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Old 05-20-2016, 08:55 AM   #931
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Originally Posted by BEAL View Post
Debating polls this far out seems pointless. It will change, and drastically.

Trump has seen a surge in his polling because he is now the nominee of the GOP. Historically the candidate who wins the nomination sees a surge.

Once the dem side is sorted (meaning Bernie concedes), you'll start seeing Clinton's numbers rise as well.

And wait for the debates as well. Trump can do well 1v16, but 1:1 he's going to struggle and struggle bad.


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Exactly right. Every one of these polls are nonsense right now. After the conventions and running mates are chosen, and then maybe after the first debate. That is when we can have some actual meaningful numbers.
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Old 05-20-2016, 09:05 AM   #932
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It's kinda funny - I often read Bernie Sanders' Dank Meme Stash on Facebook for the laughs, and occasionally I see people posting actually Marxist things, like Lenin quotes or "seize the means of production" type sayings. Once I even saw someone throw up a picture of Stalin with some alleged quote of his. It makes me chuckle, because I have to wonder if these people have actually looked at Sanders's platform. $15 minimum wage =/= "seize the means of production", regardless of the merits or lack thereof of either proposition.


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I mean, after all, it is just a meme page.

Similarly, I do get a kick out of seeing some Bernie-supporting commentators on Jacobin magazine's Facebook articles take issue with the notion of socialism being anti-capitalist in its definition, followed by 'but the Nordic countries are really great why can't be that type of socialist'.
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Old 05-20-2016, 09:14 AM   #933
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That's not incorrect.

No, this is absolutely correct.
No, it doesn't mean that to liberal Dems, or even most left-leaning ones. BUT, conservative Dems, and everyone to the right of that will really, really be skeptical, if not downright scared and hateful of someone with the socialist title.

Here is the thing. Right now, not one negative ad has been run against Sanders.

Imagine nearly a billion dollars worth of ads saying:

What do we really know about Bernie Sanders.
A Proud Socialist! Declaring he wants to rid America of our personal freedoms and capitalist foundations. (Insert some random out of context soundbite from Sanders)

He and his wife "honeymooned" in Communist Russia and he still praises and supports Communist dictator Castro (Insert video of him praising Castro)

His plan includes taking away all of your rights to privately chose healthcare from a doctor of your choice, expanding the government by nearly 50%!, increasing taxes on all Americans, with our job creators being taxed at a total rate of over 70%.

Sanders doesn't want to be president of the America we know and love. He wants to tear our very country down and build up a socialist empire.
(Insert another video of some out of context ranting)

Vote Trump to ensure a strong American future.

and scene

Played over and over again. That squishy middle of the electorate will flee to Trump, I guarantee you.
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Old 05-20-2016, 09:28 AM   #934
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I disagree with a lot of people in this thread, but - I'm not sure you realise that Vlad is not an electoral pragmatist.
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Old 05-20-2016, 09:42 AM   #935
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Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
No, this is absolutely correct.
I wasn't disagreeing. Equating communism with socialism is actually accurate, though not quite in the same way that fearmongerers would suggest.


Quote:
No, it doesn't mean that to liberal Dems, or even most left-leaning ones. BUT, conservative Dems, and everyone to the right of that will really, really be skeptical, if not downright scared and hateful of someone with the socialist title.
Of course they would be, it goes without saying. I'm not bothered by right wingers being upset at the 'socialist' label.

Quote:
Here is the thing. Right now, not one negative ad has been run against Sanders.

Imagine nearly a billion dollars worth of ads saying:

What do we really know about Bernie Sanders.
A Proud Socialist! Declaring he wants to rid America of our personal freedoms and capitalist foundations. (Insert some random out of context soundbite from Sanders)

He and his wife "honeymooned" in Communist Russia and he still praises and supports Communist dictator Castro (Insert video of him praising Castro)

His plan includes taking away all of your rights to privately chose healthcare from a doctor of your choice, expanding the government by nearly 50%!, increasing taxes on all Americans, with our job creators being taxed at a total rate of over 70%.

Sanders doesn't want to be president of the America we know and love. He wants to tear our very country down and build up a socialist empire.
(Insert another video of some out of context ranting)

Vote Trump to ensure a strong American future.

and scene

Played over and over again. That squishy middle of the electorate will flee to Trump, I guarantee you.
I ... I don't particularly care about this? If Sanders was in that position I wouldn't be particularly worried about how Trump would decide to paint him in campaign ads. It would be a fight that cannot be avoided.
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Old 05-20-2016, 09:58 AM   #936
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Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2 View Post
I wasn't disagreeing. Equating communism with socialism is actually accurate, though not quite in the same way that fearmongerers would suggest.




