Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
BEAL;8108670 Still can't believe my home state of Iowa is looking to vote him in. This was a state that was either first said:
2016 US Presidential Election Thread XIII
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BigMacPhisto
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For what it's worth, Trump is doing significantly worse with whites than Romney overall. He'd probably be leading right no if he had Romney's advantage among whites. Basically, the more on-the-fence white voters hear from Donald Trump, particularly those with degrees, the more they end up gravitating towards some other candidate.
corianderstem
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I think this belongs here as much as the other part of the forum.
U2DMfan
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There are a lot of axioms in American politics but one of the most true is that nobody votes on the VP candidates. It literally does not matter what they said or did in that debate - especially in how completely whitebread they are - and contrasted to their 100% Name Recognition running mates.
Nobody cares. The people most geeked out about that VP debate are people already engaged and relatively informed (read: not undecided about this one). Sarah Palin proved it doesn't even matter if you're unfit to be President - nobody cares about VP.
Most all of us will struggle to remember Mike Pence's name in 5 years.
"Oh yeah, I forgot all about that guy."
Nobody cares. The people most geeked out about that VP debate are people already engaged and relatively informed (read: not undecided about this one). Sarah Palin proved it doesn't even matter if you're unfit to be President - nobody cares about VP.
Most all of us will struggle to remember Mike Pence's name in 5 years.
"Oh yeah, I forgot all about that guy."
Off the top of my head I genuinely cannot recall Romney's running mate right now.
cobl04
45:33
All it did for me was reinforce how woefully inept Trump is. Pence may be a bad dude but holy shit he seemed like Gandhi compared with Trump.
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BigMacPhisto
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North Carolina and Ohio have been fascinating this election. It seems quite possible that the former will break for Clinton while the latter breaks for Trump; at the very least, North Carolina will probably turn out to be the bluer of the two.
This makes sense in the context of Trump being the GOP candidate. But I have to wonder if it is the start of a sort of realignment where Republicans really take the white, working class base that the Democrats used to rely on in the Midwest while the urbanized parts of the south - the New South - goes more to the Democrats, based on a combination of well-educated whites and minorities of all backgrounds. Virginia was first here, North Carolina second. Georgia is next, and Texas is the big prize.
This would fit with a bigger realignment in general of politics along the lines of open vs. closed to the world. If the GOP keeps harping on protectionist themes along with immigration, this'll be more likely. Of course, the DNC is acting fairly protectionist at the moment too, but at least open on immigration, and it wouldn't shock me to see the GOP become the more clearly-protectionist party.
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Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
I think "nobody cares" is under selling a bit. I think its more like, a good VP pick doesn't really help or hurt you but a poor choice can hurt you.
Most of the time the public pays little attention to the VP candidates, but there are a couple of exceptions where the pick can be a factor in the election, but a negative factor for the top of the ticket. See Palin, Sarah.
Not saying McCain wins with a better VP pick in 2008, but he probably has a stronger showing.
Huh, I don't remember his involvement at all, which just goes to prove the point about the irrelevance of the VP pick.
LuckyNumber7
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I think you're sort of stepping on your own words with that. Paul Ryan was a nobody, and now he's effectively the leader of the our congress and third in line for the presidency were something to happen. The VP picks are very important, as you're sort of bringing the spotlight on somebody.
Look at Sarah Palin. She become some figurehead. Not the kind of person I want to see as a voice of authority.
I only meant irrelevance in the wider consciousness at the time. As Hewson says, it's only a bad pick that really stands out - though I'd disagree that a good pick neither helps nor hurts. It can be useful in mobilising specific ideological/geographical sections of the base, even if it doesn't directly sway any meaningful amount of undecideds.
But as you say it's obviously very significant for the trajectory of the VP candidate's career and, if they don't fuck up, cementing their status within the party and its core supporters.
martha
Blue Crack Supplier
This is me. That's why I don't visit this thread for days at a time, or check the news apps for days at a time. I can't take the anxiety.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I suppose the only thing I'd agree with about a VP pick neither helping nor hurting you is what is a "safe" pick. Kaine/Ryan/Biden were all safe picks. It's the wildcard picks like Palin/Pence/Lieberman who are used to compensate. Palin of course was an attempt to diversify the ticket. Pence to draw the party base back. Lieberman to draw the "moral conservative America" away from the Lewinsky scandal from the Bush-Gore administration.
