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Old 06-03-2006, 10:29 AM   #76
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Originally posted by maycocksean


Probably not much more than He usually does. I'm not sure where we got the idea that God is supposed to stop all "natural catastrophies" and other horrific events that kill many. He never made any such commitments or promises.

Behind the whole question of "where is God" in the face of disaster is the implication that a loving God should protect people from dying in disasters. But if you take this thought just a little further it doesn't really make sense. Under what circumstances is God "allowed" to let people die? What is it about natural disasters or disease pandemics that make us demand God's action.? Is death okay if it happens only to one person at a time or in small groups? Is death okay if doesn't make the news? Let's say that He should protect people from all natural disasters. Is it okay for them to die in car crashes then? No? Well, then he should protect people from accidents also? What about illnesses and diseases? What about murders? Old age? What we we're really saying is that God should grant His creations immortality and immunity from the consequences of their actions on both a personal or global scale. That's the tall order behind the questiion "what is Jesus doing about it?"

And for those who don't believe in God at all, I'm not sure what's the point in complaining. It's like me complaining that Santa Claus only comes once a year.
It's just one of the many absurdities of the man created God, if we really live in this cellestial North Korea of an omnipotent and omnicient benevolent God then why would this creator allow such a horrible thing as HIV to exist, more the point why would it create it, say what you will about those who say it is God wreaking revenge against the sinful masses but at least their theology justifies or is even justified by the existence of terrible things in the world, it is not an abberation to such a worldview, an evil that is a good deal more honest than some softer approaches. Thankfully the softer non-literalist approach allows peoples humanist impulses to shine though, a person who can suffer a crisis of faith is oribably much better than one with an immutable faith.
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Old 06-03-2006, 08:10 PM   #77
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(I'm including the whole article instead of just a link because otherwise it requires registration to read.)

Human Flu Transfers May Exceed Reports
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: June 4, 2006
The New York Times

In the wake of a cluster of avian flu cases that killed seven members of a rural Indonesian family, it appears likely that there have been many more human-to-human infections than the authorities have previously acknowledged.

Until recently, World Health Organization representatives have said there were only two or three such cases. On May 24 Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, estimated that there had been "at least three." Then, last Tuesday, Maria Cheng, a W.H.O. spokeswoman, said there were "probably about half a dozen." She added, "I don't think anybody's got a solid number."

And Dr. Angus Nicoll, chief of flu activities at the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, acknowledged that "we are probably underestimating the extent of person-to-person transmission."

Most clusters are hard to investigate, he said, because they may not even be noticed until a victim is hospitalized, and are often in remote villages where people fear talking. Also, he said, by the time doctors from Geneva arrive to take samples, local authorities "have often killed all the chickens and covered everything with lime."

The W.H.O. is generally conservative in its announcements and, as a United Nations agency, is sometimes limited by member states in what it is permitted to say about them.

Still, several scientists have noted that there are many clusters in which human-to-human infection may be a more logical explanation than the idea that relatives who fell sick days apart got the virus from the same dying bird.

For example, in a letter published last November in Emerging Infectious Diseases analyzing 15 family clusters from 2003 through mid-2005 in Southeast Asia, scientists from the disease control centers, the W.H.O. and several Asian health ministries noted that four clusters had gaps of more than seven days between the time family members got sick. They questioned conventional wisdom that only one, the Bangkok office worker, was "likely" human-to-human.

In one Vietnam cluster, not only did a young man, his teenage sister and 80-year-old grandfather test positive for A(H5N1) avian flu, but two nurses tending them developed severe pneumonia, and one tested positive.

In another questionable case, the Vietnamese government's assertion that a man developed the flu 16 days after eating raw duck-blood pudding was publicly ridiculed by a prominent flu specialist at Hong Kong University, who said it was more likely that he got it from his sick brother.

Dr. Henry L. Niman, a biochemist in Pittsburgh who has become a hero to many Internet flu watchers and a gadfly to public health authorities, has argued for weeks that there have been 20 to 30 human-to-human infections.

Dr. Niman says the authors of the Emerging Infectious Diseases article were too conservative: even though the dates in it were fragmentary, it was possible to infer that in about 10 of the 15 cases, there was a gap in onset dates of at least five days, which would fit with the flu's incubation time of two to five days.

And in a study published just last month about a village in Azerbaijan, scientists from the W.H.O. and the United States Navy said human-to-human transmission was possible. That conclusion essentially agreed with what Dr. Niman had been arguing since early March — that it was unlikely that seven infections among six relatives and a neighbor, with onset dates stretching from Feb. 15 to March 4, had all been picked up from dying wild swans that the family had plucked for feathers in a nearby swamp in early February.

