Bush Pulls Ahead In National Polls For First Time All Year - LA Times - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 08-26-2004, 04:59 PM   #1
The Fly
 
odowdpa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 215
Local Time: 11:46 AM
Bush Pulls Ahead In National Polls For First Time All Year - LA Times

Bush is getting hot at the right time and with the convention right around the corner, things are looking good for the GOP. However, I can't stress how important Florida is for both candidates.

LA Times Poll Shows Bush Leading Kerry


LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - President Bush has pulled ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry for the first time this year in a Los Angeles Times poll, the newspaper reported on Wednesday in its online edition.

The survey taken Saturday through Tuesday showed that 49 percent of registered voters favored Bush, while 46 percent preferred Kerry. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Survey responses indicated that Kerry had been hurt by attacks on his Vietnam service record by Bush backers, the Times said.

In a poll taken just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry had a 2 percentage point lead over Bush, the newspaper said.


The Times Poll interviewed 1,597 adults nationwide, including 1,352 registered voters.



08/26/04 02:46
__________________

__________________
odowdpa is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 05:23 PM   #2
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
DrTeeth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: The Q continuum
Posts: 4,770
Local Time: 05:46 PM
__________________

__________________
DrTeeth is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 05:26 PM   #3
Refugee
 
ThatGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Vertigo
Posts: 1,277
Local Time: 08:46 AM
Meh. Kerry had a pre-convention bounce, too.

Plus, it's still within the margin of error.

And it contradicts this poll from The Economist, which is also still within the margin of error.
__________________
ThatGuy is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 05:34 PM   #4
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Popmartijn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 32,543
Local Time: 05:46 PM
Lately, I've found this site more useful (thanks to DaveC): http://www.electoral-vote.com
And for those who like Republican-slanted sites: http://www.electionprojection.com/

Here it seems Kerry still has a small advantage. It appears he may even win the elections if he loses Florida and Ohio (as long as he doesn't lose anything else).

C ya!

Marty
__________________
Popmartijn is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 05:42 PM   #5
The Fly
 
odowdpa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 215
Local Time: 11:46 AM
This is going right down to the wire. I just read some other polls that just came out, Bush was up in a CNN Gallop Pole, but was down by a percent in a poll by George Washington Univ.

I know all these nat'l polls are just fodder and that its the state polls that hold water, but its interesting to read about them.

Another great site (independent from a party) is:
www.rasmussenreports.com

68 days...
__________________
odowdpa is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 06:07 PM   #6
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 04:46 PM
With the ultra liberal LA Times giving Bush the lead, it is definitely not good news for Kerry.

As it stands, Bush is ahead in most polls even prior to the start of the convention. The Republicans have an opportunity to open up a solid lead with the convention. The Democrats do not have any other similar media event coming before the election unless you consider the debates. Regardless of the party, your in trouble if you need the debates to lift you over the top.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 06:14 PM   #7
Refugee
 
ThatGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Vertigo
Posts: 1,277
Local Time: 08:46 AM
So is it good news for Bush when Fox News shows Kerry ahead?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,130234,00.html

It's too close to call for now. But as an incumbent Bush sould be polling higher than he is now.
__________________
ThatGuy is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 06:44 PM   #8
BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
 
BVS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: between my head and heart
Posts: 40,698
Local Time: 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by STING2
The Democrats do not have any other similar media event coming before the election unless you consider the debates. Regardless of the party, your in trouble if you need the debates to lift you over the top.
Shouldn't the debates be a deciding factor. Up to this point it's basically a popularity contest. Yes some American such as most on this board may know where they stand on real issues but I dare say the majority of the population really don't, the debates are a platform designed to give the public a fair and balanced look at the canidates. I think this election will come down to the debates. We'll see if Bush can hold on to any lead after that.
__________________
BVS is online now  
Old 08-26-2004, 07:19 PM   #9
The Fly
 
odowdpa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 215
Local Time: 11:46 AM
It's going to be very interesting to see if Bush gets the convention bounce. If he gets 4-5 points, it could open the whole thing up. However, everyone thought Kerry would get a bounce and we all saw what happened. Something very similar could happen to Bush. Time will tell on that one.
__________________
odowdpa is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 08:41 PM   #10
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by ThatGuy
So is it good news for Bush when Fox News shows Kerry ahead?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,130234,00.html

It's too close to call for now. But as an incumbent Bush sould be polling higher than he is now.
Really, what do you think that incumbent from the 1948 presidential election would have to say about that?


Or

That incumbent in the 1916 election?
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 08:44 PM   #11
Refugee
 
ThatGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Vertigo
Posts: 1,277
Local Time: 08:46 AM
I don't know. What were the poll numbers in 1948 and 1916?
__________________
ThatGuy is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 09:18 PM   #12
Blue Crack Addict
 
verte76's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: hoping for changes
Posts: 23,331
Local Time: 04:46 PM
TG, in 1948 and 1916 incumbents got re-elected, but in extremely close elections. In fact, there's the infamous newspaper headline from 1948 that falsely claims that Dewey beat Truman. It was *that* close. I'm not sure there's any certain things you can say about incumbency other than it's usually an advantage. I'm not sure that's true these days. People have a heck of alot of more trouble trusting politicians these days than they used to. Watergate had a hell of alot to do with this, it sort of shattered a more innocent view of politics that we had before it. We may be living in an era of one-term presidents. This would actually be really awful if you ask me, but it doesn't mean it won't happen.
__________________
verte76 is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 09:29 PM   #13
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 8,876
Local Time: 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by ThatGuy
I don't know. What were the poll numbers in 1948 and 1916?
Both were very close elections where the incumbent barely won. There was one paper that reported that Dewey had defeated Truman in 1948. The point here is that incumbents have been in close elections and won.
__________________
STING2 is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 09:34 PM   #14
Blue Crack Addict
 
deep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,501
Local Time: 08:46 AM
Nobody likes my predictions.

My hunch is that W wins with around 300 electoral votes


On the nation wide popular vote. He wins by about 3-5 per cent.


That is my handicapping as of now.
__________________
deep is offline  
Old 08-26-2004, 11:15 PM   #15
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
kobayashi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: the ether
Posts: 5,142
Local Time: 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by STING2
Regardless of the party, your in trouble if you need the debates to lift you over the top.
why cant debates be a deciding factor?

im not certain it is what you were alluding to, but it seems to me that american political discourse has always been averse to issues/policy discussions in open forum via a frank manner.

a public sphere let down...
__________________

__________________
im the candyman. and the candyman is back.
kobayashi is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:46 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com