2016 US Presidential Election Thread - VIII

[mikal]

I am encouraged that Bernie mentioned over the weekend that they might "re-evaluate" after then next set of primaries. Hopefully that means lightening up on the attacks and getting closer to a unified message. I'll applaud Bernie if this happens.

 

[BEAL]

Maybe, we'll see

 

[womanfish]

Yep, been seeing that for months. Either write in Bernie, or Jill Stein

Even go as far to say they would rather see the country burn under Trump, than give up their values and vote for Hillary

Not selfish at all

At this point, what respect I had for Sanders, slowly degraded and now is in a nose-dive.
His continued attacking of Clinton, when there is no path for him, and now when asked if he will support Clinton if shes the nominee, he says that it's up to Clinton to pretty much adopt his platform. Yesterday he used the same wording as Trump, and said the Dem party hasn't been fair to him. Jesus. the delusion.

It seems he has followed his supporters lead, instead of the other way around. It's really odd.
Clinton shifted to supporting Obama in a big way in 2008. And that's what an adult does.
He's becoming like a petulant child. Everything isn't fair, is rigged, stolen, fraud, taken, etc...

If he doesn't come out after his ass whooping tomorrow and make at least some outreach to Clinton supporters, and gesturing to his own supporters the importance of getting behind a nominee to beat Trump, then it's gonna be really ugly from here on out. much uglier than i thought it might be.

 

[womanfish]

How is that different than the PUMA movement in '08? Come November, if Trump or Cruz is the Republican nominee, they will vote Clinton.

Theres a difference this time. In 08, I think the PUMA's were pissed because Obama came from behind and took what they thought was a sure thing. And a sure thing from what was going to be the first woman president. Which was pretty important to a lot of people.

This time. Its not like that. These people wouldn't piss on Hillary if she were on fire. The brainwashing has been successful and complete. The narrative, pounded in by the right wing for 20 years, got picked up by a progressive who labeled himself a Democrat. So it gave validity to it. Now its not just strange right wingers. Its coming from all sides and for people who were born in 1997, with absolutely zero political history or precedence, it is gospel.

I think that when all is said and done, about 10% won't go to Clinton and thats only IF Bernie is supportive. If he's not. I put it more at 15-20

 

[womanfish]

I am encouraged that Bernie mentioned over the weekend that they might "re-evaluate" after then next set of primaries. Hopefully that means lightening up on the attacks and getting closer to a unified message. I'll applaud Bernie if this happens.

I will definitely applaud him. He would win back a lot of lost respect I've had for him. But part of me thinks, a lot of real damage has been done. Plenty of 18-25 year olds, were in this only for him and would imagine they don't give a shit, beyond that, even if bernie does support her fully.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

That's pretty sad.

Neither one deserves to be the nominee if they have to resort to that kind of nonsense rather than just get enough people to support them.

I'd call it tactical, and accepting of reality. There's no way either of them can win, but together they still do represent everyone who doesn't want Trump (which may or may not be the majority).

 

[BVS]

I think a 4-way the GOPestablishment ticket is DOA. Trump has a core support that won't sway. With the Bernie-Clinton split mirroring the Democrat primary, they would be very vulnerable in ceding those states to Trump. I can easily see Trump getting above 300 electoral votes.

A Ryan/Kasich ticket wins only Wisconsin, Ohio, Utah

Clinton wins Mass, RI, NY, Maryland, Illinois, California, New Mexico, Delaware, DC

Bernie wins Vermont, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii

Trump takes everything else. NJ and CT in a squeaker.

Don't underestimate the devastation caused by a split of HRC - Bernie wings of the party. The establishment really does not want Cruz so my hypothetical takes him out of contention. An anointed ticket created out of thin air may only attract 25-30% of GOP inclined voters. Bernie Hillary fracture is closer to 50-50 nationally. Trump has independent crossover appeal in states like PA and MI.


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Trump support is dying fast, especially in the independents. No way does he have the ability to get those numbers.


