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Old 04-19-2007, 06:05 PM   #61
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Originally posted by AEON

Tha chaos would become genocide.


there are over 4 million Iraqi refugees; 2 million have the means to leave, the other 2 million have fled to more ethnically friendly areas.

one could argue that we already have a genocide on our hands.
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:10 PM   #62
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That's not the issue on the table. The issue on the table is what would happen if the US military left right now.
And you don't think the two are related?
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:11 PM   #63
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The only way that your going to get peace in Iraq is if the coalition is allowed to complete the nationbuilding process and build a new government as well as a military that can provide for internal security within the country. Its exactly the same process that is under way in Afghanistan. It takes 10 plus years to complete such a task, and abandoning it now is certainly not in the interest of the Iraqi's, the region, and the United States.

Partition in Iraq will never work. The ethnic and religious groups are not as clearly divided as everyone thinks. There are certainly Sunni majority, Shia majority, and Kurdish majority area's, but even these area's have sizable minorities. In fact, only half of the country actually has area's where one ethnic or religious group forms a clear majority. The Iraq Study Group looked at the partition option and rejected it. Partition in fact, is the way to a real civil war.

Bosnia for example although it had an internal division between the Serb area and the Muslim/Croat area remained a united country. The Muslims and Croats were able to resolve their differences earlier. In fact, this year, all serbs, muslims and croats will serve in a unified Bosnian military which is remarkable given what happened in Bosnia in the early 1990s. Eventually, the remaining divisions will ceace to exist. It proves that all the assesments that Bosnia was an impossible situation that the United States and Europeans could not solve with military intervention were false. Bosnia had worse divisions and less history of being a country than Iraq, but today its a united country with a standard of living better than Brazil and Russia. Not bad for a country that not long ago had 10% of its population slaughtered and was refered to as the United States next Vietnam.

Afghanistan is larger than Iraq, has 20 ethnic groups and a much longer history, 5,000 years in fact, of warlordism and opposition to any sort of central government. Many people who live in southern Afghanistan don't recognize the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. So Iraq is actually in good shape compared to Afghanistan and Bosnia in terms of having a country with a real united history and the sense of being a member of that country as opposed to ones tribe or ethnic group.

Withdrawing coalition combat forces before Iraqi forces are ready to replace the task they peform on a daily basis will only give Sunni insurgents, Al Quada, and Shia Militia's more room and ease to conduct suicide bombings, plant IED's, and murder those they feel will be a threat to them once any pullout is complete. It does not make any sense to cripple the security situation for the Iraqi government and people, which is what a pre-mature pullout of US combat forces would do. It also makes it more difficult for US forces who remain in Iraq and will have less resources to deal with an increasingly demanding security situation brought on by the effects of a pre-mature pullout.

The Iraqi military needs at least another 4 years of training and development of a competent fighting force that can replace coalition forces that are withdrawn. A pre-mature withdrawal not only hurts the immediate security situation, it will hurt the Iraqi military as well, as confidence and the numbers of recruits will decrease. That will likely prevent the Iraqi military from developing beyond that point. As the security situation worsens with the rapid pre-mature withdrawal of all coalition combat forces, its potentially possible the Iraqi military would completely disolve. It will be at least 4 years before they can handle much of the day to day security situation to a degree that US combat troops could pull out, and it will take even more time to develop their own logistical support base to supply their forces. Right now, the coalition is the logistical support base for the Iraqi military.

The economic situation in Iraq, vital to any efforts to bring about peace and stability in the country, would be adversly effected by the worsened security situation brought on by a pre-mature withdrawal. Pre-mature withdrawal only makes the country less secure as coalition troops performing important security task are withdrawn and not sufficiently replaced because the Iraqi military is not ready. Politically, negotiation will prove impossible as Sunni insurgent groups double their efforts to prepare for the coming day when no coalition forces can stand in their way. This helps to spread the sectarianism that the coalition is trying to stop as these groups will suddenly feel empowered by a pre-mature withdrawal and an Iraqi military that is unable to stand on its own.

With the end of the Iraqi government and military, elements that could later threaten regional security will fight for control and will not be hindered in any way by Iraqi or coalition forces. Bosnia on an Iraqi scale would mean nearly 3 million dead within 4 years. On a Rwandan scale, perhaps 5 or 6 million dead in an even shorter time frame. Things may be terrible in Iraq at the moment, but their not even a fraction of how bad it could be.

In the middle of all this, Al Quada will finally have its new safe haven that it lost after the US invasion of Afghanistan. Al Anbar is not a safe haven for Al Quada at the moment because the 1st Marine MEF is there, but it will be a safe haven for them if Democrats in congress are able to force the 1st Marine MEF to withdraw by 2008. Giving Al Quada a safe haven to launch new 9/11's is not in the interest of the United States or any other country for that matter.