While Dr. Niman is an irritant to public health officials, his digging sometimes pushes them to change conclusions, as it did in the recent Indonesia case. The W.H.O. at first said an undercooked pig might have infected the whole family, but Dr. Niman discovered that the hostess of the barbecue was sick two days before the barbecue and the last relative was infected two weeks after it.

His prodding, picked up by journalists, eventually led the W.H.O. to concede that no pig was to blame and that the virus probably had jumped from human to human to human.

The health organization's periodic updates on the number of avian flu cases and the death toll concentrate on cases confirmed by laboratories. The updates use no names and are often cleared by the affected country's health minister.

Dr. Niman, by contrast, trolls local press and radio reports and uses Google software to translate them — sometimes hilariously — looking for family names, onset dates and death dates.

For example, a May 15 report quotes a village midwife named Spoilt describing the death of a woman in Kubu Sembilang, Indonesia and the hospitalization of one of her sons:

"Praise br Ginting experienced was sick to last April 27 2006, with the sign of the continuous high fever to the temperature of his body reached 390 C was accompanied by coughs... Added Spoilt, second casualties Roy Karo-Karo that also the son of the uterus from Praise br. Gintin after his mother died last May 3, also fell ill, afterwards was reconciled to RSU Kabanjahe."

Dr. Niman contends that the largest human-to-human cluster so far was not in Indonesia, but in Dogubayazit, Turkey, in January. W.H.O. updates recorded 12 infected in three clusters, and quoted the Turkish Health Ministry blaming chickens and ducks. Dr. Niman counted 30 hospitalized with symptoms and said the three clusters were all cousins with the last names of Kocyigit and Ozcan, and that most fell sick after a big family party on Dec. 24 that was attended by a teenager who fell sick on Dec. 18 and died Jan. 1.

A patriarch, Dr. Niman said, told local papers that the two branches had had dinner together six days after the 14-year-old, Mehmet Ali Kocyigit, had shown mild symptoms. He died on Jan. 1, and several other young members of the two families died shortly after, with other relatives showing symptoms until Jan. 16. No scientific study of that outbreak has been released.

Dr. Niman also said clusters were becoming more frequent, especially in Indonesia. Just last week two more emerged there, one including a nurse whose infection has not yet been confirmed. With 36 deaths, Indonesia is expected to eclipse Vietnam soon as the world's worst-hit country.

Dr. David Nabarro, chief pandemic flu coordinator for the United Nations, said that even if some unexplained cases were human-to-human, it does not yet mean that the pandemic alert system, now at Level 3, "No or very limited human-human transmission," should be raised to Level 4, "Increased human-human transmission."

Level 4 means the virus has mutated until it moves between some people who have been only in brief contact, as a cold does. Right now, Dr. Nabarro said, any human transmission is "very inefficient."

Level 6, meaning a pandemic has begun, is defined as "efficient and sustained" human transmission.

Ms. Cheng of the W.H.O. said that even if there were more clusters, the alert would remain at Level 3 as long as the virus dies out by itself.

"A lot of this is subjective, a judgment on how efficiently the virus is infecting people," she said. "If it becomes more common, we'd convene a task force to raise the alert level.
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Old 06-03-2006, 08:14 PM   #78
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Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht
Has anyone here started to stock up on specially prepared and packaged food that can last for several years? I think that would be the real sign that there is a crises coming.
*raises hand*

Me and many, many people I know.
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Old 06-03-2006, 09:24 PM   #79
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I've always stored bottled water. It's something my father became paranoid about during the war and it's been 15 years and he's still stocking cases of it diligently. He also has a case in the trunk of his car and I've often asked him why not just keep a few bottles since a whole case pretty much boils in the summer, but he can't be deterred so it's probably psychological.

