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Old 09-20-2004, 04:17 PM   #31
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Just heard on the radio Bush may be clsoing in on NJ and on NY....numbers on the rise. I have no survey to quote...but if it is true....it is not good for JK
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Old 09-20-2004, 04:24 PM   #32
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Bush is only 4-5 point behind in New York. Gore won NY by what, 20 points?
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Old 09-20-2004, 04:35 PM   #33
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The most current state polls for these North Eastern States that Kerry Must win are:

New York: Kerry 48% Bush 40% Marist College poll

New Jersey: Bush 49% Kerry 45% USA Survey poll

Pennsylvania: Bush 47% Kerry 45% Keystone poll


Even if Kerry were to win these states, he could still lose the election. Losing any of these states would kill his election chances. The last one of these States to vote Republican was Pennsylvania and that was in 1988. This should be solid democratic territory, but Kerry is going to have to fight hard in order to win them.
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Old 09-20-2004, 07:31 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally posted by STING2
The most current state polls for these North Eastern States that Kerry Must win are:

New York: Kerry 48% Bush 40% Marist College poll

New Jersey: Bush 49% Kerry 45% USA Survey poll

Pennsylvania: Bush 47% Kerry 45% Keystone poll
Zogby, which has more experience than Keystone with polling, shows PA as Kerry 50.6%, Bush 47.5% according to a poll released TODAY on the Wall Street Journal's web site -- a supposedly "conservative" newspaper.

If we are going to talk about the legitimacy of one poll or another, you can't keep choosing which ones favor you. Sting, by your own account, the polls you cited are wrong because they aren't Gallup polls. The Zogby poll I cited is wrong because it's not Gallup. I don't trust those as far as I can throw them.

When Election Day rolls around, NY and NJ will be solidly in Kerry's camp. I live in NYC where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 5-to-1. There are not enough Republicans outside the city to sway it into Bush's column. And those in the city are passionate about Kerry. We will all be showing up on Election Day to the polls even if the final tally is a blow-out for Kerry. We weren't able to vote in the primaries on 9/11 because of the terrorist attacks that day, but the primaries were rescheduled and we voted. No one will dissuade us from voting including some stupid outlier of a poll.
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Old 09-20-2004, 08:14 PM   #35
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Originally posted by sharky


Zogby, which has more experience than Keystone with polling, shows PA as Kerry 50.6%, Bush 47.5% according to a poll released TODAY on the Wall Street Journal's web site -- a supposedly "conservative" newspaper.

If we are going to talk about the legitimacy of one poll or another, you can't keep choosing which ones favor you. Sting, by your own account, the polls you cited are wrong because they aren't Gallup polls. The Zogby poll I cited is wrong because it's not Gallup. I don't trust those as far as I can throw them.

When Election Day rolls around, NY and NJ will be solidly in Kerry's camp. I live in NYC where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 5-to-1. There are not enough Republicans outside the city to sway it into Bush's column. And those in the city are passionate about Kerry. We will all be showing up on Election Day to the polls even if the final tally is a blow-out for Kerry. We weren't able to vote in the primaries on 9/11 because of the terrorist attacks that day, but the primaries were rescheduled and we voted. No one will dissuade us from voting including some stupid outlier of a poll.
The polls I listed were used by the pro Kerry electoral-vote.com website. I have never said that just because a poll is NOT Gallup that it is wrong. I have only said that overall Gallup is the most reliable of all the polling organizations. Please stop twisting more words!

The Keystone polling group I believe only polls in Pennsylvania unlike Zogby, so I would not be so quick to discredit their results. In any event, the latest Gallup poll for Pennsylvania shows the same results as Keystone.

I do not pick polls that simply favor my candidate. I even started a thread back late fall or early winter that was titled I believe like : "this should warm most people's hearts in here" It was a thread done about and early Gallup poll that had nearly a 10 point lead for John Kerry over Bush. Another Gallup poll done at the end of the Primary's had Kerry up by 8 points! Each time, I sited that and explained that if the economic situation did not start to improve quicker for Bush, that Kerry was going to win with a good margin.

I'm trying to estimate who is going to win, regardless of who I want to win. The fact is, its the past 7 weeks have been very good for Bush and not very good for Kerry, and the poll I feel that is most accurate and that I have been looking at the whole time has swung in favor for Bush.

Gallup did not have Bush ahead earlier this year. So please stop this nonsense that I only report polls that show Bush is in the lead. I follow the poll or polls I feel are most accurate in determining the outcome of the election.

The Democrats won New York State by 25 points in 2000! Even if the current poll for New York is incorrect, Kerry is still far behind as for as the level of his lead in New York State compared to Al Gore's lead in 2000 and he should be concerned about that.

In New Jersey, AL Gore won by 16 points, and now several polls show Bush with a LEAD! Even if there really is not a Bush lead, Kerry is struggling in the state and will have to spend resources there he never intended to.

Al Gore won Pennsylvania by 4 points in 2000, but now most polls show Bush with a slight lead, including Gallup. That is not good.

Kerry has not ignored the facts, which is why there has been a major shake up in his campaign.

The last ZOGBY poll on September 10 had Bush ahead by 4 points! Here is a qoute from John Zogby himself:

"Pollster John Zogby: “The Kerry fizzle is striking. He receives only 77% support from Democratic Party voters and has a 7-point lead in the blue states (47%-40%), as compared to Bush’s 13-point lead in the red states (51%-38%). The fact that Bush is getting 15% of Democrats and 15% of liberals should be troublesome. Bush leads again among Catholics (48%-40%) whereas Kerry had a double-digit lead among them in August. The fact that 10% of African Americans say that they are ‘not sure’ is dangerous for Kerry."
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