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Old 03-08-2008, 06:29 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally posted by Strongbow
These results show Obama keeping the all the Blue battleground states and picking up the red battle ground states of Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado which is enough for an electoral victory

Clinton loses almost every battleground state, red or blue, except for the two blue battleground states of New Hampshire and Michigan, and in those states only a by a small margin.
Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on these polls, deep?
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Old 03-09-2008, 10:26 AM   #17
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Hopefully the Democrats will carry Ohio this time. If Kerry had carried Ohio he'd be president now.
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Old 03-09-2008, 03:01 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26
Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on these polls, deep?

this poll is 8 months before the election


8 months back
in August, Rasmussen had polls, too


most likely they said Rudy would be the GOP nom
McCain was probably in 3rd or 4th?


the same polls said Rudy beats Hillary

I have always said Rudy was a zero






it may disappoint many,
but, I see McCain’s odds going way up.


I still believe McCain can beat Obama,
much more easily than Hillary
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Old 03-09-2008, 03:03 PM   #19
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Where does this belief come from if not from the polls?
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Old 03-09-2008, 03:06 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by verte76
Hopefully the Democrats will carry Ohio this time. If Kerry had carried Ohio he'd be president now.
any rational, objective person should conclude that

Hillary has a much better chance of carrying both Ohio and Florida


and that really is the whole election.


and yes,

I realize the "hate" factor in Alabama against Hillary is real strong
but Alabama, along with SC and a few more states will go GOP no matter.


I wonder what Arkansas polls look like with Hillary - McCain vs Obama - McCain ?(I think McCain, most likely wins both)
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Old 03-09-2008, 03:18 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26
Where does this belief come from if not from the polls?
last August they said Rudy was a lock


I knew he was a zero, had no record, and would not look that good in the debates

but the polls, the polls!!

Rudy will be the nominee!!!

it is a lock!!!

and he will beat Hillary !!!


well, because I am an old bastard, (even though I don't look it)

I have been watching and following these elections for years

I have learned how the process works
and where these things will go


Obama has the ability to get the nomination,
especially the way the Democratic Party has set up the process.

It is far from democratic or proportionately representative.


Should he get the nomination, the emotions and passion from his loyal followers and true believers, will not be enough to get the 271 electoral votes.

Most likely McCain will go over 300.
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Old 03-09-2008, 03:25 PM   #22
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So, all you're basing this off is having seen a lot of elections?

To be honest, all I see is you being frustrated that Obama can stir people into interest. You seem consistently have much less substance to offer than Obama. All you say is, "He's got fanatics, it won't last!" You don't even seem to be anti-Obama as much as you are anti-Obama supporter.

Yet, Hillary consistently shows up as the most polarizing, the much more likely to lose. Yeah, she may win Ohio, but she's going to lose other states that went blue. The polls show it. You don't think McCain will bury her for lack of experience? For a dirty campaign?

Bottom line: McCain beats Clinton. Obama beats McCain. The polls show it, most people believe it.
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Old 03-09-2008, 03:31 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26
You don't even seem to be anti-Obama

as much as you are anti-Obama supporter.

Thank you for saying that

I am not anti-Obama

very good chance he will be a excellent candidate with more on his resume'

there should and will be many more opportunities for him

if he loses to McCain, he will never get a second chance

I do have that concern.





Bottom line: Rudy beats McCain. Rudy beats Hillary. The polls show it, most people believe it. (Aug 2007- Jan 2008)

polls change

voting booth is poll that matters


last week all the polls

said Ohio was even, a toss up?

and Hillary won by 10 %
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Old 03-09-2008, 03:41 PM   #24
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You see, I don't think the Rudy comparison works, though. Ever since he entered, his stock dropped; he lost momentum. Obama has, almost constantly, gained momentum since he started.

What's to say he cannot gain momentum in the general election?
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Old 03-09-2008, 06:05 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26


Bottom line: McCain beats Clinton. Obama beats McCain. The polls show it, most people believe it.
Its far from being that cut and dry. Several national polls have shown McCain beating Obama and the latest poll in Pennsylvania has McCain beating Obama. The polls go up and down, but the basics of what will be important in November are still the same. Florida and Ohio are vital to Republican victory and Hillary is the stronger candidate than Obama overall in those races. For the Democrats, Pennsylvania is a must win state and here again Hillary in general is stronger there than Obama.