It is rather strange to see the unwavering committment by Democrats in Congress to keeping troops in place in Afghanistan where there is virtually no Al Quada activity and where Afghanistan's location, resources, and demographics make it a less important country to US security compared to Iraq. If the Democrats answer to the situation in Iraq is withdrawal, then they should have pressed for pulling US troops out of Afghanistan long ago.

Looking even further down the road, country's like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are unlikely to benefit from a security standpoint if a new dictatorship rises from the potential bloodbath following a pre-mature coalition withdrawal. While instability and refugee flows may stop, such a dictatorship could be potentially hostile to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia creating huge risk for the rest of the planet, as the planets energy reserves are once again threatened by a potentially undeterable regime.

If Iraq was located in another part of the world, away from vital energy reserves and other area's important to the global economy, chances are the United States could easily walk away from the conflict with little to worry about security wise. But given the growing dependence of the global economy on energy from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait just across the border, plus the potential creation of a new safe haven for Al Quada within Iraq, pre-mature withdrawal is not an option if one wants to prevent serious risk to US and global security.


Victory in Iraq and Afghanistan means developing a stable government that can protect itself and provide internal security without the presense of significant coalition combat forces. It takes years to develop that, and neither Iraq or Afghanistan are there yet. But provided the coalition continues to pursue effective nationbuiding and counterinsurgency tactics in both country's and provides the necessary resources, eventually Iraq and Afghanistan will develop the governments and security forces they need to stand on their own.

The United States staying power in both Iraq and Afghanistan is only limited by the political situation in the USA. From a financial perspective, the United States is still currently spending less on Iraq, Afghanistan, the entire US military, as a percentage of GDP per year than it spent in any year the United States was involved in the Cold War. In fact, its only spending 40% more than it did during the lightest year of the defense spending holidays of the 1990s.

If the United States withdraws prematurely, as could likely be the case given the political situation in the US, then the United States will likely face in the years following that withdrawal a whole number of different consequences that will likely at some point force it to send in troops again under far worse and more difficult circumstances. Iraq is not Somalia.
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:36 PM   #64
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It takes 10 plus years to complete such a task
And, apparently, 4 years to figure that out. Should have thought of that, I don't know, before invading?
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:44 PM   #65
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Since we have such a grand coalition, and the full support of the UN based on various resolutions.....

We should be able to leave and the coalition and the UN able to handle the job.

Or am I missing something?
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:45 PM   #66
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Originally posted by Earnie Shavers


And, apparently, 4 years to figure that out. Should have thought of that, I don't know, before invading?
Well, it doesn't really matter at this point HOW we got there or WHY we go there. What matters now is that we ARE there and we must do the right thing from this point forward.

Debating who is to blame will not improve the Iraq situation. I say it is certainly fair game to bring it up when we are again confronted with a similar situation.

As of right now, working together to develop a reasonable plan for the future of Iraq is what we have left.
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:46 PM   #67
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Originally posted by Irvine511




there are over 4 million Iraqi refugees; 2 million have the means to leave, the other 2 million have fled to more ethnically friendly areas.

one could argue that we already have a genocide on our hands.
Ethnic cleansing is different than genocide.
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:49 PM   #68
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Originally posted by Dreadsox
Since we have such a grand coalition, and the full support of the UN based on various resolutions.....

We should be able to leave and the coalition and the UN able to handle the job.

Or am I missing something?
I wish this was the case, but it is not. So, we need to plan accordingly. I think the UN may come back once there is SOME sense of stability. In my opinion - we are making progress. I think we will know more by the end of the summer.

It doesn't matter anymore that we are essentially going at this alone. It's just the way it is. It's too late to call "do over." So let's roll with what we have.
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:52 PM   #69
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Originally posted by A_Wanderer
Ethnic cleansing is different than genocide.
This term become popular during the Bosnian "conflict" (another euphemism) and there was no difference to a genocide.

Here it seems like a genocide in its beginning.
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Old 04-19-2007, 06:59 PM   #70
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Well, it doesn't really matter at this point HOW we got there or WHY we go there. What matters now is that we ARE there and we must do the right thing from this point forward.
I disagree. It matters to me. It matters to my friends who lost a son, brother, cousin.

It matters in the eyes of the world, a world in which the US used to be considered a leader. But all of theat goodwill towrds us, is down the shitter.

It matters to me, a former soldier, who signed up to defend his country and the constitution. A constitution that apparently means nothing to anyone anymore. It matters to me, because I do not remember signing up to install democracy. It matters to me, because that was NOT what we went to war for.

It matters to the next soldier that dies, and the soldier after that. How do you explain the death of the last soldier to the parents as we leave and the entire place is consumed by war after we leave. Gee Mom and Dad we are so very sorry, but he/she died to install a democracy....oh shit....sorry about that....he died to save face.

It matters to me! One more death is too many.

The right thing from this point forward? Installing a democracy in a region that has not shown any interest in being deomcratic.

Quote:
Originally posted by AEON
Debating who is to blame will not improve the Iraq situation. I say it is certainly fair game to bring it up when we are again confronted with a similar situation.

