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Old 09-18-2004, 07:52 AM   #16
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More Gallup rants:

Go here first: http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

Then click on this link: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and read the news of the day.

So much for that track record eh?
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Old 09-18-2004, 07:55 AM   #17
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As well, none of these polls count overseas voters: foreign nationals, troops, etc. and I've been told that the majority of overseas voters are Democratic-leaning.
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Old 09-18-2004, 08:00 AM   #18
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More proof that Gallup is a right-wing organization:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/16/212615/645

Look just at the very top post, the rest is reaction posts.

In case you can't see it, James Clifton, Gallup's CEO is an official GOP donor.
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Old 09-18-2004, 08:07 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC
More proof that Gallup is a right-wing organization:
That does not have to say anything. Zogby is also Republican, but his polls do have a different outcome than Gallup's. Based on the information I read (on http://www.electoral-vote.com) I do think that Gallup makes some errors in normalising the results. That 40% Republican is a bit high, I think.

C ya!

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Old 09-18-2004, 09:04 AM   #20
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Originally posted by STING2
Most people that are young do not vote, so the whole cell phone thing is overblown. The Zogby polls predicted a McCain victory over Bush in 2000. Gallup showed the reality though. I really thought McCain had good chance of stealing the nomination from Bush based on the Zogby polls. After that, Gallup became the poll I watched the most.
Actually, political analysts are predicting this year will have the largest young voter turn out since the amendment was passed in to give them the right to vote.

As for McCain, alot of people thought he was going to win before Bush started going negative in 2000. And I wouldn't be surprised if Gallup predicted a McCain win as well as a Dean win this year.

Fact of the matter remains that Gallup is an outlier right now.

<b>Pew Research</b>
Bush 46%
Kerry 46%

<b>Harris</b>
Bush 47%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%

"Based on who he is and his record, do you think George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years?"
Does 45%
Does not 51%
Not sure 4%
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Old 09-18-2004, 09:36 AM   #21
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perhaps Bush should have worn a helmet during his bounce 4 years ago
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Old 09-18-2004, 10:32 PM   #22
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Salome -

I was thinking along those lines too!

Overconfidence is a dangerous thing - it often backfires on you. No one should think this election is over. There's a LOT MORE that will happen between now and November.

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Old 09-19-2004, 04:06 PM   #23
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If Bush were down 13 points in the latest Gallup poll, I would be very concerned. This is not about being overconfinent, this is a poll by perhaps the most reputable polling organization that is now having liberals attempt to discredit it because they do not like what they see.

If, Bush does when the election, I cannot wait to hear all the BS attempts to discredit his victory!

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Old 09-19-2004, 04:09 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally posted by DaveC
More Gallup rants:

Go here first: http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

Then click on this link: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and read the news of the day.

So much for that track record eh?
Gallup has an excellant track record regardless of any liberal attempts to discredit simply because they don't like what they see.

I see your bible for predicting the election, electoral-vote.com has Bush with 331 electoral votes to Kerry's 207! Maybe Gallup underestimated Bush's lead currently.

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Old 09-19-2004, 05:56 PM   #25
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I don't doubt that Bush is pulling ahead. They (the Bush campaign) since the Convention have been pulling their most successful card at every opportunity (fear) while the Kerry Campaign just seems hopeless. I guess the hope would be that seeing Bush pulling ahead will motivate more lethargic anti-Bush people to get out and vote for Kerry on the day. I guess the fear works both ways
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Old 09-19-2004, 08:24 PM   #26
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Originally posted by Earnie Shavers
I don't doubt that Bush is pulling ahead. They (the Bush campaign) since the Convention have been pulling their most successful card at every opportunity (fear) while the Kerry Campaign just seems hopeless. I guess the hope would be that seeing Bush pulling ahead will motivate more lethargic anti-Bush people to get out and vote for Kerry on the day. I guess the fear works both ways
Except the thing is, you have liberals bashing the idea that Bush is ahead at all, which defeats the purpose of getting lethargic anti-Bush voters out there. Another theory which is one many liberals fear, is that poor poll numbers for Kerry may keep casual supports of Kerry home as they may feel the election is over.

