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Old 09-03-2004, 10:02 PM   #1
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Bounce

Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead

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TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader
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Old 09-03-2004, 10:26 PM   #2
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Re: Bounce

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Originally posted by nbcrusader
Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead


hmmmm.....that would be great, but I'm going to wait until I see the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP poll which should release their weekend survey Sunday night.
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Old 09-04-2004, 01:18 AM   #3
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I saw that, I was very happily surprised when I saw it, but let's be realistic, that can't be correct. I think Bush is up by about 5 points, thats the # I have seen and heard most.

What the GOP has to do is just downplay the bounce and keep doing what they are doing. They can't think this thing is over, by any means.
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Old 09-04-2004, 06:43 AM   #4
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those who plan to vote for Ralph Nader - what are they thinking ??

if they dislike bush and kerry equally, they can as well abstain and make no difference to the election...

or they can chose between Bush and Kerry and make their vote count..
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Old 09-04-2004, 09:29 AM   #5
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Someone sent me that TIME poll in an e-mail yesterday. They did that during the Convention, before Bush's speech. I don't know what to think. Other polls, like Rasmussen, Zogby and others have closer numbers, four and two point leads for Bush, respectively, from Rasmussen and Zogby. However, they haven't reflected any possible post-convention bounces I don't think. I agree with Sting, let's see what Gallup says. Not exactly wonderful news for a Kerry supporter, but it's life.
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Old 09-04-2004, 11:57 AM   #6
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55 % approval rating too.
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Old 09-04-2004, 12:33 PM   #7
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I read an article on Gallups' site yesterday about post-convention bounces. I think it was the Gallups site, anyway. It could have been Zogby, sometimes my memory screws me. Anyway, it described a bounce as something with a beginning and an end. But this is a very positive development for Bush, and I'm sure they're happy and these are tough days for Kerry, to say the least. If the voters are giving Bush a 55% job approval rating, that's bad news for the Dems as well. But I think it's a bit early for us to completely throw in the towel and raise a white flag or whatever. This game ain't over.
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Old 09-04-2004, 01:25 PM   #8
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some here may want to start ducking for cover if this trend continues.....

NEWSWEEK POLL: REPUBLICAN CONVENTION 2004


Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 Percent; in a Three-Way Trial Heat,
Bush/Cheney Receive 13-Point Margin Bounce

Bush Approval Rating Rises to 52 Percent; First Time Above 50 Since January;
Majority (53%) Wants to See Him Re-Elected-Highest Since May 2003
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Old 09-04-2004, 01:42 PM   #9
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I just got this thing on an e-mail also. It's a good day to work on my research site.
*running for cover*
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Old 09-04-2004, 07:24 PM   #10
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It's way too early at this point. I'm not taking polls seriously until october, and the polls i'm taking most seriously will be occuring on Nov. 2nd. I mean come on...Kerry was behind AL SHARPTON in polls during the primaries..................
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Old 09-04-2004, 08:44 PM   #11
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But Al Sharpton and Howard Dean are shall we say a little "easier" to defeat than Bush, Kerry was in by default.
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Old 09-04-2004, 08:47 PM   #12
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Originally posted by A_Wanderer
But Al Sharpton and Howard Dean are shall we say a little "easier" to defeat than Bush, Kerry was in by default.
This is true, i'm just saying that if he could come back from being 20-30 points behind in 1 day who knows what he can do when he's down.
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Old 09-05-2004, 12:22 AM   #13
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This campaign is a long ways from over. There's still the debates.
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Old 09-05-2004, 02:28 AM   #14
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Still waiting for the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP poll in order to determine what the results of the convention are. Its still a long way to go, but there are no multi-media events that are the same in impact as the conventions. The debates are important, but the other guy is there to rebut everything your candidate says so it doesn't have the impact of the multi-night convention which is a one sided selling of the party's candidate.
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Old 09-05-2004, 06:31 AM   #15
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True, Sting. A convention is like an "info-mercial"; the debates are not. What the debates do do is give the candidates a chance to differentiate themselves, explain something of their position on the issues, and then voters decide what they like and don't like about what they hear. It'd be crazy to conclude they don't have any impact. Quite often throughout the history of presidential politics they've made an impact of some sort. Kerry has come back before, but he's never run against Karl Rove. My favorite blogger likes to say "don't panic" but that's a tall order right now.
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