As of right now, working together to develop a reasonable plan for the future of Iraq is what we have left.
WE are to blame. The American People. We let them LIE LIE LIE and MANIPULATE. WE talk accountability, but we do not vote out the CONGRESS, who authorized it and have failed to do anything about it. The sack of shit that we were handed, created by a group of people with NO regaurd for the truth. That fiorced people out of the intelligence business by cutting pieces of reports that backed their world view even though the reports had totally different conclusions. I am sick of hearing do not change the course, fuck that. Fuck McCain, Fuck Bush Cheny and all of the Congress who authorized this. If we the people got off our asses and voted these cocksuckers out (CONGRESS) mayby just maybe someone would get the hint that the average citizen gives a shit.

But we do not. We do not because a soldier or an Iraqi dies and we are insulated. They volunteered. And to be honest, I see NOBODY talking about the war. ITs like it exists in the back of our consciouness, and yeah its there....but the fact is......AMERICANS no longer care or feel the pain.
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Old 04-19-2007, 07:01 PM   #71
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Originally posted by AEON


I wish this was the case, but it is not. So, we need to plan accordingly. I think the UN may come back once there is SOME sense of stability. In my opinion - we are making progress. I think we will know more by the end of the summer.

If this war were run correctly from the START, we night be sitting here alone.


Quote:
Originally posted by AEON

It doesn't matter anymore that we are essentially going at this alone. It's just the way it is. It's too late to call "do over." So let's roll with what we have.
United Flight 93?
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Old 04-19-2007, 07:05 PM   #72
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Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar
How much were they bombing before we got there?
Haha what a solid question!

Quote:
Originally posted by AEON
That's not the issue on the table. The issue on the table is what would happen if the US military left right now. And I think it is safe to say the Iraqi civilians will face brutal acts of terror far worse than they are currently experiencing. The chaos would become genocide.
What bullshit! How do you know this for sure? How can you say "it's safe to say"? We are unable to even distinguish who is good and who is bad out there! It is not our country, it is theirs. Let them decide their own fate! I like how this is lost on the republicans!
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Old 04-19-2007, 07:05 PM   #73
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Old 04-19-2007, 07:14 PM   #74
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I have such a migrane...LOL

And my kidney stone is moving...so I am a real pleasure to be around right now.

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Old 04-19-2007, 07:47 PM   #75
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Originally posted by Dreadsox


I disagree. It matters to me. It matters to my friends who lost a son, brother, cousin.

It matters in the eyes of the world, a world in which the US used to be considered a leader. But all of theat goodwill towrds us, is down the shitter.

It matters to me, a former soldier, who signed up to defend his country and the constitution. A constitution that apparently means nothing to anyone anymore. It matters to me, because I do not remember signing up to install democracy. It matters to me, because that was NOT what we went to war for.

It matters to the next soldier that dies, and the soldier after that. How do you explain the death of the last soldier to the parents as we leave and the entire place is consumed by war after we leave. Gee Mom and Dad we are so very sorry, but he/she died to install a democracy....oh shit....sorry about that....he died to save face.

It matters to me! One more death is too many.

The right thing from this point forward? Installing a democracy in a region that has not shown any interest in being deomcratic.



WE are to blame. The American People. We let them LIE LIE LIE and MANIPULATE. WE talk accountability, but we do not vote out the CONGRESS, who authorized it and have failed to do anything about it. The sack of shit that we were handed, created by a group of people with NO regaurd for the truth. That fiorced people out of the intelligence business by cutting pieces of reports that backed their world view even though the reports had totally different conclusions. I am sick of hearing do not change the course, fuck that. Fuck McCain, Fuck Bush Cheny and all of the Congress who authorized this. If we the people got off our asses and voted these cocksuckers out (CONGRESS) mayby just maybe someone would get the hint that the average citizen gives a shit.

But we do not. We do not because a soldier or an Iraqi dies and we are insulated. They volunteered. And to be honest, I see NOBODY talking about the war. ITs like it exists in the back of our consciouness, and yeah its there....but the fact is......AMERICANS no longer car or feel the pain.
I understand how you feel. Most of us at this point have felt some of the pain of this war. My Guard unit was one of the hardest hit in Iraq - I am reminded every drill how much sacrifice has been required. My brother has done tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. My Platoon Sergeant has the scar from a tracheotomy staring right at me every time we talk.

However, the discussion of how we got there and why we got there really won't help us move forward - will it? I could be wrong, but I’ve never seen blame attached to an actual plan for success in any operation or exercise. It's like Project Management, at some point we all have to agree that things haven’t been working as planned – but we must come up with a new plan to succeed (that is assuming success is actually desired). Debating about how the project got messed up in the first place doesn’t usually help until AFTER the project is complete. Instead, you reassess, carry on, and make it happen. Root cause analysis ALWAYS follows resolution.

The pain you’ve encountered is valid. And it should be expressed. But we still must keep an eye on the future and use our imagination to come up with a real solution for Iraq.
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