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Old 09-17-2004, 05:11 PM   #1
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Bush Bounce Keeps On Going!

"President leads Kerry by 13 points among likely voters; 8 points among registered voters"


by David W. Moore


"GALLUP NEWS SERVICE"

"PRINCETON, NJ -- In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13066
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Old 09-17-2004, 05:12 PM   #2
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That's 1 poll. Many others such as Pew and Harris show strikingly different results.
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Old 09-17-2004, 05:13 PM   #3
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"Latest Showdown State Poll Results
Bush leads in Wisconsin, Kerry in Michigan; Minnesota tied"


by Jeffrey M. Jones

"CNN/USA Today/Gallup’s three latest “showdown states” polls show mixed results in three key Midwestern states -- President George W. Bush has a lead in Wisconsin, Democratic candidate John Kerry leads in Michigan, and Minnesota is tied. The available data in Wisconsin and other showdown states indicate that Bush’s support has increased following the Republican convention. These polls also suggest that if the election were held today Bush could win the electoral votes of three states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota) that Al Gore won in 2000."


http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/login.aspx?ci=13057
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Old 09-17-2004, 05:16 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by U2democrat
That's 1 poll. Many others such as Pew and Harris show strikingly different results.
Gallup has a longer and better track record and is more respected.

Fact: The candidate ahead in the GALLUP poll on Labor day has won 13 of the last 17 Presidential elections. Now that were at the 6 week mark, this is not good news for Kerry.

Even if the Gallup poll was a bit off, NO Candidate has ever won the presidency when they were down in the Gallup poll by 13 points or more, 6 weeks from the date of the election.
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Old 09-17-2004, 05:23 PM   #5
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Fact: On 10/26/2000 Gallup showed Bush ahead in their national poll 52 to 39. Did Al Gore make up ten points in two weeks?

Fact: Gallup's polling method assumes that on election day 40% of voters will be Republican while 33% will be Democrats, even though that's historically inaccurate.
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Old 09-17-2004, 05:37 PM   #6
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What is with your Gallup fetish anyways?

3 other major polls were released today: all three showed a dead heat, or results that were within the margin of error.

Gallup seems to be using some fishy polling. Maybe push polling?
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Old 09-17-2004, 06:08 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC
What is with your Gallup fetish anyways?

3 other major polls were released today: all three showed a dead heat, or results that were within the margin of error.

Gallup seems to be using some fishy polling. Maybe push polling?
Gallup has been doing polling longer than most other polling groups and is probably the most respected polling group if you had to pick one.
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Old 09-17-2004, 06:22 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by ThatGuy
Fact: On 10/26/2000 Gallup showed Bush ahead in their national poll 52 to 39. Did Al Gore make up ten points in two weeks?

Fact: Gallup's polling method assumes that on election day 40% of voters will be Republican while 33% will be Democrats, even though that's historically inaccurate.
On the first "Fact", yes for a day during the 2000 election, a poll was a little off. The poll posted above was over three days though.

Not everyone who is registered Republican or regestered democrat vote for their party's candidate. In addition, Gallup is attempting to determine likely voters and and registered voters in their polling. The recent poll finds a ratio of 40% to 33% for Republicans and Democrats respectively. As long as they did it scientifically the results are accurate. They do not go into the polling saying, lets pick 4 Republicans, 4 Democrats and 2 Independents.

Naturally, Democrats hate anything that shows John Kerry doing poorly, so obviously Gallup is now apart of that vast "right wing conspiracy".
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Old 09-17-2004, 06:24 PM   #9
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i respect gallup, i just find it odd that it's reporting very different results from the majority of other polls
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Old 09-17-2004, 06:32 PM   #10
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the latest poll by ...oh dear I can't remember they full name...
it's BDI and stands for Business D ?__{daily}__ Index {i think-- it's a newspaper or specialty magazine, that's consideredconservative} reposts K&B in statistical deadheat.

For all Bush's Gazillions so far to be N&N is not a good thing for Team Bush.

Go K & E!
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Old 09-17-2004, 06:46 PM   #11
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I respect Gallup. With that said, Bush did have a huge comeback late in his run in year 2000 and polls with a month and half to go can change a lot. Bush and co. though should be happy and confident going into the debates.
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Old 09-17-2004, 06:52 PM   #12
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It looks like Kerry's criticism of the day strategy isn't working.....
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Old 09-17-2004, 10:40 PM   #13
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From today's Wall St. Journal, which most people would consider conservative:

"Gallup explains it has what it considers a time-tested formula for determining most likely voters. It asks eight questions, such as current intensity of interest, past voting behavior and interest, and whether you know where your voting place is.

