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Old 05-11-2016, 10:23 AM   #661
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread - VIII

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilsFan View Post
Previously, I scoffed at the notion that there was as much crossover between the Sanders and Trump camps, but even I have to admit I was wrong. I, like probably many of us, was thinking of myself and like-minded people, because I managed to fall into the trap of believing that Sanders' voter base was 20-somethings who are pissed about income inequality. While that is a sizable and not inconsequential base (one that I've noticed many of Clinton's media supporters love to yell "WE DON'T NEED YOUR VOTE" at, but I digress) we're all forgetting about constituencies like West Virginia. Like this absolute piece of shit article that treats everyone in that state, and others who have suffered immensely from economic downturn in small town America, as if they are totally irrelevant. Desperation is very real, but that makes for uncomfortable realities, especially for the pundits who make their living reporting on the election game. So let's just call them disgruntled white men and move on! There is no other possible way they would show the voting habits that they have shown.

This isn't meant to support the "Bernie or Bust" movement, which is absurd and not something I am apart of. But acting like there are only four or five neat little boxes to pile the electorate into has gotten us in a whole lot of trouble before. And let's be clear: Clinton has not shown once to have a good understanding of voters. The Dems can very well still blow this election, and if they do it will be because they have shown to be wholly incompetent.



In agree that the Democrats have, traditionally, showed an uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and someone who is "not a natural politician" like HRC worries me.

I'm not so worried about her lack of white support in comparison to 2008, because I think a lot of her white support in states like WV and OH and PA were due to the fact that she was running against a black man. But I am worried about her ability to win the Bernie voters -- young and liberal or neither -- now that she's the almost certain nominee.

It does seem like we're back to the notion that Sanders and Trump are speaking to/demagoging the same fears. I agree that there's an ivory tower around journalists in DC and NYC -- or in this case London, where the author is likely trying to reassure a nervous liberal London readership -- that prohibits understanding why why people vote the way that they do. I think you hear journalists reflecting the language of campaigns which really do run on data and demographics in increasingly sophisticated ways. But that may be inadequate to address a decision (voting) that is at least in part emotional, especially now at the end of one era (Obama) and the beginning of the next, and with the worst of the economic crisis behind us but a (for many) less appealing future in front of us. Sanders/Trump share an emotional language and invective towards easy enemies (Bankers/Mexicans) that goes far in times like these.

We're on our 14th consecutive day with measurable precipitation here inside the Beltway. There's been no sun to speak of, and none likely until at least the weekend, then after what looks like another week of clouds and rain. Everyone is talking about the gloom. It's mid-May. The best time of year in this city. What happened to our famous spring weather we're promised after a bleak winter? Outside its America?
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Old 05-11-2016, 10:42 AM   #662
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It does seem like we're back to the notion that Sanders and Trump are speaking to/demagoging the same fears.

Oh come on now. I hate having to be the "guy who defends Sanders" because I'm not so sure I'd want him as my president. I'm also one of the people who has suggested they share a sizable amount of their electorate. But not because they're playing to people's fears.

Sanders is by no means playing down to peoples' fears. Are he and Trump both firebrands? Definitely. Most presidential candidates tend to be. But the reason they'd share a voting base is because of individuals who are irritated with establishment politics, who don't have strong core beliefs. i.e. a decent amount of disaffected independents.
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Old 05-11-2016, 10:47 AM   #663
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Oh come on now. I hate having to be the "guy who defends Sanders" because I'm not so sure I'd want him as my president. I'm also one of the people who has suggested they share a sizable amount of their electorate. But not because they're playing to people's fears.

