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Old 03-29-2016, 09:25 AM   #31
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I mean, there are numbers and insight on this.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...illary-clinton

Just grabbed this article as an example and browsed it lightly, but I do believe it says something along the lines of 7% of Sanders voters and 8% of Trump voters could/would cross over.

Play a little numbers game. Each of those candidates have roughly half the vote, so those numbers drop to 3.5-4% of their voters, per party. That's without the Democratic Party turning away their voters, and that is still enough to change the results of an election.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:29 AM   #32
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2016 US Presidential Thread - VII

My fear about Sanders is that there are things in his background and his "policies" that are going to make him a very tough sell to independents. He's still unknown to most of us, especially when you compare him to Clinton and Trump, who we've all gotten to know over the past 25-30 years. That's why their negatives are so high. We know them. We don't know enough about Bernie to hate him yet, but those days are coming especially when the GOP oppo teams get started.

Just one small case-in-point, coming from someone who identifies as mostly progressive and would never vote for a GOP candidate for president: our taxes are projected to go up by over $25k a year under a Sanders administration. That's assuming he gets it passed.

That's a lot of money. And I believe in things like single payer health care and "free" college.

Imagine how your more independent minded swing suburban districts (Fairfax County, the Philly suburbs) of pleasant married straight couples with two cars and kids are going to react to the one thing that has always and will always scare Americans: significantly higher taxes. This isn't getting rid of the ruinous Bush tax cuts and going back to Clinton-era levels of taxation. This is going somewhere else.

If I'm having a tough time swallowing that pill, imagine others who aren't childless married gay urban progressives.

Hillary's general election appeal is that she can and will get Wall Street on her side, especially compared to the clowns on the right. And your taxes will stay about the same, they'll be slightly higher on the very rich.

Is Wall Street and the financial class pure evil? Maybe. But they're also a significant part of our economy, and have the money and clout to win elections (Obama won them over). And they don't want "a revolution."

Bernie may have diagnosed the problem and communicated it in an effective way. And promises of free college and single payer health care are lovely. But not so lovely that moderate suburban voters will happily cough up $25k more in taxes.

We know urban districts will go for the Democrat. We know the exurban/rural areas will go GOP, even with Trump. It's going to come down to the very same districts in swing states that have decided every election since 2000. And people vote their wallets. And I don't have as much faith in youth turnout as I do in black/Latino turnout.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:32 AM   #33
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I disagree with your point about Sanders and independents. That's Clinton's issue, not his. He's doing well with them. I fear Clinton is going to struggle with them, due to lack of complacency with the status quo.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:33 AM   #34
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Too much to catch up on, someone just tell me, I heard Sanders won some states recently, is he growing in his chacnes
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:37 AM   #35
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Too much to catch up on, someone just tell me, I heard Sanders won some states recently, is he growing in his chacnes
His chance of winning is certainly improving.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:38 AM   #36
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Too much to catch up on, someone just tell me, I heard Sanders won some states recently, is he growing in his chacnes

Not really -- he's about to get pounded in New York. Perhaps he's back up to his pre-Ohio odds. He looked like toast, but now he seems to be back where he was.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:52 AM   #37
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2016 US Presidential Thread - VII

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
I disagree with your point about Sanders and independents. That's Clinton's issue, not his. He's doing well with them. I fear Clinton is going to struggle with them, due to lack of complacency with the status quo.


I think it will be tougher in the general and as he becomes more known -- the tax issue I just brought up will become a big liability. I think independents like the status quo. For the most part. That's why they are independents.

For the record, I would vote Sanders in the general.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:55 AM   #38
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I think it will be tougher in the general and as he becomes more known -- the tax issue I just brought up will become a big liability. I think independents like the status quo. For the most part. That's why they are independents.

For the record, I would vote Sanders in the general.

That's the thing though -- I don't think independents like the status quo. Sanders does really well in open states with them. Trump does really well, too.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:16 AM   #39
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That's the thing though -- I don't think independents like the status quo. Sanders does really well in open states with them. Trump does really well, too.


We'll see, I guess. I don't think primaries are an accurate gauge of the general, but you could be right.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:17 AM   #40
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I agree with Irvine. The Bernie Bros seem to be more about the ideas than the execution. I am all for his ideas and have been for some time....but the thought of an additional 25k in taxes a year......maybe we start a lil smaller on his ideas. Free isn't really free. Id rather work towards better healthcare than free college.

Irvine, where did you find your tax info? Is that just the average number for everyone or is it calculated by household numbers?


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Old 03-29-2016, 10:42 AM   #41
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I still think that Hillary is the better bet against Trump (rather than Sanders), but I wouldn't discount the irrational anti-Clinton hatred among the right.

Case in point: I was at my parents over the Easter weekend, and there was plenty of ridicule pointed towards Trump from both of my very conservative parents. It was all fun and games until my dad said, completely seriously "he just may end up being the best choice for the country though." When I said that he would absolutely be the worst choice for the country, he said, incredulously, "you would vote for Hillary over Trump???"

To which I answered "gladly!" And then he brought up the traditional talking points of "she's power hungry" (And Trump isn't???) and "people have died because of her! (aka, BENGHAZI!!!1!)"

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Old 03-29-2016, 10:44 AM   #42
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Too much to catch up on, someone just tell me, I heard Sanders won some states recently, is he growing in his chacnes
No.
He did well in the states over the weekend, just as polls and other statistics had predicted (since the states used a caucus system and were largely white). For following the election I get a lot of info from this site: ElectoralVote

Especially the March 28 update was interesting.
ElectoralVote
Here, the sitemaster(s) discussed the delegates Sanders won (about 66 more than Clinton, reducing Clinton's lead of pledged delegates to about 237). Plus, making a prediction based on statistics/demographics for the primaries in April, he predicts that Clinton will again increase her lead with another 87 delegates).

In short, Sanders is doing very well, much better than initially predicted. But he will not be able to deny Clinton the nomination.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:51 AM   #43
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I still think that Hillary is the better bet against Trump, but I wouldn't discount the irrational anti-Clinton hatred among the right.
True. But there's apparently also a lot of anti-Trump hatred among the right. Some very conservatives would rather vote Hillary as much as it hurts their pride than vote Trump. All just to save the Republican party (and yes, that means losing the election).

And with all of those sexist remarks by Trump Hillary might even become more appealing to Republican women. Of course, she won't win them all over, but with even a small percentage it'll become impossible for Trump to win. There are not enough old(er) white men in the U.S.A. to win the presidency.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:56 AM   #44
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Irvine, where did you find your tax info? Is that just the average number for everyone or is it calculated by household numbers?


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I had to take this and extrapolate a little bit, but it's probably ballpark accurate.

How the candidates' tax plans will affect you, in 4 charts - Vox
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Old 03-29-2016, 11:42 AM   #45
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Republicans will just stay home. They won't vote for Hillary. Maybe if you work in DC and your gravy train lobbying job is in jeopardy if Trump elected then you vote Hillary.


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