Cuba Libre?

[DaveC]

Well some folks are saying ol' Fidel hasn't got too much time left.

I can't imagine that a transfer of power to someone new would be completely smooth.

Here are the situations as I can see them.

1) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor and the successor immediately consolidates power.

2) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor, but the successor does not consolidate his power, and an internal power struggle ensues within the Communist Party.

3) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor, but the successor does not consolidate his power over the country, and a revolt ensues.

4) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party as an entity keeps power, but an internal power struggle occurs within the Communist Party, and major upheaval results, finally ending with someone taking power.

5) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party as an entity keeps power over the populace, but not the military. A military coup-d'état ensues and Cuba becomes a military junta.

6) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party fails to secure power and a whole lot of factions fall into a civil war.

7) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party fails to secure power. The US invades to implement democracy and fill the vacuum of power right next door.

Which do you think is the most plausible outcome? Or is it something different entirely?

 

[BluRmGrl]

Which do you think is the most plausible outcome? Or is it something different entirely?

Fidel will die.

 

[A_Wanderer]

I suspect that Fidel Dies and then Raul Castro takes over, either he attempts to open up to the US or he goes on as usual and evetually dies. Ultimately Cuba will be free and we will be one step closer in erradicating the hell on earth known as socialism or more to the point communism.

 

[anitram]

I suspect that Fidel Dies and then Raul Castro takes over, either he attempts to open up to the US or he goes on as usual and evetually dies. Ultimately Cuba will be free and we will be one step closer in erradicating the hell on earth known as socialism.

I think the view among the Cubans is that the brother is just as bad, except half as smart, which is a deadly combination.

And A_W, maybe you mean communism? Plenty of democratic socialism can be found in western Europe and elements of it in Canada as well and we're doing well for ourselves. I've lived in Communism and in Democratic Socialism and the two are entirely different beasts.

 

[A_Wanderer]

They are definitely different beasts but that becomes a question of degree (and obviously there is a difference between having to wait 6 months for cheap dentistry and being carted off to a gulag for dissent), people being dependent on the state is not good.

 

[DaveC]

Straight from the conservative's mouth.

But fuck Fidel Castro!!

The Red Sox just won the World fucking Series!!!!

 

[hiphop]

You forgot

8) Fidel dies. His successor, a Communist, whether appointed or not, decides it´s time for the Cuban Communists to go a new way, and permits free elections for a few years later. Opposition forms quickly.

Don´t think that can happen? Think again after studying the political history of Nicaragua, keyword Sandinistas.

8.1) In case of a Communist majority, the Communists stay in power and slowly try to open up Cuba to external influences; still, key areas like free education and free medicare are not privatized. It´s the state´s duty to provide them, but the state continues to have serious problems of doing so, because economy is exhausted after decades of blocking. American pharma-companies would like to export medicines, but are blocked by Washington lobbyists. Meanwhile in Cuba, uproots because of social unrest are quickly suppressed by the Cuban army, which has stayed strong despite political changes. Anyway, Cuba tries to go its own way, focuses on import-substituting industralization (like Chile at the start of the 70s) and slowly manages to improve its health and social standards.

8.2) In case of an Opposition majority, the Communists step down from power. Cuba goes for free trade and privatization in the course of a few months, and is overrun by companies like Ford who love cheap new workers - probably cheaper than anywhere else in the region - close a few plants in the U.S. and start mass production in Cuba. Cuban police, formerly paid by the state, is privatized, but with minimum wages. Quickly falling into corruption, Cuba becomes the next paradise for arms and drugs trafficking. Additionally, Firestone buys up every place where natural resources are to be found (don´t think it can happen? Take a look at Liberia), corrupts the new democratic government, and trade-free zones are established all over the country. People live like in prisons (don´t think so? look at 8 million people in China - or if you want another example, take Mexico´s Maquiladoras).

 

[Se7en]

Ultimately Cuba will be free and we will be one step closer in erradicating the hell on earth known as socialism or more to the point communism.

Yay! And then the free market will provide salvation for the millions and millions of impoverished people worldwide. The G8, IMF, and World Bank will purge the sins of the world! The almighty dollar will reign supreme over a cleansed earth and the glories of walmart will be known to all mankind! Can I get an amen?!

on topic:
we had a cuban scholar visit my marxism class and he was pretty convinced that cubans will go on as always. the question is whether or not big brother to the north will step in. i think US intervention is a likely scenario. if we're willing to maintain an illegal and devistating embargo for 40+ years i don't see how invasion (whether it be covert or not) is that much of a stretch.

 

[A_Wanderer]

I would rather have discount yard products and minimum wages in a free country than rigged elections, death squads, prisons for AIDS sufferers and firing squads for dissenters.

The cause of creating heaven on earth by abolishing private property, free markets, and individual freedom kiled almost 100 million civilians in the 20th Century, these deaths are because of communism and all that blood can never be washed away.

We need to see less government dependence and not more - we should never become slaves to the whims of state power.

