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Old 04-30-2016, 12:25 AM   #181
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I'll counter all of your infighting by saying that ganging up on an infighter is worse than infighting itself.
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Old 04-30-2016, 06:47 AM   #182
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I'm considering changing my mind on Trump. I mean if he can turn an 8,000 seat amphitheater into 30,000 people without as much as putting a shovel in the ground, what can't he do?
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Old 04-30-2016, 07:12 AM   #183
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Old 04-30-2016, 12:31 PM   #184
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2016 US Presidential Election Thread - VIII

Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. Under what scenarios could he get to 270 EV? Barring a national catastrophe like a terrorist attack with mass death that could drive voters into the arms of an authoritarian, what states could he flip? I guess one answer would be New York, but does that seem possible?
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Old 04-30-2016, 12:37 PM   #185
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I think it would take a terrorist attack to give Trump a legit chance.

If he was going against Bernie, I really don't know.

If Trump starts cooling his racist, sexist, any other crap.....he might do a lil better but won't flip Florida or Ohio


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Old 04-30-2016, 12:54 PM   #186
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You guys should stop rationalizing Trump.
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Old 04-30-2016, 01:53 PM   #187
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Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. Under what scenarios could he get to 270 EV? Barring a national catastrophe like a terrorist attack with mass death that could drive voters into the arms of an authoritarian, what states could he flip? I guess one answer would be New York, but does that seem possible?
Are you sure he can not get FL?
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:07 PM   #188
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People like Clinton in Florida. She doesn't face any issue here. It's getting bluer and bluer, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. There's a real north/south divide, but south and central Florida have booming populations of transplant residents and Floridian echo boomers of said transplants. Despite being a swing state, the numbers are a little more telling.

Back in 2000, I'm pretty sure Orange County was 60/40 Bush. It moved to a close 50/50 Obama in 2008, and then a 60/40 Obama in 2012. I'm not 100% on these numbers, but the point is that even though the results might seem close, the trend is large urban population growth (which equates to progressivism). I really don't see competition here.
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:20 PM   #189
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yeah, I know you are the Rubio guy in Florida

but I think you are wrong, everybody has been underestimating Trump this whole time, nobody thought he would do as well as he did in most of the primaries he has been winning, they call him the biggest story this election cycle, the real story is how lousy Hillary is doing, a third rate senator like Sanders giving her a race shows what a weaken candidate she is, she is a joke. She was really something in 2008, amazing what she has become, it would be sad, if she did not deserve it.
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:29 PM   #190
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I would not be surprised if a true lame-duck (post election) Obama gives Hillary a blanket pardon, like Ford gave Nixon.
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:32 PM   #191
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Are you sure he can not get FL?


I'm not sure of anything. That's why I was asking.
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:43 PM   #192
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yeah, I know you are the Rubio guy in Florida



but I think you are wrong, everybody has been underestimating Trump this whole time, nobody thought he would do as well as he did in most of the primaries he has been winning, they call him the biggest story this election cycle, the real story is how lousy Hillary is doing, a third rate senator like Sanders giving her a race shows what a weaken candidate she is, she is a joke. She was really something in 2008, amazing what she has become, it would be sad, if she did not deserve it.

I think people underestimated his ability to be the front runner.

There's nothing out of the ordinary about someone being a front runner. Just because he can win his draconic party's primaries doesn't mean he's suddenly going to start undoing states and their voting tendencies.

Nobody gives a shit if Donald Trump is a big story. When you put him up square against the opposite side, especially in Florida, he's going to lose. Sanders didn't give Clinton a run for her money in Florida. She has the backing of the Hispanic community here.

And, I mean, we can all read the narrative and pretend like Clinton is not performing well. But, every time she's been put on the spot, she's performed. Every time Sanders had the opportunity to make Hillary sweat, she shellacked him. Ohio. Florida. Illinois. New York. This race has routinely come close to being close, but never has been truly close. She had to let it be close. Destroying her competition meant alienating her base.

We get it. You're a Trump guy. But there's zero measure as to why Trump would win Florida. Just as there's zero measure as to why he'd win New York. It's a narrative and that's it. Zero reasons to believe he is going to flip either of those states. Certainly a total freaking joke to think he stands a chance in New York.
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:43 PM   #193
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I tell you that Trump rally I attended at the same venue I attended one for Bill Clinton in 1992 was an eye opener. There were 'Gays for Trump' signs along with the Latinos and Blacks for Trumps signs. No it did not look like a DNC convention, but it was not a tea-party crowd either. I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush. Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs. I believe he can get a better portion of the black vote than Romney or McCain because many blacks are are on the losing end of illegal immigration. Not sure he will win on Nov, but I think a surging Trump vs a weakened Hillary is a good race.
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:54 PM   #194
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I tell you that Trump rally I attended at the same venue I attended one for Bill Clinton in 1992 was an eye opener. There were 'Gays for Trump' signs along with the Latinos and Blacks for Trumps signs. No it did not look like a DNC convention, but it was not a tea-party crowd either. I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush. Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs. I believe he can get a better portion of the black vote than Romney or McCain because many blacks are are on the losing end of illegal immigration. Not sure he will win on Nov, but I think a surging Trump vs a weakened Hillary is a good race.

Well, just throwing this out there: his "gay friendliness" doesn't get him anywhere. Just like it doesn't get Kasich anywhere. While that allows some of the LGBT community to vote for them, individuals in the LGBT community tend to expect a champion these days. So, nobody gives a shit if they're "gay friendly." It doesn't get them anything. The only thing that does is stop them from being alienated by 50% of the country for having ass backwards views. For every 1 "gays for Trump" sign you saw, there's probably a couple hundred thousand gay people who absolutely will not vote for Donald Trump.

Need I remind you, dumb people come in all shapes, sizes, genders, ethnicities, political beliefs, etc. Just because someone is gay doesn't guarantee they fail to be either stupid or a hypocrite. You saw an idiot holding a sign. That's not indicative of the gay community rallying behind Trump. It's some guy holding a fucking sign.

I have zero idea what you're talking about with blacks being on the losing end of illegal immigration. They've probably been legal longer than your family has.

Also, I have no idea what you're talking about with Latinos. The damage was done a long time ago. Those communities don't see Trump's rhetoric as about better jobs. They see him as a racist. The numbers don't lie. Women and Latinos, nationally, heavily disfavor Trump, for his rhetoric. They're not going to forget.
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Old 04-30-2016, 02:55 PM   #195
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We get it. You're a Trump guy. But there's zero measure as to why Trump would win Florida. Just as there's zero measure as to why he'd win New York. It's a narrative and that's it. Zero reasons to believe he is going to flip either of those states. Certainly a total freaking joke to think he stands a chance in New York.
I always want the best candidate in each party to get the nomination

so Hillary, of course

the GOP this time has been a bit of a dilemma, Cruz is about the worst, I tend to be risk averse. Trump is a wild card, a disrupter, as Sanders would be if he got elected. But as I took the time to listen to each of Trumps points, I can do not find any of them to be unreasonable.

Anyone that does not believe the system is totally corrupt and the working stiffs are getting sold out by both sides is not paying attention or is part of the system that wants to live off of others hard work.
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