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Old 10-25-2004, 06:36 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC


Either the Zogby poll or the previous poll (by Ohio University) that was released 2 days ago is completely false.

Zogby has Bush up 5% in Ohio. The polls for the previous week have had Kerry up, the most recent by 6%. An 11% change in one day is basically impossible in a state with so few undecideds.

Zogby also has Bush leading by 5% in New Mexico (a big eyebrow raiser) and Kerry leading by 4% in Colorado (an even sketchier poll). I would tend to disbelieve at least this current round of Zogby polls.
I love the tactic of "oh well if the polls don't go for my guy they must be false and we shall ignore them."
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Old 10-25-2004, 06:38 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally posted by drivemytrabant


I love the tactic of "oh well if the polls don't go for my guy they must be false and we shall ignore them."
Some of us here have been saying that the polls are a poor indicator for months, when there was a lead, when there was not a lead, when there was a tie, when the sky was purple and so on.

I learned my lesson in the Canadian elections this year. The pollsters were so wrong it wasn't even funny. They had the Conservatives polling higher than the liberals, poised to form a minority government, only days before the election. Turns out the Liberals essentially routed them.
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Old 10-25-2004, 06:50 PM   #33
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Re: Re: bush will win.

Quote:
Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar

What does this mean? I'm lost.



When did he do this?
In 1971, John Kerry went before Congress and accused ALL officers at all levels of command in Vietnam of either participating, approving, or having knowledge of yet doing nothing about, war crimes in Vietnam.
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Old 10-25-2004, 06:50 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally posted by anitram


Some of us here have been saying that the polls are a poor indicator for months, when there was a lead, when there was not a lead, when there was a tie, when the sky was purple and so on.

I learned my lesson in the Canadian elections this year. The pollsters were so wrong it wasn't even funny. They had the Conservatives polling higher than the liberals, poised to form a minority government, only days before the election. Turns out the Liberals essentially routed them.
Are the polls 100% correct all the time? No. They wouldn't be polls if that was the case. When the polls show Kerry in the lead, I accept that it is an accurate representation of the people being polled. All I ask is the same when the President is in the lead. The polls are all we have to go on until Tuesday.
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Old 10-25-2004, 06:54 PM   #35
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Australian elections went differently though
> Incumbent conservative government that went into Iraq, opposition party supported pulling troops out.
> New young and dynamic opposition leader versus old and loathed by the media PM.
> PM lost the debate according to the studio audience.
> Polls were "tied" right to election day.
> Government picks up seats and gains a majority in the senate.

But the system is entirely different than the American Electoral College so yeah.

Now there were major factors behind it, the opposition blames a scare campaign on interest rates etc. but the result was what it was.
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Old 10-25-2004, 06:54 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally posted by drivemytrabant


I love the tactic of "oh well if the polls don't go for my guy they must be false and we shall ignore them."
You obviously didn't read the rest of the post.

An 11% change in a day is impossible in Ohio. And Kerry could not possibly be leading by 5% in Colorado, nor could Bush be leading by 6% in New Mexico.

It's not a matter of "my guy" not being ahead.

It's a matter of shitty polling.
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Old 10-25-2004, 06:59 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally posted by drivemytrabant
When the polls show Kerry in the lead, I accept that it is an accurate representation of the people being polled. All I ask is the same when the President is in the lead.
When your "lead" is within the margin of error, it is not actually a lead at all. It is meaningless. That constitutes basic statistics.

For example, I work in cancer research. If I am testing a blocker which kills 73% of cancer cells +/- 5%, but it also kills 69% of healthy cells, it is completely useless and means nothing at all.
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Old 10-25-2004, 07:02 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC


You obviously didn't read the rest of the post.

An 11% change in a day is impossible in Ohio. And Kerry could not possibly be leading by 5% in Colorado, nor could Bush be leading by 6% in New Mexico.

It's not a matter of "my guy" not being ahead.

It's a matter of shitty polling.
The point is that you assume that the poll that gave Kerry the lead was right in the first place--thus giving you the 11 point margin. If you wanna look at it the way you are, then perhaps that poll was inaccurate and this one is dead on. But instead you just assume that the Zogby poll must be the wrong one because the President is ahead. I think what the polls are showing is that Ohio is gonna be close--whoever wins--and we are gonna have an interesting Tuesday evening.
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Old 10-25-2004, 07:02 PM   #39
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The best way to pick it is to look at where they are campaigning and putting the advertising, because all that reflects internal party polling.
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Old 10-25-2004, 07:03 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
The best way to pick it is to look at where they are campaigning and putting the advertising, because all that reflects internal party polling.
I agree with you 100%.

Which is why I believe Bush may be conceding Ohio and concentrating on WI, MN, IA, FL. Follow the money, as they say.
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Old 10-25-2004, 07:05 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally posted by anitram


When your "lead" is within the margin of error, it is not actually a lead at all. It is meaningless. That constitutes basic statistics.