Of course they would be, it goes without saying. I'm not bothered by right wingers being upset at the 'socialist' label.



I ... I don't particularly care about this? If Sanders was in that position I wouldn't be particularly worried about how Trump would decide to paint him in campaign ads. It would be a fight that cannot be avoided.

I am not worried about right wingers thoughts on socialism/communism either. That is a lost cause. But even this year, i think the fight is always won by getting those people in the middle. Usually they are the least engaged, and informed. So they believe what is fed to them. I think they would be very wary of Sanders and that along with Sanders shaky support with minorities could lead to a Trump win.

Anyway, you are right. It is going to be a big fight, no matter who is the nominee. It's gonnna get crazy.
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Old 05-20-2016, 10:16 AM   #937
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i wonder what Sanders' demands would be if he were only losing by 2m votes.
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Old 05-20-2016, 12:36 PM   #938
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Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
I am not worried about right wingers thoughts on socialism/communism either. That is a lost cause. But even this year, i think the fight is always won by getting those people in the middle. Usually they are the least engaged, and informed. So they believe what is fed to them. I think they would be very wary of Sanders and that along with Sanders shaky support with minorities could lead to a Trump win.

Anyway, you are right. It is going to be a big fight, no matter who is the nominee. It's gonnna get crazy.

That is completely wrong.

1) Sanders is the one who is actually drawing people in the middle, both based on polling and the fact that millions of those people are actually showing up to vote for the guy in the primaries.

2) Sanders doesn't have "shaky support" with minorities. They're just voting for Clinton for their own reasons - a lot of it being name recognition. Again, his favorability within the party is practically hitting the ceiling. Minorities would have no problem voting for the guy if he where the Democratic nominee.

People need to stop pretending like the idiosyncratic nature of a small group of primary/caucus voters represents how a much larger voting base in a particular state will happen to vote, especially when resources weren't spent evenly whatsoever from one state to the next (such as the Sanders campaign not spending a single dollar in at least a dozen states). Is Clinton now doomed to lose Vermont and Washington in the general election because she got whomped there? Of course not.

I still think the public's general reaction to the Socialist label would be one big "so what?" and the advertisements would be entirely ineffective. If it were so damaging, we wouldn't see Sanders holding such high favorability ratings with both the general public and within his own party. This is 2016, not 1956. Hell, Republicans used that very line of attack against Obama and gained no real traction with it.
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Old 05-20-2016, 12:41 PM   #939
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I still think the public's general reaction to the Socialist label would be one big "so what?"

You keep saying this, but what are you basing this on? Do you not remember 2008?

Yes, people are scared by it, even within the Dem party.


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Old 05-20-2016, 12:46 PM   #940
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One of the reasons i voted for Clinton was because i feel her Minimum wage plan is much more well thought out, balanced and passable.
1) She had no problem jumping on the bandwagon when New York state recently passed a $15 minimum wage.

2) People need to stop holding onto the myth of incremental progress. There's been multiple editorials from bright minds bringing up the point that getting things through congress actually tends to happen exceedingly fast for the left, but only when they have these short windows of actually holding the congress (and better, the Presidency as well). Failures in health care reform in the 90s, for example, have nothing to do with ObamaCare which itself can be traced back to a push for health care reform that began in congress (which the Democrats controlled) right before the 2008 primary season.

$12 an hour will never pass with Republicans in there, but $15 can easily pass if Democrats hold Congress and the Presidency, especially since it's what these officials constituents will demand. Plus, $15 an hour will be worth like $13 anyway in today's dollars by the next time Democrats have that sort of control. I'm a proponent of thinking big if something can reasonably be passed by a Democratic congress and that there's absolutely zero advantages to attempting legislation that might get Republican votes when we all know that never happens. Case in point? Roughly the first five years of Obama's Presidency before he wised up and too this hard line stance of pushing things through the executive branch.

You can debate your own economic merits of the $15 wage although it really won't be too big of an adjustment for this country given the studies we've seen on it. There will be job losses in some industries/areas, but the collective benefit in income (particularly for the service industry) would do a lot to really get the economy moving again as none of these people are really able to spend much with their current checks. But actually getting passed? That's a cake walk once Democrats have control. I imagine it would happen almost immediately, even, although they might step up the rate increases year-by-year and have $15 occur like six years down the road or whatever.
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Old 05-20-2016, 12:48 PM   #941
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You keep saying this, but what are you basing this on? Do you not remember 2008?

Yes, people are scared by it, even within the Dem party.
What is there to remember by it? Obama handily trounced McCain and won the Presidency.

The Democrats that were "scared" by it were mainly older, whiter voters for whom that was an issue in the past, but they were really just scared of Obama being black. Once again, they have their favorite white candidate to vote for in the primaries, now that she's back in the hunt.
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Old 05-20-2016, 01:01 PM   #942
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That is completely wrong.

