sharky
New Yorker
U.N. Says AIDS Will Reduce
Population by 480 Million
By GAUTAM NAIK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
LONDON -- Two years ago, the United Nations estimated that there would be at least 300 million fewer people by mid-century because of the AIDS epidemic. It has now revised that estimate to 480 million people.
That chilling revision reflects not a statistical error but a "more serious and prolonged impact of the epidemic," according to new figures published Wednesday by the U.N. population division. The figure includes the effect of both AIDS deaths and fewer births than would normally be expected because of the early deaths of women of childbearing age.
"It's a catastrophe," says Joseph Chamie, director of the U.N. population division. "We have to bring down mortality in these countries."
India alone accounts for about 47 million of the increased number of expected AIDS deaths while China accounts for 40 million, reflecting the huge populations of those countries. But in terms of relative impact, the AIDS epidemic will be more devastating to African populations than demographers had previously anticipated.
The U.N.'s survey includes 53 of the worst-hit countries, and the bulk of those are in sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic impact will be most pronounced in seven African countries which have the highest levels of HIV infection -- more than 20% -- including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The U.N. projects that, in just a dozen years, the population in these places will be 19% lower than it would have been without AIDS.
Botswana, where nearly a third of all adults are infected with the HIV virus, will be among the hardest hit. Life expectancy there has already plunged from 65 years in 1990-95 to 56.3 years in 1995-2000. Over the next two years, it is expected to drop to 39.7 years. The U.N.'s projections suggest that Botswana's population will reach 1.4 million by mid-century -- down 20% from 2000. Population declines are also expected South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland.
Of course, AIDS isn't the only factor reducing global population growth. The U.N. report estimates that a further 200 million deficit in global population by mid-century, compared with earlier projections, because of an unexpected fall in birth rates in developing countries. Fertility rates there have fallen dramatically over the last half century, from an average of six to three children per woman. By mid-century, three of every four developing countries are expected to have birth rates below 2.1, the level needed to ensure the long-term replacement of the population.
The projected 380 million deficit -- reflecting the increased impact of AIDS and falling fertility -- means that the world's population will reach roughly 8.9 billion by 2050. That's significantly less than a 9.3 billion level projected two years ago by the U.N., and far below a 12 billion figure it predicted a decade ago.
Population by 480 Million
By GAUTAM NAIK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
LONDON -- Two years ago, the United Nations estimated that there would be at least 300 million fewer people by mid-century because of the AIDS epidemic. It has now revised that estimate to 480 million people.
That chilling revision reflects not a statistical error but a "more serious and prolonged impact of the epidemic," according to new figures published Wednesday by the U.N. population division. The figure includes the effect of both AIDS deaths and fewer births than would normally be expected because of the early deaths of women of childbearing age.
"It's a catastrophe," says Joseph Chamie, director of the U.N. population division. "We have to bring down mortality in these countries."
India alone accounts for about 47 million of the increased number of expected AIDS deaths while China accounts for 40 million, reflecting the huge populations of those countries. But in terms of relative impact, the AIDS epidemic will be more devastating to African populations than demographers had previously anticipated.
The U.N.'s survey includes 53 of the worst-hit countries, and the bulk of those are in sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic impact will be most pronounced in seven African countries which have the highest levels of HIV infection -- more than 20% -- including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The U.N. projects that, in just a dozen years, the population in these places will be 19% lower than it would have been without AIDS.
Botswana, where nearly a third of all adults are infected with the HIV virus, will be among the hardest hit. Life expectancy there has already plunged from 65 years in 1990-95 to 56.3 years in 1995-2000. Over the next two years, it is expected to drop to 39.7 years. The U.N.'s projections suggest that Botswana's population will reach 1.4 million by mid-century -- down 20% from 2000. Population declines are also expected South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland.
Of course, AIDS isn't the only factor reducing global population growth. The U.N. report estimates that a further 200 million deficit in global population by mid-century, compared with earlier projections, because of an unexpected fall in birth rates in developing countries. Fertility rates there have fallen dramatically over the last half century, from an average of six to three children per woman. By mid-century, three of every four developing countries are expected to have birth rates below 2.1, the level needed to ensure the long-term replacement of the population.
The projected 380 million deficit -- reflecting the increased impact of AIDS and falling fertility -- means that the world's population will reach roughly 8.9 billion by 2050. That's significantly less than a 9.3 billion level projected two years ago by the U.N., and far below a 12 billion figure it predicted a decade ago.
