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Old 10-12-2005, 12:21 AM   #1
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"Al Qaeda letter called 'chilling'"

Al Qaeda letter called 'chilling'
Al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi: Prepare for U.S. to leave Iraq soon
From David Ensor
CNN



Tuesday, October 11, 2005; Posted: 11:27 p.m. EDT (03:27 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Senior U.S. intelligence officials call a letter from al Qaeda's No. 2 man to its leader in Iraq "chilling" because of how "calm, clear and well argued" it is in urging preparation for a U.S. departure from Iraq.

According to a translation of the 6,300-word letter provided by the U.S. government, Ayman al-Zawahiri predicts "the Americans will exit soon" from Iraq and says "things may develop faster than we imagine."

U.S. leaders have refused to set a timetable for troop withdrawals, saying such a move would embolden insurgents. Military leaders have suggested a reduction in 2006 is possible, depending on the preparedness of Iraqi security forces.

But in the letter, al-Zawahiri is clearly worried that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, with his televised beheadings of hostages and attacks on Shiites, could lose what he calls a "media battle" for the "hearts and minds" of Muslims. (Full text)

"I say to you: that we are in a battle, and that more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media," al-Zawahiri writes.

"The Muslim populace who love and support you will never find palatable ... the scenes of slaughtering the hostages," he warns al-Zarqawi, self-proclaimed leader of al Qaeda in Iraq.

Al-Zawahiri also criticizes al-Zarqawi's attacks on Shiites and reminds him that Shiite Iran is holding more than 100 al Qaeda prisoners -- many of them leaders such as Saif al-Adel and Osama bin Laden's son, Saad.

"Is the opening of another front now in addition to the front against the Americans and the government a wise decision?" al-Zawahiri asks. "Or does this conflict with Shia lift the burden from the Americans by diverting the mujahedeen to the Shia, while the Americans continue to control matters from afar?"

A senior U.S. intelligence official said he was "absolutely confident" the letter is genuine.

This official described the letter's language as that of "an al Qaeda elder to an occasionally hotheaded field commander" -- language, sources said, that President Bush had seen before he delivered a speech on the war on terror last week.

"It is cowardice that seeks to kill children and the elderly with car bombs and cuts the throat of a bound captive and targets worshippers leaving a mosque," President Bush said October 6. (Full story)

Details on when or how the letter was intercepted have not been disclosed, and the full text had not previously been released.

Its existence was publicly confirmed last week after what officials called an incomplete and partially inaccurate version was leaked to news organizations. (Full story)

A senior U.S. official said the text was released because the letter would no longer hurt ongoing operations or compromise intelligence sources and methods. The American public and the world, he said, "should be fully informed about the enemy."

The letter outlines a four-stage plan to expand the war in Iraq: Expel U.S. forces, establish an Islamic authority, take the fight to Iraq's secular neighbors and battle with Israel -- "because Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entity."

The letter says: "We must be ready starting now, before events overtake us, and before we are surprised by the conspiracies of the Americans and the United Nations and their plans to fill the void behind them."

Dated two days after the London terror attacks of July 7, the letter makes no mention of those attacks and pleads for more information, suggesting al-Zawahiri , who has a $25 million reward on his head, feels cut off.

He describes difficulties he and al Qaeda are facing more than a dozen times and says the real danger to him comes from Pakistani army operations in the tribal areas.

Al-Zawahiri even asks al-Zarqawi for $100,000, saying the recent capture of a high-ranking al Qaeda operative has left him in need of cash.

The Egyptian-born physician also says the U.S. hunt has taken a toll on his family -- that his "favorite wife," son and daughter have been killed, but that he has fathered a daughter while in hiding and his health is fine.

Asked about the letter Sunday, Iraq's national security adviser said "these people are the dark forces, the anti-Iraqi forces." (Full story)

"They are frightened of democracy in Iraq," Mowaffak al-Rubaie told CNN. "They want to bring us to Iraq a Taliban-style regime, like the one which used to be in Afghanistan, and the Iraqi people will not have this."

"We are so determined to proceed with our political process," he said, first with Saturday's national referendum on a proposed constitution and then, if that is approved, parliamentary elections by year's end.