You should have 4 litres per person per day for at least 3-4 days stored, as per the Red Cross, and don't keep old water around more than 6-9 months.
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Old 06-04-2006, 12:02 AM   #80
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Originally posted by joyfulgirl


*raises hand*

Me and many, many people I know.
So just how much food do you have saved up? How many days worth?
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Old 06-04-2006, 10:36 AM   #81
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Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht

So just how much food do you have saved up? How many days worth?
I urge you all to read Secretary of Health & Human Services' Michael Leavitt's speech from the New Hampshire summit a few weeks ago. He is going state-to-state urging people to prepare. Doesn't that sound like they believe it's imminent? It isn't a matter of preparing for a few days. If there is a worst-case scenario pandemic like in 1918, you won't want to leave the house at all for possibly months. That is how people in 1918 survived. No one knows yet whether this will be a mild pandemic like the Hong Kong flu, or one as bad as or worse than the 1918 one. But Leavitt's speech was chilling. "A pandemic would not be three hellish days and then moving into recovery. It would be literally a year," he said.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/health/.../20leavitt.htm

Here's an excerpt where he talked about how fast it spread in 1918:

In the state of Massachusetts, the great pandemic struck. On August the 27th, the first cases were found – two sailors at Commonwealth Pier. The next day, there were eight cases. The day after that, there were 60 cases. Within two weeks, 2,000 people were suffering with the influenza. On the 8th of September, it struck Camp Devens, where there were 50,000 soldiers.

I found an account by a physician whose name only I know to be Roy. I don't know any more about him, but he obviously was there to attend soldiers who had been struck. I'd like to read something from his journal, and I'd like to tell you, this is a rather graphic description, but it's important to understand that what we're talking about here isn't just the flu. This is a killer disease.

He said this epidemic started four weeks ago and has developed so rapidly that the camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till it passes. These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of influenza, and when they're brought to the hospital, very rapidly they develop the most vicious type of pneumonia that I have ever seen. Two hours after admission, they have mahogany spots over their cheeks. In a few hours you can begin to see the cyanosis extending from their ears all over their face until they can hardly be distinguished from the colored men – when you can hardly distinguished the colored men from the white.

It's only a matter of hours until death comes, and it's simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand to see one, two or 20 men die; but to see these poor devils dropping like flies sort of gets on your nerves. We've been averaging about 100 a day, and it just keeps coming.

By the time the pandemic had stopped in Massachusetts, 45,000 people had died.


I think Bush knows how serious this is. He asked Congress for $7.1 billion to jump start our bird flu preparedness program. Congress approved half that amount.

Yes, I just said something nice about Bush.
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Old 06-04-2006, 11:27 AM   #82
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Originally posted by Blackberry
I agree with this statement that this will happen and human get from human, but they will make the vaccine for it and dont let the flu spread too much. Where the human flu will be developed, many will die ...no doubt. In a little while...I think in autumn or winter.
As of now, there is a severe shortage of Tamiflu and Relenza, to the point that some countries are saying that they will defy Roche's and Glaxo's patent claims in order to mass produce generic versions of the antivirals should a pandemic break out, but I'm afraid it will be too little, too late.

As someone else pointed out earlier, look how many people around the world still contract AIDS, which is rather difficult to get compared to Avian Flu. Even if "they make the vaccine for it", it is possible that millions of people will never get it in time, especially in Africa and parts of Asia.

If that occurs, even if a large percentage of North Americans and Europeans are vaccinated, governments would still be forced to shut down their borders, causing massive economic damage throughout the world (and you think the US-Mexico border issue is a political ploy now? Things might get much more complicated and nasty).

Also, even if I was vaccinated, I would still not venture out in public for awhile if a pandemic was underway. I suspect many others would follow suit. Paranoid, maybe, but vaccinations are not 100% fullproof, so why take a chance.

A pandemic won't hit this winter, it might take a few more years, but I am glad to see everyone here taking this seriously and preparing themselves, just in case.

Please consider stocking up now. At least have enough to protect everyone in your immediate family. The prices will only get higher:

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=...oogle&ct=title
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Old 06-04-2006, 01:59 PM   #83
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Originally posted by joyfulgirl


I urge you all to read Secretary of Health & Human Services' Michael Leavitt's speech from the New Hampshire summit a few weeks ago. He is going state-to-state urging people to prepare. Doesn't that sound like they believe it's imminent? It isn't a matter of preparing for a few days. If there is a worst-case scenario pandemic like in 1918, you won't want to leave the house at all for possibly months. That is how people in 1918 survived. No one knows yet whether this will be a mild pandemic like the Hong Kong flu, or one as bad as or worse than the 1918 one. But Leavitt's speech was chilling. "A pandemic would not be three hellish days and then moving into recovery. It would be literally a year," he said.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/health/.../20leavitt.htm

Here's an excerpt where he talked about how fast it spread in 1918:

In the state of Massachusetts, the great pandemic struck. On August the 27th, the first cases were found – two sailors at Commonwealth Pier. The next day, there were eight cases. The day after that, there were 60 cases. Within two weeks, 2,000 people were suffering with the influenza. On the 8th of September, it struck Camp Devens, where there were 50,000 soldiers.