Sanders is by no means playing down to peoples' fears. Are he and Trump both firebrands? Definitely. Most presidential candidates tend to be. But the reason they'd share a voting base is because of individuals who are irritated with establishment politics, who don't have strong core beliefs. i.e. a decent amount of disaffected independents.


i feel comfortable saying they are both demagogues. they *are* playing to people's fears, offering simplistic solutions to complex problems, and among the things they're both blaming is "the establishment" (whatever that is). it's no surprise that they have overlapping voter bases.

the difference is Sanders' diagnosis of the situation is much better than Trump's.
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Old 05-11-2016, 10:58 AM   #664
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Isn't Hillary's recent counter-punch to Trump's whole "Make America Great Again" thing "America Is Already Great"? I thought I saw the Democratic Party trying to sell hats like that. That's exactly the shit I'm talking about. Sanders and Trump ARE speaking to people's fears, because Clinton isn't. Clinton is quite often pretending they don't exist. Which sort of gets back to why Hillary is such an unpalatable candidate to many on the left: her whole platform is essentially American Exceptionalism.
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:01 AM   #665
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
i feel comfortable saying they are both demagogues. they *are* playing to people's fears, offering simplistic solutions to complex problems, and among the things they're both blaming is "the establishment" (whatever that is). it's no surprise that they have overlapping voter bases.



the difference is Sanders' diagnosis of the situation is much better than Trump's.

Being a demagogue and playing to someone's fears are not the same thing. By all means, call Sanders a demagogue.

You come off with a big Clinton bias when you say something like this. I don't know what fears Sanders plays to, and I certainly don't know how they're the same as Trump. He's not going after immigrants and people of different religions as scapegoats. He's not blaming foreign countries for our trouble. He's not overstating foreign terrorism and ISIS. These aren't the same at all.

And if you don't know what the establishment is after this primary election cycle, I don't think you've been paying attention.
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:11 AM   #666
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Isn't Hillary's recent counter-punch to Trump's whole "Make America Great Again" thing "America Is Already Great"? I thought I saw the Democratic Party trying to sell hats like that. That's exactly the shit I'm talking about. Sanders and Trump ARE speaking to people's fears, because Clinton isn't. Clinton is quite often pretending they don't exist. Which sort of gets back to why Hillary is such an unpalatable candidate to many on the left: her whole platform is essentially American Exceptionalism.

I thought Hilary's counter to the absurd Trump slogan is one of the best things she has said, on the superficial scale. We don't need to make America great again, because on the whole it's already pretty great.

Of course she followed it up with nonsensical babble saying we need to make it "whole again," which made me barf a little bit. I think she was trying to say we just need to go back to working on the things we aren't so great at, even if overall it's pretty great. Didn't come out that well, though.
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:18 AM   #667
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her whole platform is essentially American Exceptionalism.
I've never once gathered this from Clinton's platform, I think she was just countering Trump's platform which is unapologetically regressing to "the good ole days".
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:25 AM   #668
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You come off with a big Clinton bias when you say something like this.

yeah, see, this is what's starting to get to me about this cycle. because i've criticized Sanders, i'm now filled with "Clinton bias" -- as if preferring one candidate to another after careful consideration means one is incapable of clear thinking. when you do this, you sound like a conservative pundit claiming "media bias." it's feeling like the "true progressive" card is being played in moments like these.

Sanders has consistently said that the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few is the root cause of all of America's problems. he blames the banks, and the "millionaires and billionaires." that's non-specific, he's offered no real solution beyond taxes, and it's a message designed to appeal to lower socio-economic classes (and their sympathizers). that IS the definition of a demagogue.

i have searched myself, deeply, as to why i can't get on the Sanders train this election cycle. i obviously admire Obama, and have never loved HRC, especially in 2008. but as this campaign wears on, and i increasingly come to the realization that Bernie is scapegoating me by virtue of vowing to raise my taxes and tax me at the same rate as people who make double or triple my salary, and for him to say that i'm the problem, somehow, is really irritating. i agree with progressive taxation. i think single payer is better. i believe in regulation. but i also find myself right in that income bracket that's going to be squeezed the most, and also feel the most pain because i look rich on paper to Sanders -- who lumps me in, through his tax plan, as a "millionaire and billionaire" -- even if reality is vastly different.