Obama's strength is the mid-west and some mountain states, but taking 5 red states in those area's would be completely offset by Republican victories in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Its close and while I used to think that Hillary would be the easier candidate to beat in the general election, I'm not so sure anymore. She could win by simply holding the blue states and picking up Ohio.
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Old 03-09-2008, 06:07 PM   #26
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bingo

or florida
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Old 03-09-2008, 06:21 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26
What's to say he cannot gain momentum in the general election?
the real irony here

is that McCain may barely take your state over Obama,
say by one or two per cent
and that could put him over the 271 electoral votes.

In the polls now
that you seem to have so much confidence in
McCain beats Obama in Penn
Hillary beats McCain in Penn

So give Penn to McCain?
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Old 03-09-2008, 09:56 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally posted by phillyfan26


What's to say he cannot gain momentum in the general election?
Well, you could argue that there aren't many places to get this momentum from. McCain could easily neutralize this momentum because of taxes alone.

In fact, McCain is a well known politician, very favorably looked upon and while he's in trouble for being in bed with Bush, is still seen as a straight shooter.

We simply don't know what Obama will be in November.
It's a gamble, one the Left has made over and over again and failed.

It's lost on people because of what occured afterwards but Bill Clinton was anything but a liberal in 1992, even if he smoked pot and was a draft dodger. His policies were moderate. Hillary is right there in league with him, she was a Goldwater girl in her youth. Obama is an old fashioned liberal, ala Al Gore and John Kerry.

This country leans right, no matter what you hear or read on FYM.
It's that simple. This said, conservative Democrats do well.
2006 was all about conservative Democrats.

Here in my home state of Oklahoma, we haven't gone Blue in the general election since 1960. Yet our Democratic Governor won 74 of 77 counties in 2006. Why? Well, the Reps were taking it up the ass everywhere, true, but the reason is because he is fairly conservative. In fact there are 53% registered Democrats in OK compared to 37% Republican. It's true in other southwestern and southern states as well. There are plenty of Democrats out there but they are either moderate or right leaning in these states.

Reagan Democrats were Conservative Democrats.
What gives anyone in their right mind the idea that Obama would have a similar following once the Republicans spend a few hundred million dollars expalining to the country how liberal he is?

Understand, I'm not using the term in the same fashion as the right wingers do, I'm a fucking social liberal myself. Proudly.

With the economy going in the tank, it should always benefit the Dems, especially with McCain having (very very stupidly, I might add) said that he didn't understand it, even if he was joking around. They have that sound clip to play ad nauseum.

The big lightning rod issue is taxes though. The easiest way to turn off a bunch of Reagan Democrats is to start talking about raising taxes. True, CLinton and Obama have the same tax policy (more or less), the point is, this idea that Obama is going to pull more from the middle is pretty specious.

He'll get an anti-war 'Reagan Democrat' voter (for one example) who listens to his speeches, who wants to break from the Bush/Clinton dynasty, who's motivated by change and he'll lose them to McCain because of taxes.

It's just one small example among others. While we see the dialogue around this election talk about absolutely meaningless bullshit, about campaign tactics etc. the big fucking elephant in the room is electability. Obama loses out to McCain in almost every moderate case. Immigration is negligible. Most of those Latinos are religous, socially conservative. McCain has the same position, essentially as Obama, what is the win? McCain trumps on abortion.

I could keep rattling on and on, the bottom line for me is, Obama has an electability problem against McCain. No different than Clinton's, so if this argument against Hillary (re: vs McCain) is rather objectively negated, then what else is there?

Polls are whatever you want them to be.
This week:

Newsweek: McCain 45 Obama 46// McCain 46 Clinton 48
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Old 03-12-2008, 04:44 PM   #29
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A bunch of new polls are in for key battleground states Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa. New Jersey although not a battleground state is unusually close based on current polling. Here is how these states break down with match ups of McCain vs. Obama and McCain vs Clinton in each state.


