AIDS will kill 480 million people by 2050 - U2 Feedback

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Old 02-26-2003, 12:26 PM   #1
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AIDS will kill 480 million people by 2050

U.N. Says AIDS Will Reduce
Population by 480 Million

By GAUTAM NAIK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


LONDON -- Two years ago, the United Nations estimated that there would be at least 300 million fewer people by mid-century because of the AIDS epidemic. It has now revised that estimate to 480 million people.

That chilling revision reflects not a statistical error but a "more serious and prolonged impact of the epidemic," according to new figures published Wednesday by the U.N. population division. The figure includes the effect of both AIDS deaths and fewer births than would normally be expected because of the early deaths of women of childbearing age.

"It's a catastrophe," says Joseph Chamie, director of the U.N. population division. "We have to bring down mortality in these countries."

India alone accounts for about 47 million of the increased number of expected AIDS deaths while China accounts for 40 million, reflecting the huge populations of those countries. But in terms of relative impact, the AIDS epidemic will be more devastating to African populations than demographers had previously anticipated.

The U.N.'s survey includes 53 of the worst-hit countries, and the bulk of those are in sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic impact will be most pronounced in seven African countries which have the highest levels of HIV infection -- more than 20% -- including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The U.N. projects that, in just a dozen years, the population in these places will be 19% lower than it would have been without AIDS.

Botswana, where nearly a third of all adults are infected with the HIV virus, will be among the hardest hit. Life expectancy there has already plunged from 65 years in 1990-95 to 56.3 years in 1995-2000. Over the next two years, it is expected to drop to 39.7 years. The U.N.'s projections suggest that Botswana's population will reach 1.4 million by mid-century -- down 20% from 2000. Population declines are also expected South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland.

Of course, AIDS isn't the only factor reducing global population growth. The U.N. report estimates that a further 200 million deficit in global population by mid-century, compared with earlier projections, because of an unexpected fall in birth rates in developing countries. Fertility rates there have fallen dramatically over the last half century, from an average of six to three children per woman. By mid-century, three of every four developing countries are expected to have birth rates below 2.1, the level needed to ensure the long-term replacement of the population.

The projected 380 million deficit -- reflecting the increased impact of AIDS and falling fertility -- means that the world's population will reach roughly 8.9 billion by 2050. That's significantly less than a 9.3 billion level projected two years ago by the U.N., and far below a 12 billion figure it predicted a decade ago.
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Old 02-26-2003, 12:33 PM   #2
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We just can't hear this enough! Thanks for posting.

Have you written your letters to Bush/Reps in Congress?

Check the site in my sig for sample letters if you'd like.

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Old 02-26-2003, 12:41 PM   #3
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I'd also suggest writing letters to these affected individuals pleading them to stop reproducing and spreading the disease.

It is a horrible affliction, especially with the drugs that are available, but are understandably very expensive.. BUT The silver lining with AIDS is that it is preventable.

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Old 02-26-2003, 01:08 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally posted by Beefeater
I'd also suggest writing letters to these affected individuals pleading them to stop reproducing and spreading the disease.

It is a horrible affliction, especially with the drugs that are available, but are understandably very expensive.. BUT The silver lining with AIDS is that it is preventable.

Beefeater
I'm sorry but that is about the most flammable statement I've seen in FYM for a long time.
First there isn't testing easily available, the social stigma attached to the disease, and lack of medical care for contraception. Their society is also mostly Islamic or other Patriarchial society with women given little choices.

Nevermind it.
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Old 02-26-2003, 01:24 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by Scarletwine


I'm sorry but that is about the most flammable statement I've seen in FYM for a long time.
First there isn't testing easily available, the social stigma attached to the disease, and lack of medical care for contraception. Their society is also mostly Islamic or other Patriarchial society with women given little choices.

Nevermind it.
Wow.. I'm sorry you were offended.. I realize testing isn't readily available... I didn't want to write out pages and pages of background info. Anyways, Perhaps the money given out for AIDS medication, should be also partly directed towards testing.

It seems that you are linking two seperate possible sources for the disease.

Are women in South Africa being raped as frequently and in the manner you suggest?..

And in regard to these Islamic and Patriarchial societies.. Maybe you should put some focus into that, and work on gathering support in opposition of those societies as a springboard to solving the AIDS crisis. Do you seriously believe that in one of these societies, if medication even entered the country, that it would get to the people who need it?

