2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII - Page 8 - U2 Feedback

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Old 09-16-2016, 03:31 PM   #106
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Note: that's mildly improperly applied statistics, but it still should give an idea of how much of a hole any republican is in due to the state of the blue country. In some sense, the republicans needed a cultural transformation to win this one. They just chose an ass backwards one.

Oh, also, this:

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Old 09-16-2016, 03:41 PM   #107
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Oh, certainly. I don't mean to imply that it's PROBABLE that he'll win, but as the statisticians at 538 say as well, it's not incredibly unlikely.

As a whole, if the election were held today, they put Trump's odds of emerging victorious at 42.7%. 538 are pretty solid at this, and if anything, have highballed Clinton and lowballed Trump during the primaries.

Trump's the underdog, still. But less so than every before.
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Old 09-16-2016, 03:48 PM   #108
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Given everything he has done and said and his massive cash diasdvantage, the fact that Trump is above 40% is absolutely shocking.

Romney was at 20% when the election rolled around and McCain was at a near impossibility that he could win the electoral college. Trump is in a damn good position and as the FiveThirtyEight article that I just posted mentioned, Clinton really doesn't have a built-in Electoral Advantage this time around with Trump being about four times more likely to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. There is no protective Blue Wall this time and a gain of a couple points nationally will suddenly put states like Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in play - any of which could tip it to Trump.
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Old 09-16-2016, 03:51 PM   #109
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The map isn't in republican favor. Nothing to do with Trump, but those numbers aren't good enough. He needs ALL of those states, so if his "odds" of winning just one range somewhere between 50-70%, then the odds of winning all of them are below 10%.
I get the logic, but it's just pretty much wrong. Believe me, FiveThirtyEight factors that into their projections, but all things considered, Trump would reasonably be expected to take all the non-Colorado states in that list Caleb posted. They all give him a significant chance of winning above a coin-flip, and given the information at hand, he'd be expected to win them with ease.

Obviously, if just one of those falls out of his column it's game over and the election can be called right then on that first Tuesday in November.

Just to throw out a hypothetical, I think if the Election were actually held today, he would give Clinton a run for her money and possibly even win and I base that all entirely on the fact that the Get Out The Vote operation is of far more importance to Democrats as they rely on more economically disadvantaged voters that have to be dragged to the polls. So, in theory, a lot of people that will vote Democrat in November won't be on the path to doing so until they get contacted by a field worker in October, etc.

I think Obama probably would have won each election without those voters, to be honest, but it would have been moderately close in 2008 and a nail biter in 2012. Clinton is going to take a lot more effort to get people to actually vote and the polling suggests it will absolutely matter this time.

Again, that debate is going to change everything.
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Old 09-16-2016, 03:56 PM   #110
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Given everything he has done and said and his massive cash diasdvantage, the fact that Trump is above 40% is absolutely shocking.

Romney was at 20% when the election rolled around and McCain was at a near impossibility that he could win the electoral college. Trump is in a damn good position and as the FiveThirtyEight article that I just posted mentioned, Clinton really doesn't have a built-in Electoral Advantage this time around with Trump being about four times more likely to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. There is no protective Blue Wall this time and a gain of a couple points nationally will suddenly put states like Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in play - any of which could tip it to Trump.
I'm starting to think you want Trump to win so you can spend the next four years telling everyone how stupid they were to nominate Hillary and if only Bernie had been the nominee...
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:10 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto View Post
Given everything he has done and said and his massive cash diasdvantage, the fact that Trump is above 40% is absolutely shocking.

Romney was at 20% when the election rolled around and McCain was at a near impossibility that he could win the electoral college. Trump is in a damn good position and as the FiveThirtyEight article that I just posted mentioned, Clinton really doesn't have a built-in Electoral Advantage this time around with Trump being about four times more likely to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. There is no protective Blue Wall this time and a gain of a couple points nationally will suddenly put states like Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in play - any of which could tip it to Trump.

In a polarized country of red versus blue, this shouldn't be shocking. Clinton is an option, and Trump is an option. "Not Trump" is an option, and "Not Clinton" is an option. Some people tend to think that first set and second set are the same thing (they're not).
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:14 PM   #112
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII

A Polite Reminder From The Late Show About Polls
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:15 PM   #113
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Blame the immigrants, the brown people, and the black people. This is how Hitler rose to power. ...

You proved Godwin's Law in record time.

Godwin's Law - As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazism or Hitler approaches 1


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Old 09-16-2016, 04:15 PM   #114
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Clinton just had the worst 2 weeks of her campaign and she took a hit in the polls.

She's back out, Obama, Michele, Bernie, Warren and Biden are all out starting a couple days ago.
Trump just got stuck in this birther thing again, and screwed up the Flint visit royally.

We haven't even had a freaking debate yet! The debates will shift the polls significantly. Not saying it will go Clintons way. But right now, the polls are still swinging. I think she will get a lift over the next week or so and then the debates will be the game-changer.
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:31 PM   #115
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Lay off T.Swizzle or we're gonna have bad blood.
man i've told you a million times that we are never ever ever getting back together.
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:33 PM   #116
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you proved godwin's law in record time.

Godwin's law - as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving nazism or hitler approaches 1


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Old 09-16-2016, 04:41 PM   #117
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Thank you.
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:44 PM   #118
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I get the logic, but it's just pretty much wrong.
Oh yeah? Go on...

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Believe me,
Why the fuck would I do that, Donald?


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FiveThirtyEight factors that into their projections,
This is irrelevant, as we didn't even talk about their "projections."

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but all things considered,
When was the last time you considered everything? That seems to be something frequently missing from your tactic of debate.


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Trump would reasonably be expected to take all the non-Colorado states in that list Caleb posted.
When did we switch from quantitative reasoning to qualitative reasoning? The very basis of my post was if Trump managed to win all of those states. "Reasonably expected" is a hilarious stretch. It's "plausible," but probability (the focus of my post) suggests unfavored.


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They all give him a significant chance of winning above a coin-flip, and given the information at hand, he'd be expected to win them with ease.
What the hell are you talking about? The whole discussion is about the odds Caleb posted for each state. "They all" don't give him a "significant" chance of winning above a coin flip. They give him the odds posted right fucking above. And it's asinine to think either candidate would have odds "well above a coin flip" for any state at this point. "Expected to win with ease" my ass. Babbling garbage.


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Obviously, if just one of those falls out of his column it's game over and the election can be called right then on that first Tuesday in November.
They're not in his column! They're battleground states! For a reason! Having a 50-70% odds of winning something is NOT the same thing as polling 50-70%.
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:49 PM   #119
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You proved Godwin's Law in record time.

Godwin's Law - As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazism or Hitler approaches 1


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Just the truth man. You want to bury your head in the sand and pretend the threat isn't real, go ahead.

I wasn't referring to you, btw, when I was talking about people being racist and blaming the other. I was referring to all those people at the rallies, who appear to be less educated than you, who can be regularly heard uttering racist, sexist, and homophobic slurs(n word, see you next tuesday, f word), who cheer raucously when Trump talks about rounding up all the Mexican immigrants and deporting them and tearing their families apart, who so often chant 'hang the bitch' and 'kill the bitch', who think Obama wasn't born here, etc etc etc.

I honestly don't think you're one of them. I wouldn't bother debating with you if I did. But there are a lot of them and they are a sizable portion of his base and to pretend that isn't real is to bury your head in the sand.
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Old 09-16-2016, 04:51 PM   #120
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You proved Godwin's Law in record time.

Godwin's Law - As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazism or Hitler approaches 1


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And 98% of the time it would be an unfair comparison, this falls outside that %


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