2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII

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womanfish said:
Yes, in short, i think Pence won the day, but Kaine will win the week.
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Yeah, that certainly seems to be the case. Lots of headlines today that go along the lines of "Pence wins debate by defending imaginary version of Donald Trump." Also several conservative commenters saying things along the lines of "I could vote for the Trump Pence described, I just can't vote for the one who actually exists."

CNN's undecided focus group went Kaine 18-3. Also, none of Pence's attacks on Clinton seemed to stick. His defense of the Trump Foundation was to say "every penny goes to charity" (when it clearly doesn't) and to call the Clinton Foundation a slush fund.

It's Trump's Mirror - any attack on an opponent is actually a reflection on Trump himself. As perfectly evidenced by Trump tweeting last night (and this is real): "Clinton's close ties to Putin deserve scrutiny"

[tweet]783490959027732484[/tweet]
 
Hewson said:
Oh and this was kind of glossed over last night...


but Bill is right, I have been crushed by surging premiums since the inception of Romneycare and then its bastard cousin Obamacare. My premiums have more than doubled in that time, I pay close to $20K out of pocket annually for health insurance under these wonderful plans, they gave insurance companies carte blanche to screw customers. No "Affordable" Health Care Act should have ever been passed without including regulations on premiums.
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I think I've been very vocal on my opinion of the ACA. I just hope whoever wins the election bothers to fix this huge mistake in a way that doesn't take us too many steps backwards.
 
bono_212 said:
I think I've been very vocal on my opinion of the ACA. I just hope whoever wins the election bothers to fix this huge mistake in a way that doesn't take us too many steps backwards.
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Then don't look at the presidential candidates, but at the congressmen and senators. The Republican Party has refused to consider any repairs to Obamacare since they want it to fail.
 
Diemen said:
Yeah, that certainly seems to be the case. Lots of headlines today that go along the lines of "Pence wins debate by defending imaginary version of Donald Trump." Also several conservative commenters saying things along the lines of "I could vote for the Trump Pence described, I just can't vote for the one who actually exists."

CNN's undecided focus group went Kaine 18-3. Also, none of Pence's attacks on Clinton seemed to stick. His defense of the Trump Foundation was to say "every penny goes to charity" (when it clearly doesn't) and to call the Clinton Foundation a slush fund.

It's Trump's Mirror - any attack on an opponent is actually a reflection on Trump himself. As perfectly evidenced by Trump tweeting last night (and this is real): "Clinton's close ties to Putin deserve scrutiny"

[tweet]783490959027732484[/tweet]
Click to expand...


wow, that focus group number says a lot. I believe 18 of 20 undecideds went for Clinton after her debate.
 
sorry to be annoying. But what the hell with realclearpolitics?

I don't see how they can keep using the constant outlier, LA Times poll in their average.
Often they will double up the LA times poll because its a tracking poll, which just compounds the problem.
It throws off their average by over 1 percentage point.



RCP Average 9/26 - 10/4 -- -- 48.1 44.2 Clinton +3.9
Economist/YouGov 10/1 - 10/3 911 RV 3.9 48 43 Clinton +5
LA Times/USC Tracking 9/28 - 10/4 2369 LV 4.5 43 47 Trump +4
Reuters/Ipsos 9/29 - 10/3 1239 LV 3.2 44 37 Clinton +7
CBS News 9/28 - 10/2 1217 LV 4.0 49 43 Clinton +6
CNN/ORC 9/28 - 10/2 1213 LV 3.0 51 45 Clinton +6
NBC News/SM 9/26 - 10/2 26925 LV 1.0 50 44 Clinton +6
FOX News 9/27 - 9/29 911 LV 3.0 49 44 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 9/27 - 9/28 933 LV 3.2 49 45 Clinton +4
 
It's aggregate polling. You can't just omit a poll because you don't like what it says. I feel like I've beat this point to death... aggregate polling doesn't tell you the real state of public opinion. It tells you about the direction of the candidates in public polls.
 
I think a lot of you are being overly optimistic about the media and the perception that Kaine will win the week with his one-liners.

Because I'm at home during the day, I have had CNN on when the baby is sleeping. The only thing they are showing over and over and over again in terms of clips of Kaine is his interrupting. Interrupting the moderator (who they emphasize is female) and interrupting Pence. Whatever zingers he did or didn't get in, believe me you'd have no idea from the coverage. They are also repeating the Mexican line by Pence all day so it's not like he's being glossed over. But the bottom line is I don't think the takeaway by Joe Shmoe who just sees some clips over the upcoming days (until Sunday when this will not be news at all anymore) will be what you are thinking it will be.
 
If you look at 538's model, they correct for polls that systematically show bias in either direction, so a LA Times/USC polls that shows a +4 for Trump ends up being coded, after the correction, as a tie (the same happens to polls that are historically pro-Clinton). These errors tend to be related to methodological choices on how to cut your sample, so they are not necessarily politically motivated.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

Also, for those who were criticizing Kaine's performance last night: he was clearly trying to get material for the ad campaign that will follow, and he got it.

 
anitram said:
I think a lot of you are being overly optimistic about the media and the perception that Kaine will win the week with his one-liners.

