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Old 10-05-2016, 08:15 PM   #871
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[QUOTE=BEAL;8108670

Still can't believe my home state of Iowa is looking to vote him in. This was a state that was either first, or one of the first to allow SSM. How did that ever pass?

[/QUOTE]



A high percentage of white men without college degrees. That's Trump's base.

NC and VA have become highly educated states over the past 10-15 years, enough to occasionally overcome their Confederate roots.
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:24 PM   #872
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For what it's worth, Trump is doing significantly worse with whites than Romney overall. He'd probably be leading right no if he had Romney's advantage among whites. Basically, the more on-the-fence white voters hear from Donald Trump, particularly those with degrees, the more they end up gravitating towards some other candidate.
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:32 PM   #873
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I think this belongs here as much as the other part of the forum.

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Old 10-06-2016, 12:23 AM   #874
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There are a lot of axioms in American politics but one of the most true is that nobody votes on the VP candidates. It literally does not matter what they said or did in that debate - especially in how completely whitebread they are - and contrasted to their 100% Name Recognition running mates.

Nobody cares. The people most geeked out about that VP debate are people already engaged and relatively informed (read: not undecided about this one). Sarah Palin proved it doesn't even matter if you're unfit to be President - nobody cares about VP.

Most all of us will struggle to remember Mike Pence's name in 5 years.

"Oh yeah, I forgot all about that guy."
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Old 10-06-2016, 12:27 AM   #875
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Originally Posted by U2DMfan View Post
There are a lot of axioms in American politics but one of the most true is that nobody votes on the VP candidates. It literally does not matter what they said or did in that debate - especially in how completely whitebread they are - and contrasted to their 100% Name Recognition running mates.

Nobody cares. The people most geeked out about that VP debate are people already engaged and relatively informed (read: not undecided about this one). Sarah Palin proved it doesn't even matter if you're unfit to be President - nobody cares about VP.

Most all of us will struggle to remember Mike Pence's name in 5 years.

"Oh yeah, I forgot all about that guy."
Off the top of my head I genuinely cannot recall Romney's running mate right now.
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Old 10-06-2016, 12:33 AM   #876
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All it did for me was reinforce how woefully inept Trump is. Pence may be a bad dude but holy shit he seemed like Gandhi compared with Trump.


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Old 10-06-2016, 02:07 AM   #877
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Great article.

Third-Party Voters Know What They Want - The New York Times
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Old 10-06-2016, 06:58 AM   #878
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII

Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
A high percentage of white men without college degrees. That's Trump's base.

NC and VA have become highly educated states over the past 10-15 years, enough to occasionally overcome their Confederate roots.

North Carolina and Ohio have been fascinating this election. It seems quite possible that the former will break for Clinton while the latter breaks for Trump; at the very least, North Carolina will probably turn out to be the bluer of the two.

This makes sense in the context of Trump being the GOP candidate. But I have to wonder if it is the start of a sort of realignment where Republicans really take the white, working class base that the Democrats used to rely on in the Midwest while the urbanized parts of the south - the New South - goes more to the Democrats, based on a combination of well-educated whites and minorities of all backgrounds. Virginia was first here, North Carolina second. Georgia is next, and Texas is the big prize.

This would fit with a bigger realignment in general of politics along the lines of open vs. closed to the world. If the GOP keeps harping on protectionist themes along with immigration, this'll be more likely. Of course, the DNC is acting fairly protectionist at the moment too, but at least open on immigration, and it wouldn't shock me to see the GOP become the more clearly-protectionist party.


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Old 10-06-2016, 07:17 AM   #879
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Off the top of my head I genuinely cannot recall Romney's running mate right now.
Current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan
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Old 10-06-2016, 07:23 AM   #880
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Originally Posted by U2DMfan View Post
There are a lot of axioms in American politics but one of the most true is that nobody votes on the VP candidates. It literally does not matter what they said or did in that debate - especially in how completely whitebread they are - and contrasted to their 100% Name Recognition running mates.

Nobody cares. The people most geeked out about that VP debate are people already engaged and relatively informed (read: not undecided about this one). Sarah Palin proved it doesn't even matter if you're unfit to be President - nobody cares about VP.

Most all of us will struggle to remember Mike Pence's name in 5 years.

"Oh yeah, I forgot all about that guy."
I think "nobody cares" is under selling a bit. I think its more like, a good VP pick doesn't really help or hurt you but a poor choice can hurt you.
Most of the time the public pays little attention to the VP candidates, but there are a couple of exceptions where the pick can be a factor in the election, but a negative factor for the top of the ticket. See Palin, Sarah.
Not saying McCain wins with a better VP pick in 2008, but he probably has a stronger showing.
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Old 10-06-2016, 07:30 AM   #881
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Originally Posted by Hewson View Post
Current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan

Huh, I don't remember his involvement at all, which just goes to prove the point about the irrelevance of the VP pick.
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Old 10-06-2016, 07:58 AM   #882
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Huh, I don't remember his involvement at all, which just goes to prove the point about the irrelevance of the VP pick.

I think you're sort of stepping on your own words with that. Paul Ryan was a nobody, and now he's effectively the leader of the our congress and third in line for the presidency were something to happen. The VP picks are very important, as you're sort of bringing the spotlight on somebody.

Look at Sarah Palin. She become some figurehead. Not the kind of person I want to see as a voice of authority.
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Old 10-06-2016, 08:08 AM   #883
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I think you're sort of stepping on your own words with that. Paul Ryan was a nobody, and now he's effectively the leader of the our congress and third in line for the presidency were something to happen. The VP picks are very important, as you're sort of bringing the spotlight on somebody.

Look at Sarah Palin. She become some figurehead. Not the kind of person I want to see as a voice of authority.
I only meant irrelevance in the wider consciousness at the time. As Hewson says, it's only a bad pick that really stands out - though I'd disagree that a good pick neither helps nor hurts. It can be useful in mobilising specific ideological/geographical sections of the base, even if it doesn't directly sway any meaningful amount of undecideds.

But as you say it's obviously very significant for the trajectory of the VP candidate's career and, if they don't fuck up, cementing their status within the party and its core supporters.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 10-06-2016, 08:59 AM   #884
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(not that it wasn't, but some of us still hold onto that anxiety of Trump actually winning).
This is me. That's why I don't visit this thread for days at a time, or check the news apps for days at a time. I can't take the anxiety.
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Old 10-06-2016, 09:05 AM   #885
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I only meant irrelevance in the wider consciousness at the time. As Hewson says, it's only a bad pick that really stands out - though I'd disagree that a good pick neither helps nor hurts. It can be useful in mobilising specific ideological/geographical sections of the base, even if it doesn't directly sway any meaningful amount of undecideds.



But as you say it's obviously very significant for the trajectory of the VP candidate's career and, if they don't fuck up, cementing their status within the party and its core supporters.

I suppose the only thing I'd agree with about a VP pick neither helping nor hurting you is what is a "safe" pick. Kaine/Ryan/Biden were all safe picks. It's the wildcard picks like Palin/Pence/Lieberman who are used to compensate. Palin of course was an attempt to diversify the ticket. Pence to draw the party base back. Lieberman to draw the "moral conservative America" away from the Lewinsky scandal from the Bush-Gore administration.

Typically those compensatory picks hurt more than they help, but you also usually see them on the less favored of sides, I think.
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