maybe i've changed. maybe you do get more conservative when you get older. maybe if you have actually laid down roots and put stakes into the present you do have something to lose in a way that you don't when you were 23. i have every reason to want the present to get incrementally better, i have no reason to want some sort of vague "do you hear the people sing" white nonsense. adults know that problems aren't solved with "political revolution." what a dumbshit, empty phrase. if we want to take the most successful social movement of the past 10 years, same-sex marriage, we have to go back to its roots in 1993 in Hawaii. and then Vermont. or even the AIDS crisis. and then dozens of tiny battles waged over decades that culminated in a sea change. there is no revolution. there is only the hard work and toil of people willing to roll up their sleeves and do the work necessary. people like Evan Wolfson, for example.

finally, i am quite sympathetic to people who have worked for the Democratic party for years, who have worked to win the Senate, the Congress, to put up viable candidates so we can have a national party that can compete with the organized and disciplined Republicans, and then a candidate for their party's nomination turns around and calls them "establishment" and pretends that they are the enemy. i can understand the irritation of NARAL or Planned Parenthood at being called "establishment." a lot of these people are very much "fuck off, Bernie. where the fuck have you been these past 25 years? awfully fucking easy to be pure when you only have to win a state of 660,000 people. the rest of us live in the real world."





Quote:
I don't know what fears Sanders plays to, and I certainly don't know how they're the same as Trump.
both men play to fear of the future in what has become the New Normal.


Quote:
He's not going after immigrants and people of different religions as scapegoats. He's not blaming foreign countries for our trouble. He's not overstating foreign terrorism and ISIS. These aren't the same at all.

i'm not comparing what their blaming, i am comparing how they are appealing to voters. through fear and loathing of a vague, all-powerful group of people who are stealing their futures from them. we're talking blueprints, not specifics.


Quote:
And if you don't know what the establishment is after this primary election cycle, I don't think you've been paying attention.

define it for me.
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:37 AM   #669
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I thought Hilary's counter to the absurd Trump slogan is one of the best things she has said, on the superficial scale. We don't need to make America great again, because on the whole it's already pretty great.

Of course she followed it up with nonsensical babble saying we need to make it "whole again," which made me barf a little bit. I think she was trying to say we just need to go back to working on the things we aren't so great at, even if overall it's pretty great. Didn't come out that well, though.
You see, this is exactly what I'm talking about. It goes back to what Headache and I were discussing with "white privilege" a couple pages back. Do you think the people in this country who have had a really rough go of it financially for quite a while want to hear about how great America is? It hasn't been great for them. And it's incredibly tone deaf of Clinton to talk about how great America is when so many are struggling. But as the media people who eat up her campaign talking points are so thrilled to tell us: she does not need their votes because, according to her numbers, most of them come from demographics she doesn't care about.
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:38 AM   #670
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I've never once gathered this from Clinton's platform, I think she was just countering Trump's platform which is unapologetically regressing to "the good ole days".
You haven't gathered it from her foreign policy?
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:40 AM   #671
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Well said PhilsFan in your OP.

I said it once before there maybe a legit crossover of Bernie voters to Trump whether to spite Clinton herself or to take down the entrenched.

There was a poll that show 10-20% of Bernie voters crossing over to Trump. And another percentage staying home.




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Old 05-11-2016, 11:40 AM   #672
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Wait, what? I don't see how Sanders is a demagogue. Populist, perhaps. Demagogue, no.

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adults know that problems aren't solved with "political revolution." what a dumbshit, empty phrase.
Paging Vlad...
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:44 AM   #673
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You haven't gathered it from her foreign policy?
She might be a little more hawkish, but she's not nation-building anytime soon.
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Old 05-11-2016, 11:51 AM   #674
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dem·a·gogue
ˈdeməˌɡäɡ/
noun
a political leader who seeks support by appealing to popular desires and prejudices rather than by using rational argument.
synonyms: rabble-rouser, agitator, political agitator, soapbox orator, firebrand, fomenter, provocateur
"he was drawn into a circle of campus demagogues"
(in ancient Greece and Rome) a leader or orator who espoused the cause of the common people.
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Old 05-11-2016, 12:01 PM   #675
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Wait, what? I don't see how Sanders is a demagogue. Populist, perhaps. Demagogue, no.







Paging Vlad...

I suppose a demagogue and a populist are two similar things. One could make an argument, but I would be on the side of saying he's not. Not unless every firebrand populist is a demagogue.
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