ~ not a superpower right now but it could become one in the future.
Indeed it is possible, but it will be dependent on good trade with the USA as well as the US consumer in order to get to that point. A strong US economy benefits China as American consumers will have more income to buy products and services from China.
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Old 01-23-2005, 01:43 AM   #12
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You´re both looking at the past. I´m talking about the future. China has (officially) been (regarded) a superpower for the last decade. Wake up!

Without going into detail, the example with the recording industry does not make sense. Record sales are not comparable with the state of economy. For some products, China will be a market far more interesting than the U.S. (I´m not an expert in agriculture, but if you have a billion people to feed, you need many agricultural machines, for example), whereas in other industries - namely entertainment - a certain Western cultural perception and traditional trade relations are dominating.
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Old 01-23-2005, 02:24 AM   #13
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I agree that China will be a more interesting market, sucessive Australian governments have been steadily making in-roads in China for the last few decades recently culminating in a multi-billion dollar natural gas deal and the beginning of trade negotiations relating to a bilateral free trade agreement in the long term.

China simply is not at a stage where it can rival the United States economically, ideologically or millitarily ~ in fact the move towards a free market demonstates the mutual benefits of both nations coexisting; I would hope that there can be an accomadation of interests when it is all the way there. I am not looking to the past, China is an emerging superpower and I think that over the next few decades it will rise into full superpower status but right now - not in the past, not in the future - it is premature to label them superpower and I do not think that it possesses such a status either officially or unofficially. In a decade or two if the building up they are doing now suceeds then it will be a different story.

Once China becomes strong enough to stand alone, it might discard us. A little later it might even turn against us, if its perception of its interests requires it.
- Henry Kissinger

When China awakes, it will shake the world.
- Napoleon Bonaparte
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Old 01-23-2005, 04:16 AM   #14
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I may also state that contrary to popular belief China is still very much a communist state with all of the human rights abuses that for some bizzare reason seem to occur in communist countries ~ of course this is just a fluke because we all know that communism is a good idea only it has been implemented the wrong way every time it was tried, China's human rights problems stem more from Maoism of course and its lasting legacy. In any case economic expansion should not be without conditional liberalisation, human rights and possibly compromise on the issues regarding Taiwan.

I may also state that a big part of the EU's planned economic expansion with China will be the lifting of the arms embargo and subsequent weapons purchases by the Chinese from European defence contractors. You also have the invitation to the Chinese into the new Galileo satellite navigation system. This will translate into megabucks for European firms as China's millitary is brought up to scratch and also the move from emerging superpower to superpower proper. It also makes great sense because in the event that the Chinese invade Taiwan and the US honours its obligations then European nations can stay on the sidelines until the radioactive dust settles and they will be the dominant power in the world, all competition will be gone. I am treating this with the same skepticism that the US is treated with in all of its deeds so don't get uppity and pretend that your countries don't act in their own interests ~ Australia sold wheat to Saddam for goodness sakes and the deals with our wheat board were shady in some areas.

No nation or collection of nations are perfect and dealing with China is an example of this, when countries rush to put their economic interests ahead of human rights they forfeit the moral high ground and in this world there is no nation that acts out of principle instead of greed.
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Old 01-23-2005, 08:10 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
No nation or collection of nations are perfect and dealing with China is an example of this, when countries rush to put their economic interests ahead of human rights they forfeit the moral high ground and in this world there is no nation that acts out of principle instead of greed.
Agreed.

As to superpower or not:
http://www.garnertedarmstrong.ws/Mar...hina1-23.shtml

China's global role cannot be ignored
Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service

Where is China heading? The direction the communist country takes is of the utmost concern not only to other East Asian countries, including Japan, but also to the international community.

Over the past quarter of a century, China has achieved average annual economic growth of 9 percent. The Chinese economy, which is expanding by gulping down capital and natural resources as if it were a black hole, now holds sway over the international market in all areas.

This could be seen as proof that China, which firmly established itself as the "factory of the world," has also become the "growth center of the world."

In line with the economy's rapid growth, the country's ambition to become a military power shows no sign of abating. China's military expenditures have increased by more than 10 percent every year since 1989, allowing the country to make marked progress in modernizing its military equipment, geared toward warfare involving advanced technology. In particular, the buildup of its navy and air force has been notable.

The prevailing view has it that the military balance between China and Taiwan will shift to put China in an advantageous position within a few years.

The energy propelling this growth is no longer focused only inward, but has begun to expand outside the country. One after another, Chinese business enterprises are entering the international market. Late last year, a leading Chinese personal computer company purchased International Business Machine Corp.'s personal computer business, sending shock waves around the world.

"Venturing abroad" seems to be the key phrase in China's strategy for making inroads into the foreign market, and its sights are set first and foremost on the countries that belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

ASEAN, which was originally seen as an anticommunist bloc, was for a long time at odds with China. From the beginning of grouping's formation, Japan boasted of its political and economic clout over the ASEAN countries. But after the Cold War ended, China stepped up its attempts to establish a presence in ASEAN countries by approaching them both economically and diplomatically, trying to counter Japan's position.

The race between Japan and China to conclude free trade agreements with ASEAN countries is a foretaste of the rivalry between the two countries, which is expected to escalate in the future.



Technology superpower from China starts to flex some muscle




The Chinese PC maker that gobbled up the manufacturing arm of IBM in Scotland may just be the first in a long line of global players emerging from the East. Iain S Bruce reports

http://www.sundayherald.com/46587

East has met west, and this time, the boot is on the other foot. That a corporate player from beyond our ken has stepped in to devour one of the 20th century’s most iconic brand names might have taken many by surprise, but this is no anomaly, this is no blip. This is how business is going to be, and you’d better get used to it now.

Even after days of speculation, IBM’s decision to sell its PC hardware division to Chinese computer maker Lenovo still came as a shock to many, but in reality the $1.75 billion (£900m) deal is merely symptomatic of geopolitics’ rapidly shifting sands. Creating the world’s third biggest PC vendor at the stroke of a pen, it not only stands as testament to China’s inexorable rise as a technology and manufacturing superpower, but also herald’s the dawn of a global marketplace that has long been talked of, but only now is beginning to really happen.

“What’s surprising is not that they sold out to China, but that they didn’t do it years ago. Essentially, this deal has allowed one company to dispose of a loss-making division while boosting the revenues and reach of a second, and in many ways it represents the only logical course of action available to them,” says Tim Sagar, UK head of Chinese electronics manufacturing giants Haier.

Some predict that China will become the next superpower, surpassing even the United States both economically and militarily, in the first half of this century.

http://english.people.com.cn/200212/...6_108522.shtml

China is the world's richest nation in human resources, making it a "people superpower", Maurice Strong, the United Nations Under Secretary-General, said in Beijing Sunday.

People were a national's fundamental resource on which all development depended, and China's international strength was people, Strong told the on-going 2002 International Human Resources Forum.

Strong said China was moving rapidly toward greater integrationwith the global economy, benefiting from the opening-up of its economy and membership of the World Trade Organization, through which the whole nation was improving its knowledge and technical capacities.

This could be seen in the increasing exports of China-made products and the growing number of foreign companies moving their plants to China, he added.

China's unprecedented economic growth provided a great magnet for foreign companies and investors. More than 400 of the Fortune 500 companies had invested in China.
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