FLORIDA

McCain VS. Obama

Mason-Dixon 02/21 - 02/24 McCain 47% Obama 37%
Rasmussen 02/16 - 02/16 McCain 53% Obama 37%
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 McCain 41% Obama 39%

Average 02/06 - 02/24 - McCain beats Obama 47% to 37.7%


McCain VS. Clinton

RCP Average 02/06 - 02/24 - 47.3 41.7 9.3 McCain +5.6
Mason-Dixon 02/21 - 02/24 McCain 49% Clinton 40%
Rasmussen 02/16 - 02/16 McCain 49% Clinton 43%
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 McCain 44% Clinton 42%

Average 02/06 - 02/24 - McCain beats Clinton 47.3% to 41.7%




OHIO

McCain VS. Obama


Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 02/21 - 02/24 Obama 48% McCain 47%
Rasmussen 02/17 - 02/17 McCain 42% Obama 41%
SurveyUSA 02/15 - 02/17 Obama 47%McCain 44%
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 McCain 42% Obama 40%


Average 02/06 - 02/24 - Obama beats McCain 44% to 43.8%


McCain VS. Clinton


Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 02/21 - 02/24 McCain 51% Clinton 47%
Rasmussen 02/17 - 02/17 McCain 46% Clinton 43%
SurveyUSA 02/15 - 02/17 Clinton 52% McCain 42%
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 McCain 44% Clinton 43%

Average 02/06 - 02/24 McCain beats Clinton 46.3% to 45.8%



PENNSYLVANIA

McCain VS. Obama


Rasmussen 03/10 - 03/10 McCain 44% Obama 43%
Susquehanna 03/05 - 03/10 McCain 45% Obama 41%
Quinnipiac 02/21 - 02/25 Obama 42% McCain 40%
Franklin & Marshall 02/13 - 02/18 McCain 44% Obama 43%


Average 02/13 - 03/10 McCain beats Obama 43.3% to 42.3%


McCain VS. Clinton


Rasmussen 03/10 - 03/10 McCain 46% Clinton 44%
Susquehanna 03/05 - 03/10 Clinton 47% McCain 44%
Quinnipiac 02/21 - 02/25 Clinton 44% McCain 42%
Franklin & Marshall 02/13 - 02/18 McCain 46% Clinton 46%

Average 02/13 - 03/10 Clinton beats McCain 45.3% to 44.5%



NEW JERSEY

McCain VS. Obama

Rasmussen 02/27 - 02/27 McCain 45% Obama 43%
Fairleigh Dickinson 02/18 - 02/24 Obama 43% McCain 38%
Quinnipiac 02/13 - 02/18 Obama 46% McCain 39%

Average 02/13 - 02/27 Obama beats McCain 44% to 40.7%


McCain VS. Clinton

Rasmussen 02/27 - 02/27 Clinton 50% McCain 39%
Fairleigh Dickinson 02/18 - 02/24 Clinton 43% McCain 39%
Quinnipiac 02/13 - 02/18 Clinton 47% McCain 41%

Average 02/13 - 02/27 Clinton beats McCain 46.7% to 39.7%


IOWA

McCain VS. Obama

Selzer & Co (DMR) 02/17 - 02/20 Obama 53% McCain 36%
Rasmussen 02/18 - 02/18 Obama 44% McCain 41%
SurveyUSA 02/15 - 02/17 Obama 51% McCain 41%

Average 02/15 - 02/20 Obama beats McCain 49.3% to 39.3%


McCain VS. Clinton

Selzer & Co (DMR) 02/17 - 02/20 McCain 49% Clinton 40%
Rasmussen 02/18 - 02/18 McCain 47% Clinton 37%
SurveyUSA 02/15 - 02/17 McCain 52% Clinton 41%

Average 02/15 - 02/20 McCain beats Clinton 49.3% to 39.3%
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Old 03-12-2008, 04:53 PM   #30
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these polls are nice and all, but i think they are meaningless until the polled are able to make a direct one-on-one comparison between two candidates, and that won't start until the fall.

elections are about making a choice, about selecting one over the other.

and i do have a feeling that McCain is going to start looking very, very old in comparison to the two democrats.

but we shall see.
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