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Old 06-04-2006, 10:13 PM   #91
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As for the statistics about the number of people who would get sick, it comes from one of the links that was posted up there. I can't remember which one, I've seen these figures several times actually. I think its basically and extrapolation based on the figures from the 1918 flue. Population then was 100 million, now its 300 million, so they just multiplied the figures times 3. One thing they did not have in 1918 are all these drugs. Then again, while in 1918, the movement of soldiers aided the spread during World War I, transportation today is so massive on a global scale now that I think the spread would be much faster.

Many people have said this would last a year, mainly because that is what happened in 1918. But back in 1918, there was no airline industry. In fact, there were not nearly as many motor vehicles either. It seems like its possible that given todays level of transportation, the spread would be far faster, but perhaps that would mean the length of the pandemic would be shorter as well.
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Old 06-04-2006, 11:30 PM   #92
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Quote:
Originally posted by Teta040
AliEnvy, any chance you can link to that Toronto Star report? There has to be an online version.
It was a whole separate section full of articles from Sat., May 27th - I didn't keep it so I don't have any specific links. You can check thestar.com to see what related articles are probably still in the archives.

Although since bird flu is only one of a myriad of doomsday horrors that currently loom over humanity I'm guessing a bit of google research would pull up all the same information...like joyfulgirl's links in the first post(s).
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Old 06-04-2006, 11:46 PM   #93
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Originally posted by 4U2Play

As of now, there is a severe shortage of Tamiflu and Relenza, to the point that some countries are saying that they will defy Roche's and Glaxo's patent claims in order to mass produce generic versions of the antivirals should a pandemic break out, but I'm afraid it will be too little, too late.
The shortage is due to limited organic production of a key ingredient - some plant grown in the Himalayas or something like that - not patent protection.

I'd caution people who want to buy it online...there is plenty of counterfeit Tamiflu being sold that way.
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Old 06-06-2006, 09:25 PM   #94
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Has anyone here thought about growing their own food as opposed to stocking large amounts of cans and packaged foods? I guess back in 1918 a lot of people could live off of what they grew in their own garden. You had the garden for food, and water from the underground well.
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Old 08-28-2007, 06:12 PM   #95
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So it's finally been confirmed today that the mysterious cluster of bird flu deaths in one Indonesian family last year did in fact happen as a result of human-to-human transmission, which anyone who has been following this story already knew. Now with bird flu in Bali, and at least one death there without an obvious link to infected birds, are we on the verge of a pandemic? I mean, like, for real?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0828154944.htm
Humans Spread Bird Flu To Humans in Indonesia

Science Daily — In the first systematic, statistical analysis of its kind, infectious-disease-modeling experts at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center confirm that the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in 2006 spread between a small number of people within a family in Indonesia. The findings, by biostatistician Ira M. Longini Jr., Ph.D., and colleagues, will be published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/Cris...toryId=JAK4320
Indonesia still probing source of bird flu death
Thu 12 Jul 2007 11:29:13 BST

JAKARTA, July 12 (Reuters) - Medical officials in Indonesia are still trying to pinpoint the source of infection after a 6-year-old boy died of bird flu at the weekend, a health official said on Thursday.

The boy, from the city of Cilegon in Banten province, suffered from high fever and breathing difficulties before he died of multi-organ failure on Sunday.

Contact with infected fowl is the most common way for humans to contract the H5N1 virus, but so far no clear link in this case has been established, officials said.

It is always a concern when the cause of a human infection cannot be traced as it makes infection control more difficult.
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