I think a 4-way the GOPestablishment ticket is DOA. Trump has a core support that won't sway. With the Bernie-Clinton split mirroring the Democrat primary, they would be very vulnerable in ceding those states to Trump. I can easily see Trump getting above 300 electoral votes.
A Ryan/Kasich ticket wins only Wisconsin, Ohio, Utah
Clinton wins Mass, RI, NY, Maryland, Illinois, California, New Mexico, Delaware, DC
Bernie wins Vermont, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii
Trump takes everything else. NJ and CT in a squeaker.
Don't underestimate the devastation caused by a split of HRC - Bernie wings of the party. The establishment really does not want Cruz so my hypothetical takes him out of contention. An anointed ticket created out of thin air may only attract 25-30% of GOP inclined voters. Bernie Hillary fracture is closer to 50-50 nationally. Trump has independent crossover appeal in states like PA and MI.
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