I found an account by a physician whose name only I know to be Roy. I don't know any more about him, but he obviously was there to attend soldiers who had been struck. I'd like to read something from his journal, and I'd like to tell you, this is a rather graphic description, but it's important to understand that what we're talking about here isn't just the flu. This is a killer disease.

He said this epidemic started four weeks ago and has developed so rapidly that the camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till it passes. These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of influenza, and when they're brought to the hospital, very rapidly they develop the most vicious type of pneumonia that I have ever seen. Two hours after admission, they have mahogany spots over their cheeks. In a few hours you can begin to see the cyanosis extending from their ears all over their face until they can hardly be distinguished from the colored men – when you can hardly distinguished the colored men from the white.

It's only a matter of hours until death comes, and it's simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand to see one, two or 20 men die; but to see these poor devils dropping like flies sort of gets on your nerves. We've been averaging about 100 a day, and it just keeps coming.

By the time the pandemic had stopped in Massachusetts, 45,000 people had died.


I think Bush knows how serious this is. He asked Congress for $7.1 billion to jump start our bird flu preparedness program. Congress approved half that amount.

Yes, I just said something nice about Bush.
So how much food have you saved up? How many days worth, if you don't mind me asking?
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Old 06-04-2006, 02:52 PM   #84
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As of now, there is a severe shortage of Tamiflu and Relenza, to the point that some countries are saying that they will defy Roche's and Glaxo's patent claims in order to mass produce generic versions of the antivirals should a pandemic break out, but I'm afraid it will be too little, too late.

As someone else pointed out earlier, look how many people around the world still contract AIDS, which is rather difficult to get compared to Avian Flu. Even if "they make the vaccine for it", it is possible that millions of people will never get it in time, especially in Africa and parts of Asia.

If that occurs, even if a large percentage of North Americans and Europeans are vaccinated, governments would still be forced to shut down their borders, causing massive economic damage throughout the world (and you think the US-Mexico border issue is a political ploy now? Things might get much more complicated and nasty).

Also, even if I was vaccinated, I would still not venture out in public for awhile if a pandemic was underway. I suspect many others would follow suit. Paranoid, maybe, but vaccinations are not 100% fullproof, so why take a chance.

A pandemic won't hit this winter, it might take a few more years, but I am glad to see everyone here taking this seriously and preparing themselves, just in case.

Please consider stocking up now. At least have enough to protect everyone in your immediate family. The prices will only get higher:

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=...oogle&ct=title
Here are some things we should all know about this Tamiflu.


"LEAVITT: Tamiflu is an antiviral medication. It is one type of antiviral that has shown effectiveness against the H5N1 virus. It's important to understand its virtues and its limits."

"First, its virtues. It has shown in large – in circumstances that if it is given within 24 to 48 hours at the time a person begins to manifest a system, that it has a substantial impact on the length of time people have symptoms and the nature of their symptoms. That's all very good."

"The – in terms of the potential downsides, there is no guarantee that Tamiflu will be effective under the mutated version of the virus, whatever it is that ultimately triggers a pandemic, and therefore, there's another – it's important that it be recognized as a treatment and not as a prophylaxis. It does have a preventative quality when it's taken every day, but that would mean a person, in order to have protection, would have to take one Tamiflu tablet every day for a year. We have no idea what type of impact that would have on a human body. There's no certainty that that would be safe, and there's no certainty that it would ultimately have the desired impact."


A lot of information covers what governments at various levels should be doing. There seems to be little information about what a single individual or a single family should be doing to prepare. Should a family of four purchase 20,000 dollars worth of food that can last for a year? Eventually, all that food will get to old to eat, even if its specially made and prepared. If the pandemic does not come for five years, then you have spent thousands of dollars on food that you won't be able to use by then.
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Old 06-04-2006, 03:02 PM   #85
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Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht

So how much food have you saved up? How many days worth, if you don't mind me asking?
I don't know. Haven't counted and haven't finished. Just doing something each day, and going about my life. But we're looking at months, not days.

Here's a site with some good info:
http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n...lyPreparedness
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Old 06-04-2006, 03:15 PM   #86
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I don't know. Haven't counted and haven't finished. Just doing something each day, and going about my life. But we're looking at months, not days.