 

[Se7en]

i'd love to see a tally of how many deaths capitalism has/will be responsible for yesterday, today, and tomorrow...let alone the past 200 years. military casualties alone would be astronomical, start throwing in those civilians and your death count really starts crackilackin'!

of course i will make no excuses or rationalizations for any totalitarian leader, ever. but communism was never realized by any of them. totalitarian despotism can be thanked for the 20th century, not a bearded guy from germany. it's like saying jesus was responsible for the crusades. that bastard.

scientific socialism/marxism has nothing to do with slavery to sate power. read a book, better yet read marx himself. and if you already have, read it again.

 

[hiphop]

I would rather have discount yard products and minimum wages than rigged elections, death squads, prisons for AIDS sufferers and firing squads for dissenters.

However you might think, and however right you may be with single arguments (I also don´t favor death squads etc.) that you´re adding in your head and firing off: no offense there, but the title of this thread is not about what you would rather have.

In your thought system, Western democracy with a few conservative values is the ideal example of a society that provides food, healthcare and education. By now I know your point of view, and you don´t really impress me by saying hell on earth is socialsm, edited: communism, and "Islamofascism".

I mean, it´s fine by me, you can cling to your thought system the rest of your life, if you want to, as long as you have a certain level of respect in your discussion manners.

But you know what would really impress me?

Paint an exact scenario with pros and contras on both sides, like I did.

If you don´t have the expertise to get on a higher level of discussion, then leave it to Cuban political scientists.

You are free to keep repeating your ideal Western democracy system; but keep in mind that others have seen all the poverty it causes in other parts of the world, and therefore do not believe in what you believe.

[Just as an add-on edit, if you think that personal property was forbidden, you are totally wrong. Industrial private property was forbidden, but personal property was allowed.

If you bought a chicken in the former U.S.S.R., it was your chicken; your clothes were your clothes, your living space belonged to you, or to a housing cooperative - not to the state. Also, it didn´t belong to a private bank until you had paid it off, like it is the case in Western societies. Even the Vodka that you bought belonged to you.

On the other hand, you were not allowed to own a production facility. It belonged to the state, or as the leaders proclaimed, "to the workers" (well, theoretically at least). Agricultural land belonged to the state (and thus "to the people", well - practically the values weren´t quite equally shared like that), but surely not to private shareholders. Same goes for mines, oil, etc.]

DaveC asked for the most plausible outcome. That´s what I replied to, by adding another possibility.

 

[A_Wanderer]

I am not trying to impress you with broad sweeping and I would be the first to admit extreme generalizations, nor am I trying to talk about the finer points on how communism in Cuba was a better system than the truly fucked up Batista regime and that in context it is a neccessary evil, or how today Castro holds onto power through a well established system that rests on his own mortality. I am not trying to do any of that. I am trying to argue the point from a different perspective than the one that I actually hold, and I was not doing a very good job at it.

The only goddamn way that anybody can get any proper debates running here is by throwing a molatov cocktail into the mix once in a while. If you mistake that for a lack of nuance or sheer stupidity/simplicity on my behalf then you are wrong - you may misjudge me but only because I am not giving away all of what I believe.

Do I think that communism is inherently bad as a system of governance, no. Do I think that the vast majority of implementations have led to many deaths then the answer is certainly yes. I do not see the western style governments where the rich and corrupt rule over the masses as the ideal system - there is a lot to be done, humanity can end war, poverty, racism but it requires the right conditions. Capitalism is by no means the greatest economic system - there are always losers who get royally shafted by multinationals. Capitalism always has and always will rest on the backs of the masses - but steady progress can deliver humanity to a more tennable position, violent revolution and war do not,

The ultimate ideal system is not western by nature, it would be human, where people needs (healthcare, food, shelter etc.) are fufilled and they can live their lives exactly the way they want, without coercion from any authority. This is probably never going to happen - ever. So I will cease making such utterly fucked up propositions but only because I am so fucking sick of seeing the world as it is and not as it should be. I am so utterly fucking disgusted at seeing people going around in circles with ideas that kill. Do I think that Bush is a great president - Fuck No! but Kerry is no better and the entire wheel will keep on turning no matter who wins. True change is impossible

I am pleading here WHY THE FUCK IS MANKIND HELL BENT ON EXTERMINATING OURSELVES!!!

Preservation of individuality is one of the few things worth dying for in this world and it is threatened on all sides and all of it because humanity is still addicted to absolute power. On one end you have the end product of "Western Civilization" superpowers harnessing the power of the sun to wipe out the world and on the other you have religious nuts wanting to drag humanity back to the 7th Century because they choose to really listen to the ravings of a madman.

this
is
the
result

Couldn't we see a more enlightened view, because mankind is all the same species, a world view where our knowledge and technology can be used to better mankind?

Couldn't we use reason as a guide over superstition, couldnt we overcome the problems of the world in this manner. Humanity must move forward together into the light of discovery and knowledge - then and only then can there be peace that makes life worth living for all people.

There is no free world until all are free!

Yearrghhhhh, this is not a fuck you message - this is a fuck me message because I can honestly tell you that attempting to rationalize and advocate positions that disgust myself is totally disconcerting. I loath despotism in all its forms, and I do not believe that you can force liberty upon any people with force - the opportunity can be fought for but it the people that decide themselves.

Well there is a well orchestrated piece of burnout - I made a post in my journal prior that layed this out but this does it quite fine. I loath despotism and I will not distinguish between good despotism and bad despotism. There is such a thing as freedom and people will always choose freedom over subjegation.