Iraqi and U.S. officials have predicted insurgent violence will surge in the days leading to the referendum in an effort to keep voters from the polls.




http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/...ter/index.html
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Old 10-12-2005, 12:24 AM   #2
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Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi
October 11, 2005
ODNI News Release No. 2-05


Today the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a letter between two senior al Qa'ida leaders, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, that was obtained during counterterrorism operations in Iraq. This lengthy document provides a comprehensive view of al Qa'ida's strategy in Iraq and globally.

The letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi is dated July 9, 2005. The contents were released only after assurances that no ongoing intelligence or military operations would be affected by making this document public.

The document has not been edited in any way and is released in its entirety in both the Arabic and English translated forms. The United States Government has the highest confidence in the letter's authenticity.

Al-Zawahiri's letter offers a strategic vision for al Qa'ida's direction for Iraq and beyond, and portrays
al Qa'ida's senior leadership's isolation and dependence.

Among the letter's highlights are discussions indicating:

The centrality of the war in Iraq for the global jihad.


From al Qa'ida's point of view, the war does not end with an American departure.


An acknowledgment of the appeal of democracy to the Iraqis.


The strategic vision of inevitable conflict, with a tacit recognition of current political dynamics in Iraq; with a call by al-Zawahiri for political action equal to military action.


The need to maintain popular support at least until jihadist rule has been established.


Admission that more than half the struggle is taking place "in the battlefield of the media."




http://www.dni.gov/release_letter_101105.html



To read the entire letter in english, go here:

http://www.dni.gov/letter_in_english.doc
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Old 10-12-2005, 12:43 AM   #3
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A "free" Iraq will never exist because such a state could never be allowed under Islamic teachings. "Freedom", especially regarding religion, is not tolerated. Iraq and all arab countries will always be under the smothering hold of Islam. And people think Christians in the USA are bad....so fucked up.
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Old 10-12-2005, 01:31 AM   #4
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So really what was the point? I thought Iraq was part of fight on terrorism?!

Are Conservatives finally realizing that a war will not end terrorism?
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Old 10-12-2005, 01:46 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by BonoVoxSupastar
So really what was the point? I thought Iraq was part of fight on terrorism?!

Are Conservatives finally realizing that a war will not end terrorism?
If anything, this should show anyone who thinks the current war in Iraq has nothing to do with terrorism is wrong. It also shows contrary to what several have said here in the past, that Al Quada is deeply concerned about image and what is said in the media.

Once again as stated by "Al-Zawahiri" himself, the second in comand of Al Quada, Al Quada considers Iraq to be the central front in the war, and that the #1 priority for winning in Iraq is GETTING THE AMERICANS TO WITHDRAW. General control of Iraq by Al Quada and the building of the Muslim Superstate from Iraq would then follow. After Iraq the goal will be to invade and control the neighboring "Secular" states around Iraq.

Thats "Al-Zawahiri" general mission statement to "Abu Musab al-Zarqawi".
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Old 10-12-2005, 05:10 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by theblazer
A "free" Iraq will never exist because such a state could never be allowed under Islamic teachings. "Freedom", especially regarding religion, is not tolerated. Iraq and all arab countries will always be under the smothering hold of Islam. And people think Christians in the USA are bad....so fucked up.
interesting, especially when one recalls that iraq's record on religious freedom prior to the war was considered superior to many of its neighbours.
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Old 10-12-2005, 06:19 AM   #7
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And the means to achieving that level of religious freedom is irrelevent?

Having brutal secular dictators emplaced for so many decades has been a driving force for the Islamist cause, one only needs to look at the Muslim Brotherhood to see an example.

The only way for good secular governance to emerge is within the confines of free society that may in time be tempered with individual rights.
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Old 10-12-2005, 03:03 PM   #8
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This just makes me feel sick
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Old 10-12-2005, 07:46 PM   #9
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If and when the Americans pull out, I don't think Al Qaeda could seriously try to take over Iraq. They'll be majorly over matched in troops and munitions by both the Kurds and the Shia...the majority Shia will be backed by Iran. Not sure how interested Al Qaeda would be in joining forces with the Sunnis for a protracted war against Iraq's Shia majority.