Here's a site with some good info:
http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n...lyPreparedness
I would think you might have some general idea, do you have 7 days worth, a month, 3 months, 6 months? I can't imagine where one would find the space to store 6 months worth of food. Even such "non-perishable" food would eventually be to old I think. If such supplies could last for 20 or 30 years, it makes perfect sense to build such a massive stockpile. But if you have to keep replacing a stockpile that large every 3 years, that could get a bit crazy financially.

Remember, no one really knows when a pandemic would hit. Your one year supply of stuff, may be to old if the pandemic strikes 15 years from now.

One thing we should remember is that even in the worst cased senerio projected, 70% of the population would not even get sick. Only 15% would have to go to the hospital at any point. Only slightly more than a half percent would die, but in a country of 300 million people, thats 2 million people.
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Old 06-04-2006, 06:09 PM   #87
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Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht


I would think you might have some general idea, do you have 7 days worth, a month, 3 months, 6 months?
What difference does it make? Why do you keep asking me? If I knew I would tell you. I said "months" and I'm not going to go count it out for you right now so back off.
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Old 06-04-2006, 06:19 PM   #88
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What difference does it make? Why do you keep asking me? If I knew I would tell you. I said "months" and I'm not going to go count it out for you right now so back off.
oops, I missed where you said "months". I only asked out of curiousity because I did not know anyone who had made such preparations yet.
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Old 06-04-2006, 06:23 PM   #89
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Originally posted by Maoilbheannacht
One thing we should remember is that even in the worst cased senerio projected, 70% of the population would not even get sick. Only 15% would have to go to the hospital at any point. Only slightly more than a half percent would die, but in a country of 300 million people, thats 2 million people.
This is an excellent point, perhaps you could provide a reliable source for this info?

The percentage of people who might die from the Avian Flu are actually quite low, I've read, but it won't take much to scare the bejeebers out of everyone... remember SARS and how much of an effect that relatively minor epidemic had on certain Asian economies, populations and governments.

There were a total of 8437 known cases of SARS, with 813 deaths (a mortality rate of 9.636%). Eventually, the WHO wiped it out, only the second disease in human history to be eradicated (the other was smallpox), though I suspect the CDC and other labs keep samples around.

If Avian Flu ever mutates into a human-to-human virus, there will be a huge run on Tamiflu, Relenza and surgical masks, depleting government stockpiles, leaving billions of people around the globe without any sort of protection or treatment whatsoever.

Imagine what would happen if everyone stayed in their homes for six months. Crime, pollution and war would decline; divorce, drug use and book sales would rise.
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Old 06-04-2006, 10:02 PM   #90
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This is an excellent point, perhaps you could provide a reliable source for this info?

The percentage of people who might die from the Avian Flu are actually quite low, I've read, but it won't take much to scare the bejeebers out of everyone... remember SARS and how much of an effect that relatively minor epidemic had on certain Asian economies, populations and governments.

There were a total of 8437 known cases of SARS, with 813 deaths (a mortality rate of 9.636%). Eventually, the WHO wiped it out, only the second disease in human history to be eradicated (the other was smallpox), though I suspect the CDC and other labs keep samples around.

If Avian Flu ever mutates into a human-to-human virus, there will be a huge run on Tamiflu, Relenza and surgical masks, depleting government stockpiles, leaving billions of people around the globe without any sort of protection or treatment whatsoever.

Imagine what would happen if everyone stayed in their homes for six months. Crime, pollution and war would decline; divorce, drug use and book sales would rise.
Can you honestly say you have 6 months of food stored in your house so you won't have to leave it for that length of time? The fact is, stockpiling that amount of food is a big expense and would take up significant space. If people wait until the pandemic has really started, it will be impossible for each household to run out and purchase that much food. The Stores would be depleted quickly.

The fact is, people are going to have to leave their homes I think. They won't have enough provisions when it starts, and there will probably be restrictions on the amount of food you can buy at one time.

6 months of food for a family of four would be several thousand dollars. I suppose if you only had to buy and stockpile it once, that would not be that big of an expense. But what happens if the Pandemic does not hit for another 5, 10 or 15 years? Are you going to crack open that 15 year old box of cheerios and dig in? In reality, a permanent home fort strategy would probably involve the purchase of 6 months of "non-perishable" food every couple of years probably. Suddenly, your families annual food bill per year would go up by as much as 25% to 50%, depending on the need to replace old stockpiles as time goes by.

The real question is, is there "non-perishable" food out there that can last for decades? I read something about specially prepared MRE's, but the shelf life on them is only 3 years.
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