Because I'm at home during the day, I have had CNN on when the baby is sleeping. The only thing they are showing over and over and over again in terms of clips of Kaine is his interrupting. Interrupting the moderator (who they emphasize is female) and interrupting Pence. Whatever zingers he did or didn't get in, believe me you'd have no idea from the coverage. They are also repeating the Mexican line by Pence all day so it's not like he's being glossed over. But the bottom line is I don't think the takeaway by Joe Shmoe who just sees some clips over the upcoming days (until Sunday when this will not be news at all anymore) will be what you are thinking it will be.
Click to expand...

Now that it's all shaken out. What I'm seeing most is headline after headline of "Pence steady performer, but unable to defend Trump"

That's most and second are headlines like "Yes Mike Pence, Trump really Did Say those things"

when you have CNN coming out with videos like this one, it's not great for Pence/Trump

What Mike Pence said Donald Trump said vs. what Trump really said - CNNPolitics.com
 
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gump said:
If you look at 538's model, they correct for polls that systematically show bias in either direction, so a LA Times/USC polls that shows a +4 for Trump ends up being coded, after the correction, as a tie (the same happens to polls that are historically pro-Clinton). These errors tend to be related to methodological choices on how to cut your sample, so they are not necessarily politically motivated.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
Click to expand...

I do prefer 538 because it's much more comprehensive and grades/weights each poll accordingly. And I don't think it's a political motivation by RCP or LA Times, I just think that if one poll's methodology results in it being consistently 5 to 11 points off the others, that they could pick another of the dozens of polling outfits out there.
 
Really is a bountiful offering of interesting and important propositions for us Californians. Prop 55 is obviously my favorite since it means the rich have to continue to pay their fair share for a change. Every state would be well funded if they allowed such propositions to be voted on by their constituents.

http://ballot.fyi/


Also love Prop 56 since it mostly taxes the creepers.
 
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Headache in a Suitcase said:
I think last night could be more harmful than some are giving credit.

Pence was able to get away without being challenged at all on his morally corrupt thinking in regards to basic civil rights. Most "average Joe's" will come away from that debate without even knowing just what a piece of shit the guy is.

Kaine, on the other hand, came off as the goofy putz that he often comes off as. It might be relatable one on one but in a setting like last night he looks really awkward.

Ultimately he didn't fully embarrass himself, so I don't think it'll do any harm to those who have already made up their minds. But anyone who's still undecided... which let's be honest are mostly middle class whites... could look at last night and go "well at least Trump has some stable people around him."

The flip side, of course, is that Pence doing well... and skipping past the Trump insults and not really defending any of them... has apparently ticked off his orange overlord, and god knows what that might lead ol' baby fingers to do... which could negate any minor bump Pence could have gotten them last night.
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Thank goodness it's the only VP Debate.
 
If there's anything that has made me sympathetic to Hillary Clinton and to honestly consider voting for her, it's Mary J. Blige awkwardly singing "American Skin" to her. Nobody should have to suffer through that misery.
 
Right, so the comedians like John Oliver that incessantly joked about the awkwardness of that interview are being offensive as well?

She had her trapped her in a room and then awkwardly starts singing a song to Clinton that would make anybody feel uneasy given its content and then proceeds to touch her. If that isn't weird (which is the opinion held by literally everybody), I don't know what is.

Keep grasping at straws. Build your safe space. :up:
 
"Safe space"? My goodness. Dave was obviously cracking a joke. I lol'd. Just as I lol'd when John Oliver made you joke on his show this week. ;)
 
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I saw people talking about it on Twitter when it happened, and I was all "Oh cool, I love that song, I hope she records it for real."

Then I saw the actual clip on John Oliver's show, and I was all "Holy shit, that was hilarious, awkward and awesome."
 
538 has talked about it, but North Carolina is really a key state. If Clinton wins that one (and polls have gone back into her favor), the election is pretty sealed for her (not that it wasn't, but some of us still hold onto that anxiety of Trump actually winning).

Still can't believe my home state of Iowa is looking to vote him in. This was a state that was either first, or one of the first to allow SSM. How did that ever pass?

I think the polls will continue to go toward Clinton, but seems like when the dust settles from a convention or debate, the line starts to creep back towards Trump.

If the next two debates go towards Clinton, there's just not enough time to reverse before election day
 
BigMacPhisto said:
Right, so the comedians like John Oliver that incessantly joked about the awkwardness of that interview are being offensive as well?

She had her trapped her in a room and then awkwardly starts singing a song to Clinton that would make anybody feel uneasy given its content and then proceeds to touch her. If that isn't weird (which is the opinion held by literally everybody), I don't know what is.

Keep grasping at straws. Build your safe space. :up:
Click to expand...
True progressives would have gotten the joke.
 
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