For example, I work in cancer research. If I am testing a blocker which kills 73% of cancer cells +/- 5%, but it also kills 69% of healthy cells, it is completely useless and means nothing at all.
Well if you wanna get technical, the Zogby poll has the President leading in Ohio 47% 42% +/- 4. So it indeed does show the President with a one point lead even assuming the full margin of error.
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Old 10-25-2004, 07:14 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally posted by drivemytrabant


The point is that you assume that the poll that gave Kerry the lead was right in the first place--thus giving you the 11 point margin. If you wanna look at it the way you are, then perhaps that poll was inaccurate and this one is dead on. But instead you just assume that the Zogby poll must be the wrong one because the President is ahead. I think what the polls are showing is that Ohio is gonna be close--whoever wins--and we are gonna have an interesting Tuesday evening.
I assume the Zogby poll is incorrect because of the extreme fluctuations from the previously established data.

Every single poll for the past 2 months has shown Bush ahead in Colorado by more than 5%, including the most recent. Then all of a sudden Kerry has a lead of 5%.

Every single poll for the past month has shown Kerry ahead in New Mexico by about 3%-5%. All of a sudden, Bush is ahead by 6%.

Doesn't that make you sketchy at all? It's not just Ohio I'm looking at here, although you seem to be.

It doesn't matter anyways. Kerry will win Pennsylvania, Iowa and Ohio, and most likely Florida too if the undecideds do in fact break 2-1 (or even if they go 5-3). Bush NEEDS to basically make a home in Florida for the next week and open up a lead of at least 5% there, or Kerry is the winner, not only of Florida, but the whole Presidency.

The story of today that almost 350 tonnes of explosives went missing in Iraq due to gross incompetence can't help Bush either.

As long as there are no major gaffes, or Osama doesn't magically appear over the next week, Kerry has won the election.

And you can quote me on that. In fact, if someone wants to bet with me, I'll be more than happy to take you up on that.
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Old 10-25-2004, 07:38 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC


I assume the Zogby poll is incorrect because of the extreme fluctuations from the previously established data.

Every single poll for the past 2 months has shown Bush ahead in Colorado by more than 5%, including the most recent. Then all of a sudden Kerry has a lead of 5%.

Every single poll for the past month has shown Kerry ahead in New Mexico by about 3%-5%. All of a sudden, Bush is ahead by 6%.

Doesn't that make you sketchy at all? It's not just Ohio I'm looking at here, although you seem to be.

It doesn't matter anyways. Kerry will win Pennsylvania, Iowa and Ohio, and most likely Florida too if the undecideds do in fact break 2-1 (or even if they go 5-3). Bush NEEDS to basically make a home in Florida for the next week and open up a lead of at least 5% there, or Kerry is the winner, not only of Florida, but the whole Presidency.

The story of today that almost 350 tonnes of explosives went missing in Iraq due to gross incompetence can't help Bush either.

As long as there are no major gaffes, or Osama doesn't magically appear over the next week, Kerry has won the election.

And you can quote me on that. In fact, if someone wants to bet with me, I'll be more than happy to take you up on that.

Yes I was just talking about Ohio. I have not studied the consistencies between other polls on a week to week basis. However, I don't believe that a 10% swing in polling samples of 1500-3000 is necessarily very drastic at all depending on what part of a battleground state the poll is concentrated in. This is, after all, why they are battleground states to begin with. I do believe that Kerry will win Pennsylvania--but it will be close and I believe that is in part because the Heinz name is not all that beloved in Pittsburg--I live about 2 hours from there and Teresa is effecting this election in that area of the state. But even if that were not the case--PA was also quite close in 2000. Iowa is VERY close now and was in 2000 when Gore won the state. Bush carried Ohio in 2000--again by a slim margin. If Kerry were to win all of these states--Bush can still win by nailing down Florida and a few other key battlegrounds like Arkansas and Wisconsin. So I tend to agree that between Florida and Ohio--Florida is the more important "get" for the President. As far as a wager--I'm broke or I'd take you up on it.
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Old 10-25-2004, 07:56 PM   #44
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ok, polls are wrong. I want to get back to something Drummer said about Clinton going out to campaign. does anyone else see this as a negative? I mean, no one protested when Carter campaigned for Kerry. and why isn't the last Republican president -- bush Sr. -- campaigning for his son? Heck, he wasn't even allowed to address the Republican convention. what does that say about him?
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Old 10-25-2004, 08:05 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally posted by sharky
ok, polls are wrong.
Here are some numbers--decide for yourself the validity of polling:


Gallup Poll Accuracy Record

First number is the last Gallup poll--the second is the actual count--the third is the difference between the two.

2000
Bush 48.0 47.9 +0.1
Gore 46.0 48.4 -2.4
Nader 4.0 2.7 +1.3

1996
Clinton 52.0 49.2 +2.8
Dole 41.0 40.7 -0.3
Perot 7.0 8.4 -1.4

1992
Clinton 49.0 43.3 +5.7
Bush 37.0 37.7 -0.7
Perot 14.0 19.0 -5.0

1988
Bush 56.0 53.9 +2.1
Dukakis 44.0 46.1 -2.1

1984
Reagan 59.0 59.2 -0.2
Mondale 41.0 40.8 +0.2

1980
Reagan 47.0 50.8 -3.8
Carter 44.0 41.0 +3.0
Anderson 8.0 6.6 +1.4
Other 1.0 1.6 -0.6

1976
Carter 48.0 50.1 -2.1
Ford 49.0 48.1 +0.9
McCarthy 2.0 0.9 +1.1
Other 1.0 0.9 +0.1
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