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[deep]

Yep, been seeing that for months. Either write in Bernie, or Jill Stein

Even go as far to say they would rather see the country burn under Trump, than give up their values and vote for Hillary

Not selfish at all

Without the progressive Nader voters standing their ground in 2000 there would have been no Obama in 2008.
Yes, a high price was paid with W as president. With Obama we got marriage rights for all and a 2-3 supreme Court picks that will last decades. So maybe progressives should hold fast to their principles

 

[deep]

No 4 way or 3 way
And Trump has a real shot at 270, best of any of the GOP.

 

[mikal]

No 4 way or 3 way
And Trump has a real shot at 270, best of any of the GOP.

How? What states do you actually see him turning from red to blue?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

How? What states do you actually see him turning from red to blue?

I think he has a real chance, if elected. Because Trump himself can turn red to blue and make stupid people forget all the shit he's said. Look at the way he approached the gender-bathroom thing in NC. He scares me with his ability to make people side with him, regardless of what he says.

Though, he's trending down so that would have to change.

 

[Bluer White]

You never know with the youth vote.

I was in that group when I started following the forum...

 

[Oregoropa]

Trump support is dying fast, especially in the independents. No way does he have the ability to get those numbers.


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I beg to differ on the numbers. Trump is closing the gap in the RCP average on a head to head matchup with HRC. It's still not optimal for Trump with at Clinton +8.5 but last month it was double digits. A recent GWU/Battleground poll has Clinton +3 with 11% undecided. Within the margin of error.

I will also make a bold prediction that Trump will be the best performing Republican with African-Americans should he end up the top of the ticket. He has universal name recognition. Not tough to break Romney's 7% performance. McCain did poorly as well if I recall.

One more takeaway are the unfavorable ratings in the GWU poll.

- Trump 65%
- Clinton 56%
- Cruz 55%

It's going to be a nasty fight regardless with some people staying home or holding their noses to vote. If I were on the Democrat side I wouldn't necessarily be giddy to face Trump. He has defied the odds and is a Kingslayer taking down the anointed GOP figureheads of Jeb! And Rubio(with an assist from Christie).

The 4 way split fascinates me. You can call me crazy, that's fine, or I prefer the "Red Team" bringing a different set of eyes to a possible outcome. Haven't chimed in as much recently. Just watching you guys debate in here. I'm not gonna come in throwing bombs and calling names. The statistics, ups, downs, of this election cycle are truly reality tv, but potentially historic. And there is something we can all agree on ...

Fuck Ted Cruz


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[Headache in a Suitcase]

I beg to differ on the numbers. Trump is closing the gap in the RCP average on a head to head matchup with HRC. It's still not optimal for Trump with at Clinton +8.5 but last month it was double digits. A recent GWU/Battleground poll has Clinton +3 with 11% undecided. Within the margin of error.

I will also make a bold prediction that Trump will be the best performing Republican with African-Americans should he end up the top of the ticket. He has universal name recognition. Not tough to break Romney's 7% performance. McCain did poorly as well if I recall.

One more takeaway are the unfavorable ratings in the GWU poll.

- Trump 65%
- Clinton 56%
- Cruz 55%

It's going to be a nasty fight regardless with some people staying home or holding their noses to vote. If I were on the Democrat side I wouldn't necessarily be giddy to face Trump. He has defied the odds and is a Kingslayer taking down the anointed GOP figureheads of Jeb! And Rubio(with an assist from Christie).

The 4 way split fascinates me. You can call me crazy, that's fine, or I prefer the "Red Team" bringing a different set of eyes to a possible outcome. Haven't chimed in as much recently. Just watching you guys debate in here. I'm not gonna come in throwing bombs and calling names. The statistics, ups, downs, of this election cycle are truly reality tv, but potentially historic. And there is something we can all agree on ...

Fuck Ted Cruz


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This is an honest question... how do you account for Trump taking swing states when he can't get over 40% in his own party?

If anything, his core 30% being so strong may actually hurt him if he pivots middle. He's been so strongly anti establishment that he would be seen as just an enormous hypocrite. How does he fight against that?

Or are you in agreement that many of his supporters simply don't know any better and will support him no matter what?

 

[BVS]

I beg to differ on the numbers. Trump is closing the gap in the RCP average on a head to head matchup with HRC. It's still not optimal for Trump with at Clinton +8.5 but last month it was double digits. A recent GWU/Battleground poll has Clinton +3 with 11% undecided. Within the margin of error.

