2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII - Page 7 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 09-16-2016, 09:22 AM   #91
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: nyc
Posts: 52,266
Local Time: 04:27 PM
How is Trump doing this? That's pretty simple...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...=mobilebar&v=1


He's not.
__________________

__________________
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 09:50 AM   #92
Blue Crack Addict
 
Vlad n U 2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 27,394
Local Time: 07:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by namkcuR View Post
The GOP's socialist and communist attacks would have been vicious and relentless, and I wanted to see him be able to combat that by saying, listen, in a soviet-type communist system, the government owns everything, there is no freedom of the press and freedom of speech is very limited. We would have to repeal several amendments from the bill of rights including the first amendment. And do you seriously think this is what I want? Do you think I want to take away your freedom of speech, have you live in a society where the only news you get is the news the government produces, where every good you buy is manufactured by the government, etc etc, is that really what you think I want? That's ridiculous! All I want is for everyone to have healthcare, for the minimum wage to be higher, and for quality education to be available to everyone, that is it!
I'm generally reluctant to post on this board nowadays but - that Sanders would (and has) succumbed to red-baiting isn't a good thing by any stretch. Additionally, I believe it would further benefit conservatives as Bernie as it spreads misinformation regarding an ideology and its aims, it would play right into their hands. Preferably, if Bernie really knew his stuff, he'd say 'no, I do not support the elimination of class and state (for instance), as I prefer to implement social programs benefiting the American people through reforms etc. etc.' Now that approach would deserve much more respect.

Bernie, after all, is mild as.
__________________

__________________
Vlad n U 2 is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 10:06 AM   #93
Blue Crack Addict
 
Hewson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Your own private Idaho
Posts: 24,573
Local Time: 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
How is Trump doing this? That's pretty simple...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...=mobilebar&v=1


He's not.
But he's closed the gap in a month from 89% Typhoid Hill - 11% Orange Donnie to 60% Entitled Liar - 40% Spray Tanned Bigot, so I wouldn't count him out just yet.
__________________
Hewson is online now  
Old 09-16-2016, 10:14 AM   #94
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: nyc
Posts: 52,266
Local Time: 04:27 PM
Nah.

He's counted out, barring something shocking or absolutely stupid by the Clinton campaign.

Did anyone really expect her expected win percentage to stay in the high 70s? Of course it was going to close. But it's still a huge gap.

End of the day Trump is a candidate with no ideas, who alienates very important voting blocks, and has zero ground game.
__________________
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 10:44 AM   #95
Blue Crack Addict
 
DaveC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: at the stock market doing a business
Posts: 16,386
Local Time: 04:27 PM
i can't for the life of me understand why when there is one poll showing Trump leading in a state in which he wasn't previously, or closes by a point nationally, people here seem to completely forget that the electoral college is a thing.
__________________
DaveC is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 10:49 AM   #96
Blue Crack Addict
 
phanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: in the darkness on the edge of town
Posts: 24,960
Local Time: 04:27 PM
Yeah, this still won't be close in the end.
__________________
phanan is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 11:04 AM   #97
ONE
love, blood, life
 
LuckyNumber7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Leicester, UK
Posts: 11,276
Local Time: 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
i can't for the life of me understand why when there is one poll showing Trump leading in a state in which he wasn't previously, or closes by a point nationally, people here seem to completely forget that the electoral college is a thing.

Because on the major media outlets, it gets advertised as "breaking news: Trump now leading Clinton in battleground state x y and z."

They want it to be closer than it is, because the media makes their dime based upon how much you watch.
__________________
LuckyNumber7 is online now  
Old 09-16-2016, 12:23 PM   #98
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
BigMacPhisto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,951
Local Time: 04:27 PM
People aren't forgetting about the Electoral College, if you look at the map, it's clear that Trump could very well take states like Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio on Election Day. Right now, it's at the point where it would all come down to Pennsylvania. When polls from that state start looking real close, then it will be time for worry.
__________________
BigMacPhisto is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 12:58 PM   #99
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: nyc
Posts: 52,266
Local Time: 04:27 PM
If it's the middle of October and Trump has an electoral college lead in most polls, worry.

