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Old 12-23-2004, 05:48 AM   #1
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Backing the revolution?

I was reviewing a few documents on the plausibility of the US supporting a coup in Iran agains the religious leadership and was wondering what people think about it in principle. Would it be feesible for the United States to give more active support to the anti-Mullah groups, perhaps in the event of a full scale uprising for the US to give aerial support should it be requested, or assist in assassination and sabotage again if it were requested. Basically any course of action that did not wind up putting on US troops on the ground in Iran but at the same time ensuring that minimal blood is shed by protecting them against the revolutionary guard.

The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting dramatically as we speak, Iraq is moving towards elections and the Shiites will be gaining a significant say, thankfully though Federalism will ensure that both Kurd and Sunni do retain representation. This is an Arab country mind you but when you consider the plausibility of a free Iran in the next decade or two the major powers in the ME are going to Shiite dominated countries (those Iranians my age on the whole have no great love for theocracy, political Islam will be relegated to the dustbin of history along with its ideological equals communism and fascism, it is entrely concievable that a peacefull revolution of liberalisation and secularism could take place over the course of a few years). This is a big threat to the Wahabi and Salafi elements within the Arab world, they are enemies of eachother and the Shiites are viewed by these schools as heretics. This will no doubt put significant pressure upon Sunni dominated states in the region and will increase unrest among Shiites living there. It will be interesting to see the world of 2024.

So what possible action would/should be given to the free Iran movement should they launch an uprising?
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Old 12-23-2004, 03:33 PM   #2
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I don't want to sound like I'm being too nitpicky, but Iran isn't an Arab country. It's Persian, and that's a whole different ethnic group. Their languages (there are a whole slew of Persian languages, closely related to the languages spoken in India) are part of the Indo-European family of languages. The Arabic languages are not, they are Semitic languages. It's confusing because of their alphabet, which I don't know anything about. OK, supporting their pro-democracy movement? Yes. Absolutely. They're willing to work to get rid of their reactionary government. The thing is, they want to do it themselves, and have others support what *they* do. I've been reading about this. They have some good ideas about what they want. It's sort of a delicate situation. They want a democracy, but it will be *their* democracy and they want to build it. They need someone like Ataturk, who was so great for Turkey. I hope they succeed, and I look forward to reading about fair elections in Iran.
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Old 12-23-2004, 04:54 PM   #3
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The Arab country in question was Iraq.
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Old 12-23-2004, 05:10 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
The Arab country in question was Iraq.
Doh!! Smartass me! I'd just come in from work where I had a veritable war with the mess in the juvenile animal book section.
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Old 12-23-2004, 05:15 PM   #5
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OK, on his site, Gandschi is very much in favor of the Iranians themselves doing the whole thing. He's a really bright guy, has a good grasp of really complex philosophical ideas (he particularly admires Spinoza) and might make a good president of Iran someday--if he can scrounge his way onto a ballot. How are we going to deliver fair ballots and elections to Iran? I don't think they want Western military intervention, and I really wouldn't support it. I don't think our military can do it, it's already stretched really thin in Iraq.
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Old 12-23-2004, 06:33 PM   #6
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Here's the link for Gandchi's site (yeah, I forgot how to spell the guy's name too) he's got some great ideas for Iranian democracy and secularism.

http://www.ghandchi.com/
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Old 01-28-2005, 04:18 AM   #7
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Read the article, do not shy away - its only words.

http://frontpagemagazine.com/Article...e.asp?ID=15280
Now tell me Iran was not better off under the Shah
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Old 01-28-2005, 08:01 AM   #8
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I don't know. That's really what I can say. I tend to think that Iraq's Shi'ite majority, along with cultural ties to Iran and importance it gives to their clerics will not want to create a secular nation. Saddam Hussein's Baath Party was, technically speaking, secular. Now that they have a chance to create a Muslim government, they might just do that.

In term of Iran? It's a precarious situation. It appears, from a Western POV, that few people seem to like the clerical establishment that really holds the power in the nation, but it is too powerful to topple. However, American intervention, if it is as sloppy and destructive as it was in Iraq, will probably backfire and the clerical establishment will suddenly shore up a lot more support from angry Iranians.

I think the only way it could be done is if the U.S. funds and arms a well-organized Iranian resistance group and lets them do it themselves.

Melon
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