Sure, these groups are good at insurgency against "occupying forces"...but all out civil war for who knows how many years? Doesn't make sense to make it an inter-Muslim war, when America's the real enemy to them.
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Old 10-12-2005, 08:18 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by Judah
If and when the Americans pull out, I don't think Al Qaeda could seriously try to take over Iraq. They'll be majorly over matched in troops and munitions by both the Kurds and the Shia...the majority Shia will be backed by Iran. Not sure how interested Al Qaeda would be in joining forces with the Sunnis for a protracted war against Iraq's Shia majority.

Sure, these groups are good at insurgency against "occupying forces"...but all out civil war for who knows how many years? Doesn't make sense to make it an inter-Muslim war, when America's the real enemy to them.
Their plans to take over Iraq if the United States were to leave are no different than what they actually did in Afghanistan. The Taliban did not exist in Afghanistan prior to 1996. The Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan in 1989 and the Communist Government was overthrown by the Mujahadeen in 1991. After 1991, the country split up into regions controlled by warlords and the Mujahadeen fractured. A Civil war started and then the Taliban came into the weakened state from across the border in Pakistan and dominanted events crushing all resistence with the exception of the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance was pushed into a very mountainous corner of the country. Al Quada came in on the backs of the Taliban and established their base and training camps in Afghanistan.

Just as Al Quada used the Taliban in Afghanistan to strengthen its position and establish bases and training camps, Al Quada will try to use the Sunni insurgence, primarily the remainder of Saddam's regime, to establish a new base in Iraq if the United States and Coalition leaves without putting in place a strong government that can defend itself.

The Sunni insurgents are far better armed and trained than any of the Shia militia's or Kurdish militias. The US military reported these differences from fighting in 2004 with Sader's Shia Militia VS. fighting with Sunni insurgents in Fallugah and other hot spots in the Sunni Triangle. Saddam's special Republican Guard was nearly all Sunni and currently make up a good part of the leadership and corp of the sunni resistence in Iraq.

The only thing that stands in the way of the Sunni's is the US Military and the growing new Iraqi military. If these obstacles to Al Quada victory in Iraq were some how removed, Sunni Groups with Al Quada help would have an excellant opportunity to establish control of Iraq. If you don't think it can happen, look what happened in Afghanistan. Iran would probably not be any more successful at intervention and preventing such a state than they were at preventing the same thing from happening to their nothern neighbor Afghanistan in the 1990s.
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Old 10-12-2005, 10:06 PM   #11
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This opinion piece is pretty relevent & many would agree with it -

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/o...796586023.html
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Old 10-13-2005, 05:07 PM   #12
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Further developments on the Al Qaeda letter:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/...ter/index.html

Al Qaeda in Iraq: Letter to al-Zarqawi a fake
U.S. official says multiple sources verified document

Thursday, October 13, 2005; Posted: 4:39 p.m. EDT (20:39 GMT)
(CNN) -- Al Qaeda in Iraq said Thursday a letter purportedly from Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is a fake, according to a statement on several Islamist Web sites.

The terrorist group denied the letter was from al Qaeda and claimed it was "another fabrication ... by the Black House," using its term for the White House.
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Old 10-13-2005, 11:37 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by Judah
Further developments on the Al Qaeda letter:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/...ter/index.html

Al Qaeda in Iraq: Letter to al-Zarqawi a fake
U.S. official says multiple sources verified document

Thursday, October 13, 2005; Posted: 4:39 p.m. EDT (20:39 GMT)
(CNN) -- Al Qaeda in Iraq said Thursday a letter purportedly from Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is a fake, according to a statement on several Islamist Web sites.

The terrorist group denied the letter was from al Qaeda and claimed it was "another fabrication ... by the Black House," using its term for the White House.
I'm sure Al Quada would let us know if it was the real thing.
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Old 10-14-2005, 12:42 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by A_Wanderer
And the means to achieving that level of religious freedom is irrelevent?
clearly not, but iraq's level of secularism prior to the 2003 war did seem particularly relevant in the context of another poster's comments on "the smothering hold of Islam."
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Old 10-14-2005, 03:56 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by STING2


I'm sure Al Quada would let us know if it was the real thing.
Agreed!

Though, when it comes to the Iraq War, all sides are sorely lacking in the credibility department.
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