I agree, it is a horrible disease, but again, it is preventable. There are many that aren't.

Good Day,
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Old 02-26-2003, 01:35 PM   #6
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I wasn't suggesting that they are being raped, although that does happen, I was going more along the lines of early marriages, lack of education, including sex education as sex isn't usually talked about in Islamic societies.

As for two different sources of the disease, recent studies by the Un are linking a greater percent than previously thought to reused needles in what limited medical practice is available.

I also do think that the medicines can get to where they are needed. Especially important is the one that prevents transmission from mother to child.

Prevention is also very important. As we know from here, education also takes money. Sexual abstinence is one way, protected sex another.

Why would I want to do something against Islamic societies other than encouraging more participation by women. Development and education usually take care of that on their own.

The greatest problem to come out of the AIDS crisis is antibiotic resistant TB. That can move all over the globe vary easily.

Sorry if I was pissed but that was a frivilious statement about something very serious and that I care about.
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Old 02-26-2003, 01:40 PM   #7
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This is awful. We need to try to stop this stuff ASAP. This is going to kill more people than the Black Death did. Egads, shades of the fourteenth century. Ugh.
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Old 02-26-2003, 02:52 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by Beefeater
I'd also suggest writing letters to these affected individuals pleading them to stop reproducing and spreading the disease.

It is a horrible affliction, especially with the drugs that are available, but are understandably very expensive.. BUT The silver lining with AIDS is that it is preventable.

Beefeater
I suggest you begin to choose your wording more carefully when posting. If you feel you are uninformed on a subject, please read the posted articles or ask questions about it, do not just throw an outlandish statement out to get a reaction. That will not be tolerated here. Thank you.
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Old 02-26-2003, 04:16 PM   #9
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let them eat cake.

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Old 02-27-2003, 07:46 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by Beefeater
I'd also suggest writing letters to these affected individuals pleading them to stop reproducing and spreading the disease.

It is a horrible affliction, especially with the drugs that are available, but are understandably very expensive.. BUT The silver lining with AIDS is that it is preventable.

Beefeater
Beefeater,

Firstly - it's not as simple as "pleading [with people] to stop reproducing and speading the disease" - if you do some research on this subject you'll find that many people affected by AIDS/HIV don't even know they have the illness. That's for two reasons - firstly that testing is frequently not available in poorer countries, and that many people are afraid to be tested because they know that even if their test is positive they won't be able to get treatment so it's basically like being told you're going to die in a few years and there's nothing you can do about it.

Secondly - I don't consider it "understandable" that drugs to treat AIDS/HIV are so expensive. It is possible to make generic drugs which are about 1/10th of the price of the branded medications, however the pharmaceutical companies which have a patent on these medications won't allow this to happen. There's a drug company in India (I think it's called Cipla, but someone correct me if I'm wrong) which produces three of the most effective AIDS/HIV drugs in one pill, which means people only have to take two pills a day instead of six or eight. However, the companies which own patents on these drugs put up barriers to prevent this company from selling the drug at affordable prices. Millions of people are dying from this illness, sorry I don't think it's "understandable" that drug companies put profits before people's lives.

You might like to read a set of articles called 'Saving Grace' which appeared in the British newspaper, the Guardian. They're designed to be a sort of introduction to the problems of AIDS/HIV and particularly the problem of access to affordable medications. They aren't especially detailed so you might want to do more research, but they are a good introduction to the issue. You can find them at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/aids/subse...897482,00.html

Fizz
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Old 02-27-2003, 07:48 AM   #11
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India flat-out broke U.S. patents. Apparently, drugs that cost $10,000 a month here only cost about $3 to make. It is not "understandable" in the slightest.

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Old 02-27-2003, 02:43 PM   #12
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melon:
how would Clinton say it? "It's economy.."

But other countries should do it as bush did - if the government needs the drug just "ignore patents and produce it yourself" (/-link> anthrax)
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Old 02-27-2003, 08:09 PM   #13
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Maybe some of you might be interested in the article below, its from BBC News. They describe both AIDS prevention and treatment programmes in my country. The combination of both is what has made us winners on fighting AIDS. The article is dated Saturday, 23 June, 2001

Brazil uses porn to fight Aids

By Tom Gibb in Sao Paulo
A villa outside Sao Paulo has been turned into a set for a pornographic movie by the Brazilian company, Sexxxy videos.