The election is not over at all, but Kerry has a very tough battle if he wants to win. Bush right now is definitely in the drivers seat, but its not over. If the Gallup poll is the most accurate, which I suspect it is, then Bush could not be realistically in a better position than he is right now. I smelled trouble for Kerry after the polling done after the Democratic convention at the beginning of August, and for the past 6 weeks, everything has indicated that is indeed the case.

Kerry came from behind to beat Dean though in the primary's and this election is definitely not over. But history shows that his position currently in the polls at this time, does not favor a victory for him.

That electoral-vote.com site has Kerry with 207 Electoral votes to Bush's 331. Kerry cannot win the election without winning Pennsylvania and New Jersey and Kerry is behind in multiple polls in both states. Kerry new he would have to spend to insure winning Pennsylvania and now he is behind there. Kerry never anticipated he would have to spend any money to win New Jersey and now he will have to make a serious effort. This is money that was supposed to go to taking away places like Ohio, Florida and Missouri from the Republicans.
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Old 09-19-2004, 08:45 PM   #27
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As a liberal, I'm not bashing the fact that Bush is ahead. I'm bashing the fact that someone would use one poll as an end all be all. Harris and Pew Research are also very reputable. How do you refute the numbers they have?

You keep spouting off these vague statements -- "oh, the liberals just want to bash Bush." So tell me, using actual facts, why the numbers I mentioned above were wrong? Are you saying two very professional polls are wrong because they don't show Bush ahead. It's the pot calling the kettle black.
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Old 09-19-2004, 09:25 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally posted by sharky
As a liberal, I'm not bashing the fact that Bush is ahead. I'm bashing the fact that someone would use one poll as an end all be all. Harris and Pew Research are also very reputable. How do you refute the numbers they have?

You keep spouting off these vague statements -- "oh, the liberals just want to bash Bush." So tell me, using actual facts, why the numbers I mentioned above were wrong? Are you saying two very professional polls are wrong because they don't show Bush ahead. It's the pot calling the kettle black.
I have already gone to great detail to explain why I trust Gallup over any other polling organization that is out there. Gallup has been doing polling longer than anyone and has a better reputation for quality work than any other single polling organazation out there.

Look at www.electoral-vote.com. It is site run by a John Kerry supporter. Currently as of Sunday Sept. 19, Bush has a lead of 331 Electoral Votes to Kerry's 207. Which poll, the Gallup poll or the Harris and Pew Poll, do you think best reflects Bush's 124 electoral vote lead?

I don't think the election is over by any means and I never said that Gallup was 100% perfect. But I do think that Gallup has been consistently over the years, the most accurate and credible polling organization out there, based on the elections I have seen and the results of Gallup polls. Gallup has a longer history of consistent and quality polling than any other polling organization in the world.

If you think Gallup is way off the mark, why do you think Kerry has changed his campaign organization. You only make changes this late in a campaign if your in trouble. Kerry is in trouble but he still does have a chance to win. But if he wants to win, he has a lot of work to do and no media event camparable to a convention to help him.
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Old 09-20-2004, 07:33 AM   #29
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Kerry had a bad August -- everyone agrees. He got bogged down with the stupid Swift Boat ads. So be it -- he changed his campaign to back on message.

As for the Electoral Vote site, you can't compare that to any national polls. Electoralvote.com is strictly state polls. If we went by national polls, Gore would be president right now. You can't compare the two.
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Old 09-20-2004, 04:06 PM   #30
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Kerry had a bad August -- everyone agrees. He got bogged down with the stupid Swift Boat ads. So be it -- he changed his campaign to back on message.

As for the Electoral Vote site, you can't compare that to any national polls. Electoralvote.com is strictly state polls. If we went by national polls, Gore would be president right now. You can't compare the two.
There is actually some information from the Pew Center poll that supports the results in the Gallup poll.

"The Pew Center conducted two waves of polling over a seven-day period between September 8 and Tuesday."

"IN THE FIRST WAVE, BUSH HAD A DOUBLE DIGIT LEAD, but by the final wave of polling, the race had become a dead heat, indicating that the president's momentum had eroded."

"The Gallup Poll, which showed no erosion of momentum, was conducted at roughly the same time as the second wave of polling done by the Pew Center."

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...lls/index.html

This suggest that the Pew Center may have made a mistake in its "Second Wave" of polling.

The national poll and the electoral votes are comparable to a certain degree. If someone is behind in most state polls, there is no way they are going to be competitive in a national poll.
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