Until then, this race still isn't close.
__________________
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 01:02 PM   #100
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
BigMacPhisto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,951
Local Time: 04:27 PM
natesilver: I’m semi-tempted to go on a rant about how Democrats are abusing the “Look at the state polls!” argument incorrectly, as a way to deny that the race has tightened

From: Why Is Trump Gaining On Clinton? | FiveThirtyEight


Trump also has an alternate path to victory that not a lot of people are noticing. Romney States + Nevada + Iowa + Florida + Ohio + North Carolina + Colorado would give him the victory. And I think Colorado might be an easier flip than Pennsylvania. Two of the last three polls of Colorado had a sizable Trump lead.
__________________
BigMacPhisto is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 02:09 PM   #101
Blue Crack Addict
 
DaveC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: at the stock market doing a business
Posts: 16,386
Local Time: 04:27 PM
sure. and taylor swift might stop by this evening to give me a handjob too.
__________________
DaveC is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 03:01 PM   #102
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: nyc
Posts: 52,266
Local Time: 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
sure. and taylor swift might stop by this evening to give me a handjob too.
Lay off T.Swizzle or we're gonna have bad blood.
__________________
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 03:07 PM   #103
Rock n' Roll Doggie
VIP PASS
 
BigMacPhisto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 5,951
Local Time: 04:27 PM
I don't see why it's so far-fetched. All he has to do is move the general election needle another two points and that will effectively cement wins (if the election were held today) in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa where he's already leading on FiveThirtyEight and give him the coin flip advantage in Nevada.

Colorado would then become an actual race and his Pennsylvania chances won't be so woeful.

Trump is currently leading by quite a bit in Maine's 2nd District as well. Just something to look out for as I can't come up with a scenario where that one electoral vote will actually matter.

Still not sure why Republicans didn't just game the system in all the state houses. A lot of blue states have red control at the state level and could have easily changed the electoral allotments to effectively give Republicans votes for states that they would lose on the whole. Do that in a couple of states and Trump would become President.


And a few minutes later, I notice FiveThirtyEight just made the same argument I just made if Trump moves up a bit more in the polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ood-as-obamas/
__________________
BigMacPhisto is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 03:15 PM   #104
War Child
 
Caleb8844's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 618
Local Time: 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto View Post
natesilver: I’m semi-tempted to go on a rant about how Democrats are abusing the “Look at the state polls!” argument incorrectly, as a way to deny that the race has tightened

From: Why Is Trump Gaining On Clinton? | FiveThirtyEight


Trump also has an alternate path to victory that not a lot of people are noticing. Romney States + Nevada + Iowa + Florida + Ohio + North Carolina + Colorado would give him the victory. And I think Colorado might be an easier flip than Pennsylvania. Two of the last three polls of Colorado had a sizable Trump lead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
sure. and taylor swift might stop by this evening to give me a handjob too.
According to fivethirtyeight, if the election were held today, Trump's odds of winning the above states are as follows:

Nevada: 55.0% chance of winning
Iowa: 70.6% chance of winning
Florida: 56.5% chance of winning
Ohio: 62.6% chance of winning
North Carolina: 56.7% chance of winning
Colorado: 37.9% chance of winning

I wish my odds of getting a tswift handjob were as high as Dave's apparently are.

This is getting close enough that it almost makes me wanna stop bashing Clinton.
__________________
Caleb8844 is offline  
Old 09-16-2016, 03:27 PM   #105
ONE
love, blood, life
 
LuckyNumber7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Leicester, UK
Posts: 11,276
Local Time: 05:27 PM
2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb8844 View Post
According to fivethirtyeight, if the election were held today, Trump's odds of winning the above states are as follows:

Nevada: 55.0% chance of winning
Iowa: 70.6% chance of winning
Florida: 56.5% chance of winning
Ohio: 62.6% chance of winning
North Carolina: 56.7% chance of winning
Colorado: 37.9% chance of winning

I wish my odds of getting a tswift handjob were as high as Dave's apparently are.

This is getting close enough that it almost makes me wanna stop bashing Clinton.

You think that's good for Trump?

Trump can take literally all of those states where he's "favored," and if Clinton just takes PA/MI/WI/VA/CO, she's won.

The map isn't in republican favor. Nothing to do with Trump, but those numbers aren't good enough. He needs ALL of those states, so if his "odds" of winning just one range somewhere between 50-70%, then the odds of winning all of them are below 10%.
__________________

__________________
LuckyNumber7 is online now  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:27 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com