Typically those compensatory picks hurt more than they help, but you also usually see them on the less favored of sides, I think.
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
What do you have to be anxious about, Trumps chances of winning are akin to Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson in his prime, or George Mason making the final four or Leicester City winning the Premier League.
martha
Blue Crack Supplier
See, I don't understand any of these analogies, so I don't know if I should be worried or not.
Hewson
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martha
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Not sure that made me feel better.
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LuckyNumber7
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DaveC
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on the bright side, if for some reason trump does end up turning this around in a month, you're about to witness the probably most dramatic and volatile swing in american political history.
but really, there's nothing to worry about because trump has come to realize that even though he wants to win for the sake of his ego, he doesn't want the job and can't do the job, so he's obviously in full tank mode now.
but really, there's nothing to worry about because trump has come to realize that even though he wants to win for the sake of his ego, he doesn't want the job and can't do the job, so he's obviously in full tank mode now.
BigMacPhisto
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I don't believe in a tank mode whatsoever. Did he enter this trying to win it? No, it was a stupid publicity stunt and the plan was that he would pull out in time to film a new Apprentice season with the extra hype.
But then once it became clear that he could win the nomination, he's been all in. The missteps and egregious statements are just Trump being Trump. I don't see any difference between his actions now or 18 months ago.
Another interesting piece:
Clinton Gaining Among Millennials, But Obstacles Remain | RealClearPolitics
"In Florida, the problem is perhaps most pronounced. Trump led narrowly in the RCP average for much of September, but Clinton has regained a 2.9 percentage point lead, according to the current average. But the race there has remained relatively tight throughout the campaign, and the state is another critical part of Trump’s narrow Electoral College path.
In a Mason-Dixon poll of the state in late August, Clinton led by 45 percent-29 percent among voters under 35, with 14 percent supporting Johnson, the libertarian. In late September, after the first debate, 49 percent supported Clinton while 32 percent backed Trump and 13 percent favored Johnson. Those numbers might not be enough for Clinton, however.
The reason: Obama narrowly defeated Romney by 75,000 votes in the state in 2012, but Baumann said just 5 percent of the likely millennial voting population there amounts to approximately 95,000 votes.
“The difference between Hillary Clinton getting 50 versus 55 percent of millennials in Florida could very easily be the difference between winning and losing,” Baumann said."
But then once it became clear that he could win the nomination, he's been all in. The missteps and egregious statements are just Trump being Trump. I don't see any difference between his actions now or 18 months ago.
Another interesting piece:
Clinton Gaining Among Millennials, But Obstacles Remain | RealClearPolitics
"In Florida, the problem is perhaps most pronounced. Trump led narrowly in the RCP average for much of September, but Clinton has regained a 2.9 percentage point lead, according to the current average. But the race there has remained relatively tight throughout the campaign, and the state is another critical part of Trump’s narrow Electoral College path.
In a Mason-Dixon poll of the state in late August, Clinton led by 45 percent-29 percent among voters under 35, with 14 percent supporting Johnson, the libertarian. In late September, after the first debate, 49 percent supported Clinton while 32 percent backed Trump and 13 percent favored Johnson. Those numbers might not be enough for Clinton, however.
The reason: Obama narrowly defeated Romney by 75,000 votes in the state in 2012, but Baumann said just 5 percent of the likely millennial voting population there amounts to approximately 95,000 votes.
“The difference between Hillary Clinton getting 50 versus 55 percent of millennials in Florida could very easily be the difference between winning and losing,” Baumann said."
martha
Blue Crack Supplier
And now I'm back on a break from this thread.
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Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
yes, definitely. good analysis. and it is in step with global trends (i.e., Brexit).
this would essentially mean that the Romney-type crowd would become Democrats, and the Reagan Democrats now fully Republican. it's almost a total reversal of where we were in 1980. it's interesting that minority voters are more inclined to stay with the "open" crowd, because their education tells them to be inclusive of difference and sensitive to minority issues, even if the policies that may be adopted by this "open" party in the future might actually be to their detriment, sort of like the religious right and the pre-Trump GOP.
DaveC
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corianderstem
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Well, now THAT song is in my head.
You fucker.
You fucker.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
.
corianderstem
Blue Crack Distributor
I'm going to create a deep jar and make you put in two dollars whenever you post something particularly deep-y.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
When I get 50 I can go see the corner lady.
corianderstem
Blue Crack Distributor
Why wait? Lance's mom charges half that.
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