But the company is also the latest recruit in the fight against Aids.

In these films, condoms are standard props.
The company is also shooting a special message about Aids to put at the start of each of its videos - something that the Brazilian congress will soon make compulsory for all adult movies.

Co-opting and regulating the pornographic industry is just the most explicit example of Brazil's aggressive anti-Aids programme, which is making many experts point to the country as a model for elsewhere in the world.

Certainly Brazil, which has cut deaths from the disease by 60%, is way ahead in both the controversial issues likely to dominate the world Aids summit in New York, which starts Monday.

The first is how and whether to provide universal treatment.

The second is coming up with prevention campaigns in which sex, homosexuality, relations between the sexes and drug use can be discussed publicly - subjects still taboo in many places.

Free drugs

Brazil is the only developing country to provide free treatment, making cheap generic copies of anti-Aids drugs.

Officials say cutting Aids deaths makes the $300m it spends on free treatment a sound economic, as well as ethical, investment.

"We do not have our hospitals filled with people dying of Aids," says Dr Fabio Mesquito, who runs Sao Paulo's city Aids programme.

One of the fears of providing universal treatment is that it will create resistance, because people in the third world will not take the medicines properly.

But studies in Brazil have shown uneducated slum dwellers or rural workers are just as good at keeping to complicated drug regimes as people in the developed world.

Brazilian clinics use charts with little stickers for the different pills - the sun, the moon and meals - to explain complicated drug regimes.

Thanks to free treatment, doctors say, the epidemic has spread at half the speed predicted a decade ago.

However with more than half a million Brazilians estimated to be infected with the virus, experts say they need whatever treatment is available to fight the disease.

US threatens

Brazil's laws allow it to break international patents to produce copies of the latest drugs.

This has brought conflict with the United States, which has gone to the WTO and is threatening sanctions.

Some US officials have argued that treatment is only a small part of an anti-Aids programme and that Brazil should look more to prevention.

This has produced an angry response from Brazilian doctors.

"Ethically and practically I cannot see how we can run an Aids programme choosing between prevention or treatment. We have to do both because one enhances the other," said Dr Arturo Kalichman, head of the Sao Paulo state Aids programme.

Doctors here say that without treatment, people do not want to get tested, making the disease spread much faster.

Treatment also reduces stigma against those with the disease, making it easier to include them in prevention campaigns.

Prevention

Brazil does have an aggressive prevention campaign. It has used its open attitude to sex, which is sometimes blamed in other countries for the spread of Aids, to full advantage.

Brazilian media campaigns, talking about condoms and sex, would be much too explicit elsewhere in Latin America, let alone the rest of the world.

In many Sao Paulo schools, teenagers practice putting condoms onto a clay model, as well as discussing the importance of honesty in relationships as part of their sex education.

Brazilian doctors are now looking at ways of expanding this because, despite the successes, the disease continues to spread into the population at large.

Women

The latest statistics show a steady increase in the numbers of women testing positive, often after taking the test during pregnancy.

Many are married, from poor households, and have only had relations with their husbands - who have not been so faithful.

Doctors admit changing this will be tough.

"The potential of the epidemic among the heterosexual population is very worrying because it is the vast population of Brazil," said Dr Kalichman.

"We still have a cultural challenge to deal with the sexist and double morals, that a man can do something that a woman cannot do."

He added that fighting Aids also means fighting poverty and social exclusion.

Here Brazil, which has one of the biggest wealth gaps in the world between rich and poor, still has a long way to go.

"If we rest on our laurels" warns Dr Kalichman, "the disease could still get out of control."
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Old 02-27-2003, 08:21 PM   #14
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My only comment in regards to the jawdropping statistic is this: It will happen and there's nothing we will do to stop it. That's not to say there isn't ANYTHING we can do to stop it, but considering the priorities of Westernized nations, we will prefer to obtain more oil, more land and more greed before we'd ever contemplate helping the poor, the black, and the Asian.
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Old 02-27-2003, 08:46 PM   #15
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was reading a story today about the possible war with Iraq. it could cost us $95 BILLION. what would happen if you spent it to do some good and not bad.
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