"We've discovered that if we ask a set of more indirect questions, we can better predict who is or is not likely to vote," Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, has said.

But there is reason to suspect those criteria are outdated, especially in an election where both sides say the intensity level is much higher than four years ago and get-out-the-vote organizations are considerably better than ever -- few people on Nov. 2 will be in the dark on where the voting polls are.

"A formula that made sense years ago may not recognize all the changes in society," notes Mr. Hart. "It gives more credence to past behavior and too little to current interest.""

The problem with Gallup is that while it was once respected, it hasn't changed with the times. As mentioned up-thread, the results are weighted with Republicans. In addition, this poll had a small sample size -- only 800, which pushed up the margin of error. And this is only a phone poll. Alot of younger people, myself included, rely solely on our cell phone, which we never receive poll calls on.

I would suggest you look at Zogby polls, which seem to be taking a better cross-section for its polls. Zogby combines traditional polls with email polls to get to a larger group of voters. And generally, because of their larger pool, they have a smaller margin of error.

Gallup is one of a few respected polls -- others include Zogby and Harris. Both of those polls have the race in a dead heat. Gallup is an outlier and they need to change their polling system or risk looking like a bunch of idiots come Election Day.

And of course, this is a national poll. National polls are a waste of time in this election. Because of the closeness of the race, it's all about the state polls.
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Old 09-18-2004, 01:24 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by sharky
From today's Wall St. Journal, which most people would consider conservative:

"Gallup explains it has what it considers a time-tested formula for determining most likely voters. It asks eight questions, such as current intensity of interest, past voting behavior and interest, and whether you know where your voting place is.

"We've discovered that if we ask a set of more indirect questions, we can better predict who is or is not likely to vote," Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, has said.

But there is reason to suspect those criteria are outdated, especially in an election where both sides say the intensity level is much higher than four years ago and get-out-the-vote organizations are considerably better than ever -- few people on Nov. 2 will be in the dark on where the voting polls are.

"A formula that made sense years ago may not recognize all the changes in society," notes Mr. Hart. "It gives more credence to past behavior and too little to current interest.""

The problem with Gallup is that while it was once respected, it hasn't changed with the times. As mentioned up-thread, the results are weighted with Republicans. In addition, this poll had a small sample size -- only 800, which pushed up the margin of error. And this is only a phone poll. Alot of younger people, myself included, rely solely on our cell phone, which we never receive poll calls on.

I would suggest you look at Zogby polls, which seem to be taking a better cross-section for its polls. Zogby combines traditional polls with email polls to get to a larger group of voters. And generally, because of their larger pool, they have a smaller margin of error.

Gallup is one of a few respected polls -- others include Zogby and Harris. Both of those polls have the race in a dead heat. Gallup is an outlier and they need to change their polling system or risk looking like a bunch of idiots come Election Day.

And of course, this is a national poll. National polls are a waste of time in this election. Because of the closeness of the race, it's all about the state polls.
Most people that are young do not vote, so the whole cell phone thing is overblown. The Zogby polls predicted a McCain victory over Bush in 2000. Gallup showed the reality though. I really thought McCain had good chance of stealing the nomination from Bush based on the Zogby polls. After that, Gallup became the poll I watched the most.

Gallup has a longer and better track record than any polling institution in the world and just because Dem's feel the results of the poll threatened them does not mean they should start attacking it as part of a vast "right wing conspiracy".

Even if this current poll has some error's, Gallup has not all of a sudden become this irrelevant dinosour that some here suggests. A million miles from that. The Kerry campaign should definitely be concerned. Based on the shake up of their campaign staff, they do take the results from Gallup seriously.
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Old 09-18-2004, 07:17 AM   #15
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Actually, I hope that Bush takes this poll's results to heart.

OVERCONFIDENCE has most times led to the forerunner's demise as voters think that he is so far ahead of his opponent that there is no reason to vote for the poll leader.

It's kinda like the Aesop fable of "The Tortoise and the Hare".

So, go ahead and think you're that far ahead of your opponent, Mr. Bush. And see where that overconfidence will get you.

DEFINITELY TIME FOR REGIME CHANGE....
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