1) Sanders is the one who is actually drawing people in the middle, both based on polling and the fact that millions of those people are actually showing up to vote for the guy in the primaries.

do you have evidence for this? evidence that these are people who would not vote if not for Bernie? what are those numbers? how do we know they are in the middle? if there are so many, why is he so far behind? much farther behind that HRC ever was in 2008.



Quote:
2) Sanders doesn't have "shaky support" with minorities. They're just voting for Clinton for their own reasons - a lot of it being name recognition. Again, his favorability within the party is practically hitting the ceiling. Minorities would have no problem voting for the guy if he where the Democratic nominee.

while i agree that most Democrats would vote for Sanders in the general (not so sure about those in the middle or moderate Republicans), i think your explanation for her strong minority support is pretty patronizing. you're doing to minorities what you think the Democratic party does to the white far left -- expecting them to fall in line because they won't have any other options in November.
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Old 05-20-2016, 01:02 PM   #943
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1) She had no problem jumping on the bandwagon when New York state recently passed a $15 minimum wage.

2) People need to stop holding onto the myth of incremental progress. There's been multiple editorials from bright minds bringing up the point that getting things through congress actually tends to happen exceedingly fast for the left, but only when they have these short windows of actually holding the congress (and better, the Presidency as well). Failures in health care reform in the 90s, for example, have nothing to do with ObamaCare which itself can be traced back to a push for health care reform that began in congress (which the Democrats controlled) right before the 2008 primary season.

$12 an hour will never pass with Republicans in there, but $15 can easily pass if Democrats hold Congress and the Presidency, especially since it's what these officials constituents will demand. Plus, $15 an hour will be worth like $13 anyway in today's dollars by the next time Democrats have that sort of control. I'm a proponent of thinking big if something can reasonably be passed by a Democratic congress and that there's absolutely zero advantages to attempting legislation that might get Republican votes when we all know that never happens. Case in point? Roughly the first five years of Obama's Presidency before he wised up and too this hard line stance of pushing things through the executive branch.

You can debate your own economic merits of the $15 wage although it really won't be too big of an adjustment for this country given the studies we've seen on it. There will be job losses in some industries/areas, but the collective benefit in income (particularly for the service industry) would do a lot to really get the economy moving again as none of these people are really able to spend much with their current checks. But actually getting passed? That's a cake walk once Democrats have control. I imagine it would happen almost immediately, even, although they might step up the rate increases year-by-year and have $15 occur like six years down the road or whatever.

No, No, No. Sorry.

First, she didn't just "jump on board" with 15 in New York.
She has always supported the Dem plan of 12 dollar fed wage and 15 or more for any high cost of living metro area that sees fit.
She stood by every major city that raised their wage to 15.

If anyone "jumped on" it's Sanders.
He jumped on the "fight for 15". Why? Because its like all his other proposals. Sounds great. Shout it out, rile up the crowd. Send in your 27 dollars. Rinse and repeat.

Like i have said here numerous times.

A 2 bedroom apt in NY, LA, San Fran, Boston, etc... 2000 to 3000 or so.
A 2 bedroom apt in Lena, IL. Or Chester, OK is 500 a month.

The economic reality and result/consequence of this wage hike, is vastly different in large cities with hundreds of thousands of businesses and major industries, than it is for the 10's of thousands of rural communities around the country.

passing a FED minimum of 15 makes absolutely no sense. Clintons take is right on, and is in line with liberal states like Oregon, and i believe NY, that passed 15 in metro areas, and lower wages in rural areas.

It doesn't matter if we get the senate and congress back in this respect, it still doesn't make Sanders plan right.
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Old 05-20-2016, 01:04 PM   #944
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multiple editorials from bright minds






Quote:
$12 an hour will never pass with Republicans in there, but $15 can easily pass if Democrats hold Congress and the Presidency,

agreed. so we'll look forward to you and the rest of the Sanders people, and especially Bernie Sanders himself, helping out the Democratic Party in the fall so they can take back at least the Senate, which is totally possible.

i'll totally feel the Bern then.

i really will.
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Old 05-20-2016, 01:17 PM   #945
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agreed. so we'll look forward to you and the rest of the Sanders people, and especially Bernie Sanders himself, helping out the Democratic Party in the fall so they can take back at least the Senate, which is totally possible.

i'll totally feel the Bern then.

i really will.
This is one of the many frustrating aspects of the Bernie campaign. He's done next to nothing to help gather the support needed down the ticket.

The ONLY way he would get any of his proposals through is to have a D majority in both houses.

Clinton has been on the trail campaigning for those in her party. Maybe I've missed it, but Bernie hasn't.
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