Closing the gap means nothing in a four way, it also comes down to what states could he flip?

I will also make a bold prediction that Trump will be the best performing Republican with African-Americans should he end up the top of the ticket. He has universal name recognition. Not tough to break Romney's 7% performance. McCain did poorly as well if I recall.

The recent polls have him between 4%-12% with African Americans. His touting of 25% came from a right wing poll in September.

It's going to be a nasty fight regardless with some people staying home or holding their noses to vote. If I were on the Democrat side I wouldn't necessarily be giddy to face Trump. He has defied the odds and is a Kingslayer taking down the anointed GOP figureheads of Jeb! And Rubio(with an assist from Christie).



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Yes, it's going to be nasty, and that's when Trump gets more childlike, that will not bode well in the general election.


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[mikal]

Closing the gap means nothing in a four way

Ron Jeremy begs to differ.

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[BVS]

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[cobl04]

Man I really don't think there's anything uglier than partisan support. On any side. There is one woman on Twitter I followed back when Baltimore blew up, she was terrific, but these days literally every tweet and RT, several in an hour, is about Bernie, whether it's a really shithouse "dank" meme, or constant complaining about Hillary... I'm about as left as they come and it just makes my skin coil. It's hideous.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

[youtube]NHS-K7OuLAc[/youtube]

 

[Mack_Again]

[youtube]NHS-K7OuLAc[/youtube]

that's like 99% of what Jimmy Dore says.

 

[Hewson]

Ron Jeremy begs to differ.

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[Irvine511]

[youtube]NHS-K7OuLAc[/youtube]

just change "lame-stream" to "corporate" media and, well, these are the conversations i read on Facebook (and keep my damn mouth shut).

what i find so interesting about people who advocate for candidates who aren't presently front-runners, in this or other elections, is the blame-the-media strategy -- the right has been doing it for years, "liberal media bias," but now i'm hearing it from the left about "corporate media" -- as well as the overuse and misuse of the word "narrative." The common "well, that's what THEY want you to believe" is maddening.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I don't think there's any media malice about the Sanders campaign.

But I do think early on, he wasn't taken legitimately and that probably really helped Clinton with name recognition in early voting states. I don't think that was some ploy from the media... to be honest it would've been a ploy had they been talking too much about Sanders (a ploy to strength competition against Clinton so they have stuff to talk about).

 

[Irvine511]

I don't think there's any media malice about the Sanders campaign.

But I do think early on, he wasn't taken legitimately and that probably really helped Clinton with name recognition in early voting states. I don't think that was some ploy from the media... to be honest it would've been a ploy had they been talking too much about Sanders (a ploy to strength competition against Clinton so they have stuff to talk about).

i agree, but where you see the natural course of events others see CONSPIRACY and CLINTON NEWS NETWORK and THE BANKERS ARE SCARED OF BERNIE SO THEY ARE BLACKING HIM OUT.

i probably know too many people in San Francisco.




KIDDING.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I dunno. It's a good story. It's one of the talking points of his campaign. Really big corporations will use you.

I'd say that much is true, but I don't know about any conspiracy. I'm not a fan.

The only conspiracy I truly believe is that the NHL helped fix game 6 of the Panthers-Islanders playoff game to help the repairing image of the now-in-Brooklyn New York Islanders. Just saying. This was probably Clinton's doing.

 

[anitram]

I like Bernie Sanders on a personal level, I think he's a decent human being and seems to have stood for something in his life. But I really hope he moves on quickly and puts all of us out of our collective miseries. He has done well to push HC to the left on some issues and if she and her team are intelligent, they will work with him to on one or two things that are meaningful to him and his supporters. Let this show get on the road already.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

My lord Ted Cruz is trying to rip off Hoosiers in his speech.

At what level of self loathing do you have to be to attend a Ted Cruz rally?

 

[mikal]

Is there anyone creepier than Ted Cruz in the history of the presidential race?

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[Headache in a Suitcase]

Did Dennis Hastert ever run?

 

[Oregoropa]

Meanwhile Michael Stipe must be channeling Rip Van Winkle. WTF.



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